TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[McMuggets]

Media hates Tesla so much

 

[Reciprocity]

Those won't be behemoths like Audi SUVs or Model Xs, but mostly compact cars like the I.D. (They now call it Neo, which is a pretty sh.tty name) They'll distribute that over several other brands. With 1500 cars per day they should end up with 350k-400k at that plant. That and some other plants, for Audi, Porsche, Skoda and so on and it should be enough to get to 500k or more by 2021.

VW to produce 1,500 EVs daily in Zwickau plant in Saxony - electrive.com

Edit:

If they want sell 500k cars, they seem to be assuming that 5% of their customers may be ready to buy an EV by 2021. It's really not me, that thought this out. I swear it wasn't my plan!

It's going to be awesome if they make 1500 EVs per day. Especially if they are cool like those concept cars they like to show. I'm just telling you, it's not going to happen. Only one place out side of China has that kind of battery capacity. That's Tesla.

For example, the ipace is a good car with lots of demand and Magna could make thousands a week and jag could sell thousands per week. Yet they are only going to produce 10,000 this year. Seems odd to me, it's almost like they don't want to sell them.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

$250 here we come. By Friday or Monday. Regardless of what the market does, this stock cannot hold any gains.

RemindMe! 3 days “TSLA predictions”

"Time" is currently 0 for 1.

TSLA closed at 290.24 today.

RemindMe! 3 days “TSLA predictions”

 

[RobStark]

So jealous of that Robinhood app. Can't access it from Belgium.

Oh well, I'll just be a long term investor and enjoy my almost free health care.

And free protection from the United States Armed Forces.

You are welcome.

 

[Richard007]

Bought 5 more shares today at $293.xx. Can’t resist under $300!
Inching up to 1K shares! @ 676 shares now!

 

[defc0n]

And free protection from the United States Armed Forces.

You are welcome.

heh. I was thinking the exact same thing. 'Merica, subsidizing the western world's defense.

 

[bdy0627]

I got carried away with actions from yesterday and seeing this morning's action it seemed to be that it was going to be a smooth sailing day with a close above $301, so I went pretty aggressive this morning and got burnt again by macro. I'm kicking myself again

Same here. I get the feeling someone knows how to fake out a lot of traders. After the MMD, I thought TSLA responded strongly, so I added accordingly. Turns out, shorts were just waiting to hammer the stock as the general market dropped. The nice thing about TSLA is it's actually very forgiving of short term mistakes like this. It has a nice habit of rising again quickly. If it drops some more then I'll add some more. If it goes up, then I'll sell some trading shares.

 

[defc0n]

I'm still seeing something like $272 or so in the near future. Q1 earnings are T minus 12 days. I'm still holding ALB--only made mouse nuts on that since selling TSLA at 300.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm still seeing something like $272 or so in the near future. Q1 earnings are T minus 12 days. I'm still holding ALB--only made mouse nuts on that since selling TSLA at 300.

Absolutely possible but will be very short lived. Same probably goes for $300+ for now. Ping pong seems to be the order of the day until fear or FOMO ratches up on one side or the other. What will that take? For us bulls, we have to try to factor in the market as well, which makes things just a wee bit challenging these days.

 

[defc0n]

Earnings have been very harsh on a lot of companies this go around, even several of those beating estimates. Very frustrating. There's a good argument to be made TSLA's earnings have already been priced in this quarter to a large degree but I'd still bet a nickel that the sensational headlines mentioning the $ amount lost this quarter will provide at least some additional short lived downward pressure.

 

[bdy0627]

Earnings have been very harsh on a lot of companies this go around, even several of those beating estimates. Very frustrating. There's a good argument to be made TSLA's earnings have already been priced in this quarter to a large degree but I'd still bet a nickel that the sensational headlines mentioning the $ amount lost this quarter will provide at least some additional short lived downward pressure.

If so, you won't want to miss the massive surge upward after a few days of dropping. TSLA likes to do that a lot.

 

[Intl Professor]

Somebody tell me something tesla related that I can look forward to over the weekend

Sign up for a test drive, or just visit a store. Take the wife/friend or kids. Start'em young.

 

[neroden]

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating the incumbents as much as i may underestimate Tesla. Regarding volumes of EVs, i hope we'll see them earlier than you think.

I hope so too, but the incumbents have form: lots and lots of hot air and claims of future electric cars; very few electric cars.

I expect the volumes to come from the Chinese companies.

The only company i have some more detailed numbers at hand is VW Group, since i still own some of their shares. They seem to be aiming for something like 250k+ EVs in 2020 and 500k+ EVs in 2021 ramping further to 2 or 3 million by 2025, depending on how well they do and how battery technologie develops. Of course I do acknowledge that they'll mostly operate in another market segment than Tesla, except maybe the Audi and Porsche brands. Guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Maybe they're serious; they're finally building a charging network (for Porsche) and claim to be trying to (eventually, after another two years) mass produce cars (for VW)... but I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, their execs are being dragged to prison one after another; I think they're going to be a bit distracted in any electrification program.

