TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

macros ...

China pledged on Sunday to press ahead with market opening and reforms while reiterating that it will treat domestic and foreign firms equally and protect intellectual property rights

China renews pledges to open economy, protect IP rights China renews pledges to open economy, protect IP rights

 

[avoigt]

macros ...

China pledged on Sunday to press ahead with market opening and reforms while reiterating that it will treat domestic and foreign firms equally and protect intellectual property rights

China renews pledges to open economy, protect IP rights China renews pledges to open economy, protect IP rights

"It will also “give equal protection to property rights of all ownership types by law,” and strengthen protection of intellectual property rights, said He, adding that China would better integrate its financial sector and real economy."

That is big news. If that materializes it could help EM to strike a deal for a GF in China that is fully owned by Tesla.

 

[Mike Smith]

"It will also “give equal protection to property rights of all ownership types by law,” and strengthen protection of intellectual property rights, said He, adding that China would better integrate its financial sector and real economy."

That is big news. If that materializes it could help EM to strike a deal for a GF in China that is fully owned by Tesla.

Now that Musk said publicly that the Obama administration couldn't fix this for them, it's a sure thing Trump will make sure it's part of any deal.

 

[bdy0627]

posting current opinion to help keep myself honest when I’m wrong:

- it’s worth making a small bet now as there’s a good chance we’re at another bottom
- if we drop below 298, cut your losses
- wait and see what happens, specifically if we reach 280 and it gets tested

As of this moment I’m optimistic things will be going well for Tesla in Q3.

Disclaimer: you believe anything I say you’re nuts.

I think there is a decent chance we visit the $290s before climbing again. I believe buying support will be the answer there. I personally don't view that level as a good exit point in an attempt to avoid further freefall from there. The good exit point was well above us. At this point, best to hold or add. Macros are making things very interesting though. The buying support at this point, in part due to macros, may be muted, inviting more shorts to the party. I think if we don't get a strong green candle soon, and instead consolidate a bit, we are at higher risk for dropping further. The macro situation is getting me a little concerned about April calls. Without macro stability, we may not see the usual rapid rise from TSLA that we have been so used to seeing over the past year.

 

[defc0n]

I think there is a decent chance we visit the $290s before climbing again. I believe buying support will be the answer there. I personally don't view that level as a good exit point in an attempt to avoid further freefall from there. The good exit point was well above us. At this point, best to hold or add. Macros are making things very interesting though. The buying support at this point, in part due to macros, may be muted, inviting more shorts to the party. I think if we don't get a strong green candle soon, and instead consolidate a bit, we are at higher risk for dropping further. The macro situation is getting me a little concerned about April calls. Without macro stability, we may not see the usual rapid rise from TSLA that we have been so used to seeing over the past year.

I don’t foresee there being very strong support for 290. Perhaps we will never find out regardless. Tomorrow will be fun.

Market futures are looking quite good right now.

 

[ZenMan]

"It will also “give equal protection to property rights of all ownership types by law,” and strengthen protection of intellectual property rights, said He, adding that China would better integrate its financial sector and real economy."

That is big news. If that materializes it could help EM to strike a deal for a GF in China that is fully owned by Tesla.

This is news in a similar light. From today's Wall Street Journal: "In a letter Messrs. Mnuchin and Lighthizer sent to Mr. Liu late last week, the Trump administration set out specific requests that include a reduction of Chinese tariffs on U.S. automobiles, more Chinese purchases of U.S. semiconductors and greater access to China’s financial sector by American companies, the people said."

So if tariffs on US manufactured Automobiles are reduced substantially, this also strengthens Tesla's negotiating position. They can tell the local Shanghai government that they won't bother to set up a manufacturing plant with billions in local investment, they'll set up where they don't have to share their IP and just export into China and pay the reduced tariff. Hypothesizing this would be 5-7% -- similar to the US tariffs on imported autos.

Edit: Here is the Headline if you want to read the whole article: U.S., China Quietly Seek Trade Solutions After Days of Loud Threats

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

From Twitter, and it's Trip. So probably not true


Global Equities Research Analyst Trip Chowdhry conducted his recent $TSLA factory check on March 25th and notes sold production and solid delivery. In fact, He said between march 11 and march 25 the production of model 3 has improved almost 3x to 4x

Aziz Saba on Twitter

 

[JRP3]

Trips double vision kicking in again.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

From Twitter, and it's Trip. So probably not true


Global Equities Research Analyst Trip Chowdhry conducted his recent $TSLA factory check on March 25th and notes sold production and solid delivery. In fact, He said between march 11 and march 25 the production of model 3 has improved almost 3x to 4x

Aziz Saba on Twitter

View attachment 289274

"3x to 4x" sounds familiar... could this mean that the Grohmann line is already in place and started to ramp even though the 8-K said 2Q18?

 

[Zaxxon]

"3x to 4x" sounds familiar... could this mean that the Grohmann line is already in place and started to ramp even though the 8-K said 2Q18?

More likely it means that Chowdhry be 'Trip'pin again.

 

[HG Wells]

Was expecting a bigger rise this morning.
Had a order in at market just before open but luckily I canceled it.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Me too. I think the good news hast been grabbed yet by markets.

 

[Big Earl]

I just sold some under performing Disney shares and bought some more TSLA at a mouse whisker under $302.

A small loss for what will undoubtedly be a large gain in the coming months.

 

[justvisiting]

Me too. I think the good news hast been grabbed yet by markets.

it sure underperforms the market.
what good news do you mean?

 

[yngwie_2012]

well...that the model3 production is improving, or not?

 

[yngwie_2012]

is there actually a short attack on tsla this mornin?

 

[justvisiting]

well...that the model3 production is improving, or not?

ah okay i see
yeah well nothing official on that, so we will have to wait for official statements, everything else is foggy...

 

[bdy0627]

There is still quite hesitant buying at this point. Investors are considering 2 big uncertainties right now - TSLA quarterly production/deliveries and the overall macro uncertainty. Traders are definitely heading elsewhere into stocks that are more bullish. FOMO appears to be fairly low currently. It will be interesting to see how the market responds after production/deliveries are known and the stock does whatever it does. The bottom line right now is that shorts remain relatively in control, keeping the stock from climbing much.

 

[Wnuk]

This has to been one of the most frustrating stocks I own. It was up near $7 pre market and now is down for the trading day. Shorts have the upper hand sadly. Even though longer term TSLA looks bright, these wild gyrations are difficult to watch.

 

[Tenable]

Everyone, please be very careful. I sold my shorter term positions this morning, sold a ton of shorter term calls against my leaps and bought puts. TSLA is setup horribly. On the technicals we could actually see 270 or 250. This is hard for me to imagine as an uber bull, but I've lost far too much money when I shouldn't have because of my blind love for this company.

Edit: Even as I post this, I'm still too stupid to sell my J20 leaps which I likely should. /sigh. Here's hoping for some good news to make the technicals a moot point.