TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

The obvious solution is for drivers to pay attention and safely conduct their car.

The problem is, more and more people are getting into Teslas and getting complacent, thinking the car will safely keep them from rear-ending a car in front of them. I would be very hesitant to have certain people I know drive a Tesla on Autopilot because I think they would not be vigilant enough, maybe enough 50% of the people I know. It's frustrating, since it is due to bad judgement by drivers. Maybe Tesla should do something to help avoid these unnecessary deaths due to people assuming the car will not rear-end cars (or medians) in front of them.

 

[jeewee3000]

If you're in for the long run it really doesn't matter. If you are wanting in then out at a quick profit...then I have no idea. Investor or speculator? That's not an ugly question, just two very different strategies.

Dan

I am a 100% bull, but whenever I add shares I prefer to buy at the bottom. I have bought some at 380+ for example and even though "in the long run" those shares will turn a profit, it is not a good feeling to see them drop 30%+.

So yes, I am an investor, but even investors have incentive to buy bottoms. Option Sniper pointed at consolidation to 287$ , so when the opening bell rings I'm not sure if we will hold the current value. Either way I don't see it drop further than 275$ (the most recent drop).

 

[wnorris]

Not as high as we had speculated or hoped, but now we have a reliable production rate and it’s likely higher than the bears have been pushing:

Tesla Model 3 production to ‘likely exceed’ 500 cars per day this week, says Elon Musk

Anyone know if or when the third shift for Model 3 started? If I remember correctly, it was just a few weeks ago that Elon had mentioned they would be hiring 400 employees per week to get to a total of 1200 between Fremont and Giga 1.

If the third shift started the increase would seem to be from that new shift. If not, then should a bump in production not occur due from the additional shift coming online?

 

[stef]

This letter was obviously put out to stop the bleeding. I wish Elon would have waited a bit longer and let the shorts bring the price down to 250 again. I feel like it would have had a stronger effect

Or to calm the rumor they were above 4000 already.

 

[Reciprocity]

This letter was obviously put out to stop the bleeding. I wish Elon would have waited a bit longer and let the shorts bring the price down to 250 again. I feel like it would have had a stronger effect

Its not going to stop the bleeding. No one believes Elon anymore. Its to the point where they dont even believe current margins or deliveries that actually happened. Jonas lowered his Margin expectations to like 8% while Tesla improved margins to 17% with further improvements coming with higher utilization of PP&E, which will drastically lower the amount of depreciation and amortized costs per car. This is nonsensical. It appears that Jonas had his feelings hurt when Elon dissed WS on the conference call and/or his bosses sent down the order to deliver a message to Elon. Jonas also insists that Telsa will need to raise money even though Elon vehemently denied it.

Edit: To be clear, Tesla cash position will improve in Q2 vs Q1 for these 3 reasons: $250M from orders of P/D/White Interior mentioned in a prior post. $150M from 20k more model 3s delivered and $350M less Capex from final payments for Model 3 and Gigafactory for Model 3. Last qtr, cash went down only $700M. Any additional deliveries of model S/X and any Zev credits will also improve the cash position.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I am a 100% bull, but whenever I add shares I prefer to buy at the bottom. I have bought some at 380+ for example and even though "in the long run" those shares will turn a profit, it is not a good feeling to see them drop 30%+.

So yes, I am an investor, but even investors have incentive to buy bottoms. Option Sniper pointed at consolidation to 287$ , so when the opening bell rings I'm not sure if we will hold the current value. Either way I don't see it drop further than 275$ (the most recent drop).

Certainly true. I just bought 10 more shares this morning at $288. I doubt it will get much lower with the production numbers being quoted this morning, the release of AWD and Performance as this week well as the announcement of the new Gigafactory in China. I think it is going to go uphill pretty quick.

Dan

 

[jeewee3000]

Its not going to stop the bleeding. No one believes Elon anymore. Its to the point where they dont even believe current margins or deliveries that actually happened. Jonas lowered his Margin expectations to like 8% while Tesla improved margins to 17% with further improvements coming with higher utilization of PP&E, which will drastically lower the amount of depreciation and amortized costs per car. This is nonsensical. It appears that Jonas had his feelings hurt when Elon dissed WS on the conference call and/or his bosses sent down the order to deliver a message to Elon.

Correct.

We (=the longs) have to face it: only the TSLA balance sheets showing hard numbers will be sufficient to (greatly) increase the SP. I'd say there will be good buying opportunities until at least August 2018. By early November I expect it to be game over for the shorts.

TLDR: buy now, everyone!

 

[uselesslogin]

So we can confirm that the friend @Lbkmxp100d has who supposedly works on the M3 line is full of it. Surprise surprise.

