TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Richgoogol]

Elon Musk directs Tesla to 'slow down' on Norway deliveries, citing local capacity issues
This may not reflect well on Monday.
Holy *sugar* freaking CNBC, the title started off being to ‘slow down’ on deliveries, but now it got changed to on Norway deliveries. This is ridiculous. Imagine this being released during trading hour.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla’s car shipments in Norway keep being shut down for using ‘dangerous’ transporters, a truck crashed

I have just asked our team to slow down deliveries. It is clear that we are exceeding the local logistics capacity due to batch build and delivery. Customer happiness & safety matter more than a few extra cars this quarter.

 

[avoigt]

Elon Musk directs Tesla to 'slow down' on Norway deliveries, citing local capacity issues
This may not reflect well on Monday.
Holy *sugar* freaking CNBC, the title started off being to ‘slow down’ on deliveries, but now it got changed to on Norway deliveries. This is ridiculous. Imagine this being released during trading hour.

I actually find this a quite impressive situation:

The supply chain of Tesla is that well organized and fast that Norway as a country can't provide enough working trucks and logistics to bring their cars from the ship fast enough to consumers to satisfy demand...

 

[Cobos]

I actually find this a quite impressive situation:

The supply chain of Tesla is that well organized and fast that Norway as a country can't provide enough working trucks and logistics to bring their cars from the ship fast enough to consumers to satisfy demand...

It seems the issue has been they’ve switched from using only Drammen harbour to also using Gothenburg harbour. The transporters from Gothenburg has been bottom feeder companies using Euro III diesels, faulty brakes and summer tires. Those have been stopped at the border mostly. There was 2 accidents with cars on carriers about 2 weeks ago. Supposedly Tesla has been paying Norwegian vehicle inspectors to check the carriers directly in Gothenburg harbour the last few days.
Reference: Vegvesenet kontrollerer Tesla-transportører i Göteborg havn

Cobos

 

[McMuggets]

The knowledge is that the suppliers are seeing the ramping real

Production ramp • r/teslamotors

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Okay, bullish again. Time to load up the truck. Even though we've seen evidence of the ramp taking shape in the form of invites/VIN assignments, Mr. Market is still in denial.

Invites and VIN assignments are real things, meaning Tesla isn't sending those out to manipulate the stock.

I'm not anymore. Two slow days. Production tab, VIN assignments per day. Either everyone that got VIN is partying Friday and Saturday, or there is slowdown again...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...AJNfEF-vzj-vRo-3skcCXgO_Nc/htmlview?sle=true#

 

[EinSV]

I'm not anymore. Two slow days. Production tab, VIN assignments per day. Either everyone that got VIN is partying Friday and Saturday, or there is slowdown again...
Model 3 Invites

FWIW after the new large batch of invites the spreadsheet was overloaded and frequently inaccessible later on Thursday and on Friday due to too many users, so some owners may have given up on entering their data. Not sure about yesterday -- maybe not.

 

[defc0n]

If you think at $45K ASP Tesla can't make $8K profit (17.8%), then that's the crux of disagreement between you and us longs. I don't think you've contributed any new fact here. Only thing I can see is that you're working off a different profitability assumption on the M3. And I think you're wrong. Here are some scenarios. Tesla can use M3 profit to cover their current worst quarterly loss (Q4'17) of $600M if they achieve >20% GM or 10k/wk production rate. If they achieve both, watch out!

View attachment 287372

Going through old conversations, glad to see my math checks out with someone else at 5k/week delivery profit. Thanks for sharing.

Slightly worried that Tesla may not come near that profit margin for quite some time, though.

 

[mongo]

Going through old conversations, glad to see my math checks out with someone else at 5k/week delivery profit. Thanks for sharing.

Slightly worried that Tesla may not come near that profit margin for quite some time, though.

IF I'm thinking of the accoubting correctly, the addition of the Model 3 should also increase GM on S/X due to sharing the plant costs on either a sq footage or unit production basis. Depends where things are broken out at.

 

[defc0n]

IF I'm thinking of the accoubting correctly, the addition of the Model 3 should also increase GM on S/X due to sharing the plant costs on either a sq footage or unit production basis. Depends where things are broken out at.

Do you agree Tesla may be near break even company wide with 60k model 3 deliveries per quarter (5k/wk model 3)?

 

[Waiting4M3]

IF I'm thinking of the accoubting correctly, the addition of the Model 3 should also increase GM on S/X due to sharing the plant costs on either a sq footage or unit production basis. Depends where things are broken out at.

The recent reddit thread on supplier order increase, I read it as the supplier cost is going up. Tesla stated that they've agreed to 60 day terms with most suppliers, so this recent increase in parts order probably won't hit Q1. The potential issue in Q1 is as your commented in the General thread about 5k in April, if Tesla has been stockpiling parts waiting for a jump up in production rate in April, the cost of those stockpiled parts may show up in Q1.

