TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[justvisiting]

Almost all of Elon's stock is at a ridiculously low purchase price, pre-IPO. Cents per share. Also, proportionally, very little of it has been borrowed against; just his (admittedly high) living expenses. His share of Tesla alone is worth (even today) about 20 billion, and he's borrowed a few hundred million. I'd be surprised if he got a margin call short of total bankruptcy.

As for SpaceX, it was $21.5B last July, before Falcon Heavy launched, order book expanded, and a bunch of other good stuff. It's worth considerably more now. And he owns more than half of it.

So your facts are materially incorrect.

Now, speaking as a Moderator, the one thing I really won't tolerate is willfully posting incorrect information, especially if it is repeated. Since you (purport to be*) a new user, this is a warning to you and all the new bears. Zero tolerance for misinformation.

* -- When you first started posting, you never capitalized sentences; very strange for a German person. Now you do. Hmmm.

so he has borrowed "a few hundred million" (lets just assume 300?) and his space x stake ist "several hundred times more" (lets again assume 300) than that. that would put his stake at 300 million x 300 = 90 billion dollars. So the value of Space x would be around 150b or so. that kind of wild exxageration is pretty close to misinformation, wouldnt you say?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Q1 prediction is more or less done now. Deliveries 8 to 9k and Production anywhere between 10 to 14K.

Earlier I was more tilting towards 10k production for Q1. But now my guess is more towards 13-14k. This is with confirmation from many analysts now forecasting weekly production touching 2k. So if we take 6K cars produced by Feb end. And then add 1.5 + 1.5 + 2 + 2 for march that gives 7K. So production should be more towards somewhere between 13 to 14K . VIN registration data over 20 K indicates the same (13+2.7(cars prodcued in 2017) + 5K ( VINS registered early for 2-3 weeks of production in April)).

Also I believe that VINs are assigned to customer post car production. Bcos some are getting their car deliveries in 2-3 days post VIN assignment. So with this assumption if we see VIN assigned in 14k range by 31st we should assume production more than 13K. Even if we do not see VINs assigned over 14k range we should be good. Given the holiday I do not expect too many people to log in and report.

Did you subtract 2600+ cars produced before Q1 from 14K?
All your high expectation achieve is to help depress price if they turn out to be incorrect.
I for one would be very happy with 10K production in Q1, but I don't think we'll be quite there yet. Probably better than 8k-8.5K that I originally expected though...

 

[SteveG3]

so he has borrowed "a few hundred million" (lets just assume 300?) and his space x stake ist "several hundred times more" (lets again assume 300) than that. that would put his stake at 300 million x 300 = 90 billion dollars. So the value of Space x would be around 150b or so. that kind of wild exxageration is pretty close to misinformation, wouldnt you say?

my thought was about $50 million borrowed by Musk and about $10-15 billion of SpaceX owned... so, about SpaceX value about 200-300X than what he’s borrowed.

maybe I’m wrong and he’s borrowed $100 million, then 100-150X.

the exact number is all a side show- now that you see the almost comical scale of Musk’s SpaceX equity alone vs his margin, do you agree the drop we’ve seen in Tesla’s share price (really any drop in Tesla) isn’t putting Musk anywhere near danger of a margin call?

 

[rameshbende]

Did you subtract 2600+ cars produced before Q1 from 14K?
All your high expectation achieve is to help depress price if they turn out to be incorrect.
I for one would be very happy with 10K production in Q1, but I don't think we'll be quite there yet. Probably better than 8k-8.5K that I originally expected though...

Yes I have subtracted to 2.7k.Formula I am using is Highest VIN assigned plus 1k - 2.7k . So if Highest VIN is 14k then 15k- 2.7 gives 12.3k. This with assumption VIN is assigned/communicated to customer after car is produced. Also I am factoring in holiday weekend so I don't expect too many people will report hence production could be more like 13 to 14 k

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

History does not predict the future, but it does have a way of repeating. We just had a dip of 28.5% over 13 trading days with a bottom hopefully set at $248. This dip was not unlike others TSLA has experienced in terms of the percentage drop or duration. How has TSLA acted in the past after larger dips like this? We've had 12 dips of at least 14% over the last 3 years. The dips ranged from 14.4% to 42.0% with an average of 22.2%. This last dip felt pretty dramatic to me, but as it turns out, it's only moderately worse than the average of those 12 larger dips. Given how this one felt, the 42% dip in 2016 must have felt absolutely excruciating, especially for those holding calls.

So, what happened to TSLA after these larger dips? Climbs ranging from 9.5% to 69.5% with an average of 22.7%. 67% of the time, the next climb did not reach the level of the prior peak. However, 92% of them reached 90% of the prior peak. The 1 that didn't still reached 85% of the prior peak, and that peak was 5% below the ATH at the time.

The longest it took TSLA to climb back to 90% of the prior peak (or 85% for the 1 that didn't get to 90%) was 24 trading days. The average was 10 trading days. Only 2 out of the 12 took longer than 14 trading days.