 

[neroden]

NCA is not a particularly high C rate chemistry but with a large enough pack it can put out plenty of performance. A123 and other companies have made much higher C rate cells in pouch format. At some point if cell chemistry advances as we all hope it does then the cylindrical format inevitably becomes a disadvantage. If you don't need the extra surface area for cooling, if you don't need small cells because of volatile chemistry, and if you have a higher C rate cell chemistry, then the added complexity of many small individual cells with wasted space between them becomes a liability.

So, I'm going to dispute this.

Any high-energy-density format has inherent risks of *uncontrolled energy release* which make small, isolated cells an advantage and increases the value of extra surface area for cooling. Furthermore, the many-cell design allows for individual cell failures with redundancy, meaning higher tolerance for manufacturing errors in the cells. If you can replicate that in a pouch or prism, good luck.

The other advantage of cylindrical is its resistance against swelling. If they design a no-swelling battery, that's great, that would eliminate one of the advantages... but they haven't yet.

 

[neroden]

So Toyota and Volkswagen will have trouble getting into the automotive business?

Pretty much, yes. Toyota hasn't even designed a car yet -- they're still building these gasmobile things. VW is promising large production in 2 years, but they have to build a factory first.

Sure, there are a few pieces they know how to design and build, but not the battery, motor, charger, controller, main computer, body, or frame... (do you realize how long it took incumbents to start using the skateboard design? ...)

 

[TradingInvest]

Media hates Tesla so much

Compared to those negative reports, this one is relatively balanced. At least they interviewed Tesla's supporters and gave them a chance to talk. The comment from that NYU professor is both intelligent and positive.

 

[JRP3]

So, I'm going to dispute this.

Any high-energy-density format has inherent risks of *uncontrolled energy release* which make small, isolated cells an advantage and increases the value of extra surface area for cooling.

If there is a higher density chemistry that does not use a flammable electrolyte that would negate your argument. It's not the electrical energy density which makes the cells so volatile it's the chemistry. Today's NMC cell density is well above older LiCo cells which were much more volatile.

Furthermore, the many-cell design allows for individual cell failures with redundancy, meaning higher tolerance for manufacturing errors in the cells. If you can replicate that in a pouch or prism, good luck.

It's always a trade off though. Greater numbers of smaller cells means more potential units of errors but lower impact per unit, larger cells the opposite. I think once production practices mature enough for high volume pouch/prismatics it shouldn't be much of an issue.

The other advantage of cylindrical is its resistance against swelling. If they design a no-swelling battery, that's great, that would eliminate one of the advantages... but they haven't yet.

I don't see swelling as much of an issue, pouch and prismatic packs are all packed together tightly with no where to go, unlike cylindrical cells which count on the can to hold them together.

 

[neroden]

If there is a higher density chemistry that does not use a flammable electrolyte that would negate your argument. It's not the electrical energy density which makes the cells so volatile it's the chemistry. Today's NMC cell density is well above older LiCo cells which were much more volatile.

OK, sure, the chemistry is an issue, but the fact is, the electrical energy density will make volatility an issue period. Any high-energy-density system has explosion potential. It's inherent.

It's always a trade off though. Greater numbers of smaller cells means more potential units of errors but lower impact per unit, larger cells the opposite. I think once production practices mature enough for high volume pouch/prismatics it shouldn't be much of an issue.

It is a tradeoff, but I think it points towards cylindrical. Why? Because *pouch and prismatic aren't standardized*; each one is a custom form factor with custom manufacturing. This is... unhelpful when it comes to eliminating manufacturing errors. In terms of number produced, I can't think of a single specific pouch dimensional format which comes close to the cylindrical 18650 production numbers. If there were industry-standard mass-produced "10 cm x 10 cm x 5 cm" (or whatever) prismatics, then I would reconsider.

I don't see swelling as much of an issue, pouch and prismatic packs are all packed together tightly with no where to go, unlike cylindrical cells which count on the can to hold them together.

It has been a very serious issue in pouch and prismatic packs. Solid electrolytes might change this.

 

[JRP3]

Because *pouch and prismatic aren't standardized*; each one is a custom form factor with custom manufacturing.

You mean like the 2170 format? Once something is being produced in large enough quantities it becomes it's own "standard".

 

[neroden]

You mean like the 2170 format? Once something is being produced in large enough quantities it becomes it's own "standard".

Absolutely. So *who's doing it* for pouch or prismatic? Does BYD have a standardized format? BAIC, maybe? LG Chem?