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DurandalAI
Member
I really meant to say production constrained. The shorts must have temporarily taken over my fingers with their CNBC transmissions.
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
I can rest you assured, that indeed, production did not begin prior to the year 2000
There were worse days to go all in... 2 of my last 3 purchases are back underwater (remember when it was above 360?
)...But now I get to look forward to holdings going up again
There were worse days to go all in... 2 of my last 3 purchases are back underwater (remember when it was above 360?
But now I get to look forward to holdings going up again
I'm resisting the impluse to borrow some money from myself to buy-in now. With the Macro looking poor, the FUD ramping up, the M3 not, maybe, ramping up, I'm looking for a perfect store end of Q1.
DurandalAI
Member
Back the truck up! I think today will be the bottom of the dip. (I never give advice.)
Reciprocity
Active Member
I traded 348 for 335 so I am fine with that. I am going to sit tight and expect a monster reversal once people realize that trade wars are something that never happens anymore. Trump is right about winning them. Slapping tariffs on US goods would only penalize their own citizens at the same time they have an overall trade imbalance with the US that is like 10:1 - 100:1. Are you going to poke the bear in the eye, or are you going to walk past the sleeping bear very very quietly. China can just devalue its currency to maintain pricing. Its not like they havnt done it before.
One thing this will do however is weaken the dollar. Which will make a company like Tesla that exports half its cars more competitive. A weak dollar is not good in general but its good for net exporters or a company that can decide to export everything they make. Again, this assumes that places like Korea, the Middle East, HK, China, Europe and Canada dont want to poke the sleeping bear. Maybe Tesla will hit that Q3 200,000 US delivery date instead of Q2. Are they flexible enough to do that? Do they have enough demand in those countries listed above? I think so. We will see.
jeewee3000
Active Member
To add to this point, Tesla doesn't want to start taking MY reservations when the majority of Model 3 reservations are still unresolved, because of the fear many Model 3 reservation holders would switch to an MY reservation instead if they prefer that vehicle over the Model 3.
This would possibly create an over-supply of Model 3 vehicles (unimaginable at the moment), ruining Tesla's ability to fund the expensive Model 3 ramp up.
I feel the same. Once the macros stabilize, we'll probably slowly gain back 350. And then Q1 deliveries will take it all away again.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Trump doubles down: 'Trade wars are good, and easy to win'
So Macros are all messed up due to this. Looks like we will know what kind of tariffs will be imposed next Week. Resisting the urge to buy some 20 LEAPS.
President Trump can levy tariffs without Congress ( info on how Pre can impose tariffs without Congress)
opinion .. Looks like he is pissed that Mexican president cancelled DC visit. ...
So Macros are all messed up due to this. Looks like we will know what kind of tariffs will be imposed next Week. Resisting the urge to buy some 20 LEAPS.
President Trump can levy tariffs without Congress ( info on how Pre can impose tariffs without Congress)
opinion .. Looks like he is pissed that Mexican president cancelled DC visit. ...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
If that happens we will see a lot of the April-June people (me included) being pushed out. It will probably be another huge buying opportunity.
If it takes on average 4-6 weeks between VIN registration and delivery. I think that's about it for this quarter : we'll probably get between 11323(previous VIN registration) and 12436 (last VIN registration) M3 delivered this quarter.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Except toward the end of the quarter, Tesla will be bulking the deliveries right near the factory...so some of those deliveries could be within a day or two of popping out of the factory.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I was suspecting that Tesla would register another batch of VIN after they sent out more invitations 2 days ago, guessed right on that, but guessed wrong on market reaction. I thought this might help TSLA stay above $330.
If Tesla doesn't skip too many VINs, this would mean that Tesla will produce ~9-10K M3 in Q1, subtracting ~2400 2017 production from the 11323-12436 range. I think it might turn out to be a repeat of the Q4'17 story, the # won't look great but people will be hoping that the last week of the quarter will signal new hope.
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