So, who knows what it will do this time, but at least based upon how it has acted in the past, I don't personally expect a lengthy consolidation period here. The dip wasn't particularly unusual, assuming it is over. We won't know for sure until next week. Will the next climb be similar to ones in the past? Who knows, but I wouldn't bet against it.

Can you clarify that 9.5% climb and how that aligns with 92% of them reaching 90% peak, if your sample includes only 14%+ dips? Very useful analysis otherwise!

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes I have subtracted to 2.7k.Formula I am using is Highest VIN assigned plus 1k - 2.7k . So if Highest VIN is 14k then 15k- 2.7 gives 12.3k. This with assumption VIN is assigned/communicated to customer after car is produced. Also I am factoring in holiday weekend so I don't expect too many people will report hence production could be more like 13 to 14 k

Two more factors to consider. Not all VINs are ever produced, and VINs continue filling holes from the highest VIN for days after highest VIN is produced. Check the March 1st highest VIN on diagram below, we're still producing VINs that are lower than it, one month later.

So I'd argue that formula should be Highest VIN - (Vins yet to be produced) - (Vins never to be produced) + (Error of "Highest vin produced"-"Highest reported VIN")-2700

Long way of saying: I think you're too optimistic, and that's not a great thing with Tesla short term. You may not care if you're in stock and your time horizon is long, but there are people that frequent this forum to try to understand and make short term decisions (options and such)

 

[madodel]

Although a Tesla automobile can not be bought on sale, TSLA can. This week there was a great sale on. Many of us went shopping, taking advantage of this infrequent opportunity.
Be bold when others are fearful.

While I appreciate your enthusiasm, any investment is a gamble. I've said this multiple times here, only invest what you can comfortably risk. For everyone that is a different amount. I'm down about $500k on paper (Edit: Not all TSLA) in the past few weeks over the recent insanity and manipulation, and the hemorrhage may not be over yet, but I'll survive. TSLA is a risky investment which will most likely give great rewards at the current price but nothing is guaranteed. Just saying because we have seen people get so caught up in the mission, the potential and the drama that they lose sight of the risk. Be careful out there folks and don't expect this ride to settle down any time soon.

Edit: I left out that I am just another random Internet poster and take what anyone says here including myself for what it cost you. Not an advise, just a caution.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Two more factors to consider. Not all VINs are ever produced, and VINs continue filling holes from the highest VIN for days after highest VIN is produced. Check the March 1st highest VIN on diagram below, we're still producing VINs that are lower than it, one month later.

So I'd argue that formula should be Highest VIN - (Vins yet to be produced) - (Vins never to be produced) + (Error of "Highest vin produced"-"Highest reported VIN")-2700

Long way of saying: I think you're too optimistic, and that's not a great thing with Tesla short term. You may not care if you're in stock and your time horizon is long, but there are people that frequent this forum to try to understand and make short term decisions (options and such)

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I agree that ramesh's estimate is too optimistic.

I think also most people are focusing on the steady rate exiting March instead of Q1 production. First of all Tesla never gave a Q1 total M3 production goal, so nothing to measure against. And second, most people know that Jan-Feb was pretty much stuck at 700/wk, so Q1 production would be dragged down, March exit rate is much more meaningful.

 

[justvisiting]

my thought was about $50 million borrowed by Musk and about $10-15 billion of SpaceX owned... so, about SpaceX value about 200-300X than what he’s borrowed.

maybe I’m wrong and he’s borrowed $100 million, then 100-150X.

the exact number is all a side show- now that you see the almost comical scale of Musk’s SpaceX equity alone vs his margin, do you agree the drop we’ve seen in Tesla’s share price (really any drop in Tesla) isn’t putting Musk anywhere near danger of a margin call?

it sure is a whole lot more, no argument here. But I dont think it is very liquid, and i also think that he would rather save his majority at space x than save tesla should it really come that far (unlikely, yes)

 

[deonb]

Is Ameritrade broken right now?

I have a Buy to Open order for call options in that's stuck. My Limit price is at $10.

However, it's neither executing, nor is the published Bid price going up to $10. What gives?

 

[ABC2D]

Could be because markets are closed?

 

[deonb]

Could be because markets are closed?

 

[bdy0627]

Can you clarify that 9.5% climb and how that aligns with 92% of them reaching 90% peak, if your sample includes only 14%+ dips? Very useful analysis otherwise!

So I filtered out all of the dips except those that were at least a 14% drop from a local peak. There were 12 of these, which I thought was enough to be useful. If I used only dips that were even larger, there just weren't enough to be as useful. The 9.5% climb, which was the smallest climb after all of these dips, happened after a 22% drop from $271 to $211 in October 2015. The stock movement was very choppy at that time leading all the way up to the huge dip in early 2016. Several of the dips and climbs were extremely short, essentially volatility, but still getting to beyond 7%, which was my volatility filter. Anything more than that was treated as a dip/climb rather than ignored as noise. After that 22% drop there was then a short rally over just 4 trading days up to $231, which was 85% of the prior $271 peak. The next day, the stock dropped 12.6% intraday for a new local low. After that, the stock had a series of short dips and climbs of 12-16% with the overall trend slowly climbing until the big dip.