Looking ahead into Q2, the parts cost increase in the reddit report will most likely land in Q2. If Tesla repeats the ramp pattern of Q4'17 and Q1'18, and jump up towards the end of the quarter, then the margin will probably also look bad. The more parts they stockpile, the worse, so Q2 could be even worst than Q1. Q2 is a critical battleground for margin and PPS I think, especially for folks holding J19s. It will make a huge difference for J19s whether TSLA can rise in July vs Oct.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm not anymore. Two slow days. Production tab, VIN assignments per day. Either everyone that got VIN is partying Friday and Saturday, or there is slowdown again...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...AJNfEF-vzj-vRo-3skcCXgO_Nc/htmlview?sle=true#

BTW Sundays usually have low # of VIN assignment reported (for example 3/11 and 3/18), maybe because related personnel at Tesla don't work on Sundays. So don't freak out if you see a 3rd straight slow day and panic sell on Monday morning.

 

[defc0n]

posting current opinion to help keep myself honest when I’m wrong:

- it’s worth making a small bet now as there’s a good chance we’re at another bottom
- if we drop below 298, cut your losses
- wait and see what happens, specifically if we reach 280 and it gets tested

As of this moment I’m optimistic things will be going well for Tesla in Q3.

Disclaimer: you believe anything I say you’re nuts.

 

[Richgoogol]

Not sure if the accident that happened on Friday would cause more volatility on SP next week. Unfortunately the driver has died. Obviously it wuld be dependent on whether the cause was due to autopilot or not, but nevertheless it’s a Tesla and usually short term traders and shorts won’t be too gentle.

 

[replicant]

Elon Musk directs Tesla to 'slow down' on Norway deliveries, citing local capacity issues
This may not reflect well on Monday.
Holy *sugar* freaking CNBC, the title started off being to ‘slow down’ on deliveries, but now it got changed to on Norway deliveries. This is ridiculous. Imagine this being released during trading hour.

I encourage everyone to

1. purchase digital subscriptions (if you can afford them, obviously) and choose websites who do actual journalism
2. install an ad-blocker (on computer and mobile devices)
   
3. and not link directly to click-bait articles

Because I pay for (what I consider) serious and ethical journalism, I now have total peace of mind when blocking ads on websites I don't support financially (because I'm happy to allow non-paying users to browse the website I do support).

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Not sure if the accident that happened on Friday would cause more volatility on SP next week. Unfortunately the driver has died. Obviously it wuld be dependent on whether the cause was due to autopilot or not, but nevertheless it’s a Tesla and usually short term traders and shorts won’t be too gentle.

There is so much noise in the news right now that I'm not sure this unfortunate fatality will have much effect. The potential trade war between the US and China is consuming much of the media oxygen. Apple has a major event on the 27th. Reaction to the Stormy Daniels interview is going to blanket the airwaves tomorrow.

 

[JRP3]

It's not showing up on Yahoo's collection of TSLA FUD articles so I don't think it will have any effect.

 

[Tslynk67]

an intriguing read, since, i think, Iain M Banks "Culture novels" were an influence on Musk and thought processes
A Few Notes on the Culture, by Iain M Banks
(hey, its the weekend relaxed mode)(apologies)

Best sci-fi writer of a generation... Sadly missed. Couldn't say my favourite novel, but the first, Consider Phlebas sets the general tone and way forward beautifully...

 

[Mike Smith]

The top Tesla story on Yahoo is from Market Watch. The first line in the article is:

'Tesla CEO Elon Musk has asked for a slowdown in production of his electric cars in Norway, citing problems tied to the local manufacturing supply chain.'

Tesla's Musk requests first-quarter 'slow down' in deliveries in Norway: reports

Obviously Tesla doesn't produce cars in Norway and has no manufacturing supply chain there, but Yahoo doesn't even look at what they print. Same as CNBC, whose top two news sources are Seeking Alpha and TheSreet.com. CNBC and Yahoo should both be investigated along with Facebook. So many investors lose money due to their false, carefree reporting.

Edit: They corrected the part about production right after I posted this. Unfortunately it still says the problem is with the 'local manufacturing supply chain'. Useless. And maybe they should also mention that this is only going to slightly affect four days of deliveries - maybe 50 cars total shifted into Q2. Shouldn't really even be a story.

 

[RedSquirrel]

I encourage everyone to

1. purchase digital subscriptions (if you can afford them, obviously) and choose websites who do actual journalism
2. install an ad-blocker (on computer and mobile devices)
   
3. and not link directly to click-bait articles

Because I pay for (what I consider) serious and ethical journalism, I now have total peace of mind when blocking ads on websites I don't support financially (because I'm happy to allow non-paying users to browse the website I do support).

I would be happy to pay for good good journalism but haven't found good sites so far, especially when it comes to all things TSLA. I would be open for suggestions.