TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

All I'm saying is that the statement does not directly negate the possibly of 4k over a week. One is consistent daily output, one is a potentially bursty weekly total.

I get what you're saying. I just don't understand why you're making the point, unless you think Elon is deliberately understating the production rate. It seems the only motivations he would have for doing that would be illegal, so don't think it's very likely at all.

 

[mongo]

I get what you're saying. I just don't understand why you're making the point, unless you think Elon is deliberately understating the production rate. It seems the only motivations he would have for doing that would be illegal, so don't think it's very likely at all.

Cause I'm an OCD and pedantic engineer.

 

[Todd Burch]

Cause I'm an OCD and pedantic engineer.

Damn engineers.

(I'm one too).

 

[jbcarioca]

Cause I'm an OCD and pedantic engineer.

I'm OCD and pedantic and graduate high school in Michigan. Do I qualify even though I'm not an engineer?

 

[justvisiting]

Two of them we have for the moment, posting very similar comments, same tone - could be one person with multiple accounts, or just paid by the same master with the same mandate...

Nah i dont have that much time. Im just a small short, and not underwater thanks for your concern, that wants to understand the bull case.
But the more i read here, the more i understand that the bull case seems to be statements like yours about teslas dominance, with no reasoning behind it. So, good luck ill guess youll need it

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Nah i dont have that much time. Im just a small short, and not underwater thanks for your concern, that wants to understand the bull case.
But the more i read here, the more i understand that the bull case seems to be statements like yours about teslas dominance, with no reasoning behind it. So, good luck ill guess youll need it

I really do believe that the Bull vs. Bear argument fundamentally comes down to one simple fact. The bears are looking at a given company as a means to an end at the expense of what the company stands for. (Looking for the company to fail, and often doing whatever they can to ensure that). The bulls are looking at what the company has to offer in the future. How it is going to influence its business sector down the line. In other words, investing in its growth, (and also often doing things to help ensure that outcome as well.) One builds up, the other tears down.

Dan

 

[Yonki]

I get what you're saying. I just don't understand why you're making the point, unless you think Elon is deliberately understating the production rate. It seems the only motivations he would have for doing that would be illegal, so don't think it's very likely at all.

Third (at least) pedantic engineer here. I don't think saying Tesla Model 3 production to ‘likely exceed’ 500 cars per day this week when there's a chance it could be 550 or 600 or something higher is misleading (not to mention illegal) at all. It would be what we've all wanted Musk to start doing for 5 years: underpromising and over-delivering.

 

[Todd Burch]

Third (at least) pedantic engineer here. I don't think saying Tesla Model 3 production to ‘likely exceed’ 500 cars per day this week when there's a chance it could be 550 or 600 or something g higher is misleading (not to mention illegal) at all. It would be what we've all wanted Musk to start doing for 5 years: underpromising and over-delivering.

Point taken. In fact the effect on the stock of saying "likely exceed 500" vs. "likely exceed 600" would probably not be too significant (given that lately good news causes the price to go down). I just think Elon would give the best number they could hit right now.

 

[kbM3]

I am a 100% bull, but whenever I add shares I prefer to buy at the bottom. I have bought some at 380+ for example and even though "in the long run" those shares will turn a profit, it is not a good feeling to see them drop 30%+.

So yes, I am an investor, but even investors have incentive to buy bottoms. Option Sniper pointed at consolidation to 287$ , so when the opening bell rings I'm not sure if we will hold the current value. Either way I don't see it drop further than 275$ (the most recent drop).

There. Are only two types of investors that can reliably pick the bottom.

1) Time travelers.
2) Those that can see the future.

 

[brian45011]

Courtesy of @vgrinshpun on Twitter:


$TSLA has new top institutional share owner - Price T. Rowe replaced Fidelity as #1. Half of the top 10 institutions reported ahead of tomorrow's deadline. These five increased their collective stake by 2.7 million shares. (link: https://whalewisdom.com/stock/tsla) whalewisdom.com/stock/tsla



Big addition by T. Rowe Price in Q1 — be interesting to see the rest of the data for Q1 and also to eventually see how institutional investors have been adding with the ~8-9M new shares available in Q2 (so far) due to shorting.

Battle of the elephants, a year ago:

TROW's 13f showed 10,821,027 shares at 3/31/17 so an increase of 4.8 million shares.

FMR's 13f showed 24,450,435 shares at 3/31/17 so an decrease of 8.8 million shares.
​

Closing share price:
3/31/17 $278.30
3/31/18 $266.13

 

[bambam4171]

What the hell happened to SP? Or to be more precise, what did I miss that would justify such a drop? Still Morgan Stanley?

 

[RedMS]

Another discount on SP today folks. Get yer shares while they good and fresh!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Another discount on SP today folks. Get yer shares while they good and fresh!

Got 10 myself!

Dan

 

[defc0n]

What the hell happened to SP? Or to be more precise, what did I miss that would justify such a drop? Still Morgan Stanley?

Morgan Stanley + losing $300 support and was already headed back down to $280 support anyway.

 

[K_Dizzle]

There. Are only two types of investors that can reliably pick the bottom.

1) Time travelers.
2) Those that can see the future.

3) That option_sniper dude on twitter is magic sometimes

 

[K_Dizzle]

There has been an incredible 3.1M shares traded within 45 minutes of market open today. someone is loading up

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Let them short the bottom.

$280 has so far held up nicely, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla becomes GAAP+ as of June on a monthly basis.

I had previously estimated 3,000/wk as Model 3 breakeven and 5,000/wk as company-wide breakeven, and Tesla seems on track.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Changing direction on this thread a little if you don't mind. I have always gotten the impression that Elon always hated the fact that he had to take the company public. I think he would have been much happier going the way of SpaceX and keeping it a private company. If at some point down the road he wanted to return it to it's original private status how could that be done. I am new to all this stock market stuff so forgive my potentially stupid question.

I realize that this is not a viable option but am curious as to what it would take. Thanks for any and all info.

Dan

 

[CyberDutchie]

Just to have that clear: Those 8% are Operating Margin resulting from EBIT, not gross margins. He lowered them from 9.4% to 8.2% with the current report. He's projecting Tesla to achieve those in 2025 and estimates a 20.3% Gross Margin for 2019 (lowered from 26.9%). With 8% Operating Margin Tesla would still be in the upper range of bigger car manufacturers. If i remember correctly, BMW had around ~10%, Daimler around 8% or 9% and VW / Ford went with something like 4-5% on average over the last years. Those were pretty good years regarding the automotive cycle. They tend to be negative in bad times with a lot of car makers.

Edited for missing link:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdO0RnuWkAA6hCm.jpg:large

Per Adam Jonas’ note:

We lowered our long-term operating margin forecast to 9.8% from 14.3% previously. This change takes our long-term view of group OP margins from best in class premium levels to margins in line with that of the German premium names or recent GM N. American margins.

Also this:

We lowered our long-term auto gross margin forecast to 27% vs. 34% previously. We have assumed Model S gross margins of 35%, Model X at 31%, Model 3/Y at 24%, Roadster at 40% and ZEV credits at 100%.

Finally, as always, Morgan Stanley attributes zero value to Tesla Energy.

 

[Todd Burch]

What changed that would cause them to lower their long-term gross margin forecast?

I think Jonas's ego is the only thing that changed in Tesla's long-term forecast.