From the larger picture, that small rally was really just high volatility on a dip that bottomed the next day at $202. So, we could filter out that small rally and simply include it in the dip, which would make the dip 25.5% to $202. The next climb from there went up 15.8% to $234, which was 86% of the prior peak $271. So, that climb was still the only one out of twelve that didn't get to 90% of the prior peak, yet it did get to 86%.

If you'd like me to look at it with a different volatility/trend filter, let me know. The suggestion for me is that it would be a surprise if the next climb doesn't get us to around $312, or at the very least $298, before another dip may occur. If you are leveraged, as I am, then it might be worth considering reducing leverage around those levels, at least for shorter term calls. It may also be worth increasing leverage prior to those levels. On the other hand, we could climb 60%+, especially if the production data is strong.

 

[bdy0627]

I agree that ramesh's estimate is too optimistic.

I think also most people are focusing on the steady rate exiting March instead of Q1 production. First of all Tesla never gave a Q1 total M3 production goal, so nothing to measure against. And second, most people know that Jan-Feb was pretty much stuck at 700/wk, so Q1 production would be dragged down, March exit rate is much more meaningful.

Exactly right. Tesla could have low production throughout Q1, and then zoom to 2,500/week and they would achieve their target/guidance of 2,500/week by the end of Q1. I've seen some analysts/shorts suggesting an expectation of 2,500/week average for the quarter, which is totally inaccurate.

 

[X Yes?]

Almost all of Elon's stock is at a ridiculously low purchase price, pre-IPO. Cents per share. Also, proportionally, very little of it has been borrowed against; just his (admittedly high) living expenses. His share of Tesla alone is worth (even today) about 20 billion, and he's borrowed a few hundred million. I'd be surprised if he got a margin call short of total bankruptcy.

As for SpaceX, it was $21.5B last July, before Falcon Heavy launched, order book expanded, and a bunch of other good stuff. It's worth considerably more now. And he owns more than half of it.

So your facts are materially incorrect.

Now, speaking as a Moderator, the one thing I really won't tolerate is willfully posting incorrect information, especially if it is repeated. Since you (purport to be*) a new user, this is a warning to you and all the new bears. Zero tolerance for misinformation.

* -- When you first started posting, you never capitalized sentences; very strange for a German person. Now you do. Hmmm.

Agree on Musk margin calls. He's probably fine or able scrounge some money from Space Ex. For longs, the biggest concern should be all the unresolved margin calls from investors Tues thru Thurs. I've been there, not a good situation to be in. You can stall for 3 or 4 days, but after that brokerages will force you to sell more stock or deposit more money.

 

[Reciprocity]

Exactly right. Tesla could have low production throughout Q1, and then zoom to 2,500/week and they would achieve their target/guidance of 2,500/week by the end of Q1. I've seen some analysts/shorts suggesting an expectation of 2,500/week average for the quarter, which is totally inaccurate.

I agree, but the expectation is that the average going forward on 4/1 is 2500/w and increasing to 5000/w at some point in Q2, which means July 1st going forward would be 5k/w on average. No other targets have been made public beyond that. Anything else is just laziness or dishonesty by the analysts.

 

[bdy0627]

Can you clarify that 9.5% climb and how that aligns with 92% of them reaching 90% peak, if your sample includes only 14%+ dips? Very useful analysis otherwise!

I looked at all the dips again instead with an 11% or 4 day minimum to be included as a separate dip or climb instead of just volatility along a a trend. It didn't change the numbers at all. 11/12 climbs came back to within 90% of the prior peak within a max of 24 trading days, usually much less. The 1 climb that didn't make it back to 90% of the prior peak made it to 86% of that peak.

 

[MitchJi]

Prior to the drop all J20s. Now April, May, June, September, J19, J20. I'm in everything except the black.

Yikes! I'm a little concerned about our June and Septembers (mostly bought when the SP was about $296).

 

[MitchJi]

I for one am glad Tesla is looking out for shareholders by deciding to release this after market hours going into a 3 day weekend. By Monday morning, this is old news and it's back to being all about model 3 production numbers.

By Monday IMO it will be all about model 3 production numbers regardless!

 

[MitchJi]

History does not predict the future, but it does have a way of repeating.

The longest it took TSLA to climb back to 90% of the prior peak (or 85% for the 1 that didn't get to 90%) was 24 trading days. The average was 10 trading days. Only 2 out of the 12 took longer than 14 trading days.

So, who knows what it will do this time, but at least based upon how it has acted in the past, I don't personally expect a lengthy consolidation period here. The dip wasn't particularly unusual, assuming it is over. We won't know for sure until next week. Will the next climb be similar to ones in the past? Who knows, but I wouldn't bet against it.

IMO right now those patterns are only useful to demonstrate what's possible.

IMO right now everything depends on the M3 production numbers.