I noticed that lbkp100d (slightly different user name) was presumably assigned VIN 32162. That is by far the highest US VIN. Coincidence?

 

[K_Dizzle]

Its not going to stop the bleeding. No one believes Elon anymore. Its to the point where they dont even believe current margins or deliveries that actually happened. Jonas lowered his Margin expectations to like 8% while Tesla improved margins to 17% with further improvements coming with higher utilization of PP&E, which will drastically lower the amount of depreciation and amortized costs per car. This is nonsensical. It appears that Jonas had his feelings hurt when Elon dissed WS on the conference call and/or his bosses sent down the order to deliver a message to Elon.

The problem isint just MS, most of Wall Street took it Personally and they have deep pockets and lots of influence. This call will go down in history but it would have been better delivered later on. Unless a private equity investment happens sometime before Q3

 

[Todd Burch]

I noticed that lbkp100d (slightly different user name) was presumably assigned VIN 32162. That is by far the highest US VIN. Coincidence?

I'm not going to make any accusations. Might be that the friend was mistaken, was lying, or lbk was lying.

But it's clear FUD can go both ways.

 

[mongo]

So we can confirm that the friend @Lbkmxp100d has who supposedly works on the M3 line is full of it. Surprise surprise.

Nope, can't confirm that at all. Saying they will likely exceed 500 a day if they are making 600 a day is a true statement also.

“It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.”

If I win the lottery, I can say: "It is quite likely I will make more than my usual salary this month."
Or, "this Sunday, save up to 50% or more on carpet". That just encompasses all values form 0 to 100% (and beyond).
Or, "it is looking quite likely that Block 5's first launch will be a success."

(also (in low probability land), that may include the AWD section...)

 

[yngwie_2012]

short attack underways...premarket @282

 

[Todd Burch]

Nope, can't confirm that at all. Saying they will likely exceed 500 a day if they are making 600 a day is a true statement also.

By that logic, why didn't Elon just say "it's likely we'll exceed 5 M3s per week this week!

 

[YasB]

No one believes Elon anymore. Its to the point where they dont even believe current margins or deliveries that actually happened. Jonas lowered his Margin expectations to like 8% while Tesla improved margins to 17% with further improvements coming with higher utilization of PP&E, which will drastically lower the amount of depreciation and amortized costs per car. This is nonsensical.

Just to have that clear: Those 8% are Operating Margin resulting from EBIT, not gross margins. He lowered them from 9.4% to 8.2% with the current report. He's projecting Tesla to achieve those in 2025 and estimates a 20.3% Gross Margin for 2019 (lowered from 26.9%). With 8% Operating Margin Tesla would still be in the upper range of bigger car manufacturers. If i remember correctly, BMW had around ~10%, Daimler around 8% or 9% and VW / Ford went with something like 4-5% on average over the last years. Those were pretty good years regarding the automotive cycle. They tend to be negative in bad times with a lot of car makers.

Edited for missing link:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdO0RnuWkAA6hCm.jpg:large

 

[K_Dizzle]

short attack underways...premarket @282

If we hit $260 I’m going HAM on calls.

 

[mongo]

short attack underways...premarket @282

Means people are willing to buy at $282.

By that logic, why didn't Elon just say "it's likely we'll exceed 5 M3s per week this week!

There is no point in him saying that, I was illustrating the logical flaw in your conclusion. As to motive on 500: Bear trap, or the 600 mark is unstable and 550 has too few zeros..

 

[Todd Burch]

Means people are willing to buy at $282.

There is no point in him saying that, I was illustrating the logical flaw in your conclusion. As to motive on 500: Bear trap, or the 600 mark is unstable and 550 has too few zeros..

No "flaw in my logic". I don't think SEC regulations allow a CEO to legally release deliberately incorrect information to influence the stock price.

 

[Richgoogol]

I am a 100% bull, but whenever I add shares I prefer to buy at the bottom. I have bought some at 380+ for example and even though "in the long run" those shares will turn a profit, it is not a good feeling to see them drop 30%+.

So yes, I am an investor, but even investors have incentive to buy bottoms. Option Sniper pointed at consolidation to 287$ , so when the opening bell rings I'm not sure if we will hold the current value. Either way I don't see it drop further than 275$ (the most recent drop).

I believe $280 should be a solid support since it's never really closed below that recently. If it breaks through that today then we may see $275.

 

[yngwie_2012]

we wont break down 282,74$

 

[mongo]

No "flaw in my logic". I don't think SEC regulations allow a CEO to legally release deliberately incorrect information to influence the stock price.

All I'm saying is that the statement

“It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.”

does not directly negate the possibly of 4k over a week. One is consistent daily output, one is a potentially bursty weekly total.