TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tenable]

1. I’m not blind. I see what’s going on and I’m good. I’m so not blind I expected full on failure, which didn’t happen thus I’m in a state of continued positiveness despite bumps in the road. Because again failure just doesn’t appear to be an option for this dude and his crew regardless of every-not-an-expert-but-thinks-they-are shouting from the mountain tops. (This recent 10B talk right now from the Golden Criminals sounds very much like the ‘Tesla won’t be able to get the money they need to build a gigafactory so,’ yeah...)

2. I feel no need to add to any negativity. You and others have that covered.

3. I’m not suffering. Again I’m good.

4. I don’t need steak. Got a whole freezer full. I’m happy to just sit back and enjoy the show. I’m rooting for world dominating family empire but if they never get passed this point, I’m good. Humanity isn’t good but I’ll be long gone by the time that plays out.

5. That’s my disagree with the tired negativity steak/hyperbole/hubris agrument.

6. You’re investment choices are on you. If you’ve made a mistake then learn from it and move on.

Krugerrand, I've never had cause to disagree with you, but I'm at a bit of a loss on how to respond here. I'm happy you're happy. However, as an investor, if Tesla fails on its mission and stalls out here, I would be less than pleased. Though as you say, I'll likely be gone long before it matters.

We do need something significant. 5k weekly production qualifies for me. Positive margins would be nice as well.

Everyone is free to invest or withdraw as they see fit. However, a little empathy can occasionally go a long way.

 

[Irishjugg]

Yes, isn't it fun, and far more entertaining than a crap table where each roll is an independent event (but a wad can be depleted quickly if you don't understand probabilities and the corresponding odds offered.)

Tesla is more like playing the ponies. Those who think they can read a Racing Form and gain an edge may or may not stay ahead of the house. In the end, it's all just gambling. Those who recognize it as gambling may win a little or lose a little, but not get wiped out.

One thing I noticed when I used to occasionally visit a track was that day's Racing Form was updated to include races by the horses on that day's race-card since my last visit. I believed any horse's later performances were more relevant to handicapping its performance on that day than its earlier outings. May have been deceiving myself.

YMMV

Just FYI, there are several syndicates that absolutely crush horse racing consistently with a data driven betting approach.

It's basically a beaten game.

Thanks to that I tend to agree with your analogy . Long term Tesla longs know the critical data better, know which sorry arguments and news stories are bullshit and have been massively profitable.

Shorts are more like the craps players. Based on their really basic and narrow understanding of Tesla, they are just randomly throwing dice and hoping not to see 7s . They win occasionally but are getting destroyed long term.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Good analysis on Soros here: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/05...os-really-give-Tesla-a--vote-of-confidence--/

 

[chronopublish]

Its hard not to fear when you're watching the value drain out of your OOM options. Who would have thought that September 2018 355s would feel like a crap shoot? The movement in TSLA has been brutal. I don't think a single one of our long term contributors here has been correct on the price action. Hopefully our track record will improve greatly over the next 6-12 months.

Ask yourself: Why did you purchase calls in TSLA instead of shares? If you're honest with yourself, the answer is "for higher gains" - well the opportunity for higher gains comes with higher risks. NOBODY here is going to reliably predict short-term results, because the short-term market is irrational. You should have known this before investing in options.

ALL THAT SAID... I wouldn't feel too bad about Sep 2018 355s yet. If Tesla is showing a strong trend toward positive cash flow in Q2, and they hit their 5000/mo milestone on Model 3 prior to the end of the quarter, share price will probably respond. But again, because the short-term market is irrational, nobody can guarantee that for you.

 

[Irishjugg]

Back to 280 support. Good time to buy. If it drops below 278, get out.

You misspelled "wait, then buy more"

 

[DocZ]

Regarding the comments:

• As a long term investor, I'm happier with Tesla than any time in the last 6 months, see below
  
• BIG things ARE happening, 3 of the biggest things IMO
  • M3 ramp finally getting to 5k/wk and cash+ and profitability in sight
    
  • China factory progress and tariff change
  • Expansion/CapEx plan adjustment to remove susceptibility to equity market manipulation
• I like Elon continue being Elon, if he loses his edge in tough times I'd be more worried.

While I agree with all of those things, the market simply isnt recognizing any of those positives. It isn't just suddenly going to turn around, unless a material event occurs. All of those things are somewhat baked into the current stock price imo.

 

[Skryll]

This is a monthly options expiration day with much open interest. A TSLA close between $270 and $280 would shut out a great many owners of both puts and calls. That would allow the writers of those options to keep their premiums. The option owners are mainly retail speculators, while the writers are mostly hedge funds and market makers. The pros are the ones in positions to manipulate the share price on expiration days, if their options positions would benefit by more than the cost of manipulation. They tend to win, or they would not remain in business.

Now if us retail option writer wannabes would know which of the pricepoints they are targetting... because options exist for quite a wide range...

 

[Tslynk67]

Regarding the above discussions... I'm as bullish as they come, but I agree that

While I agree with all of those things, the market simply isnt recognizing any of those positives. It isn't just suddenly going to turn around, unless a material event occurs. All of those things are somewhat baked into the current stock price imo.

This is true. We need tangible results to get the SP heading north once again - actual production figure, not could/should/might. Elon has called wolf too many times over the last year.

But the really good news is that many of us here have recently added to our long position at excellent prices. I reflect that my last three purchases were at 363, 254 and 250. At the time I thought 363 was a good investment and I still do, and will buy again when I have the cash regardless of the SP.

Because it will go up, it will go up a lot; it's just a matter of when. Patience is required, that's all.

 

[ggies07]

The price is reflected on the error the company produced last July/September when they over saw the screw up with the battery module line. All the FUD and shorting that has occurred over the last 6 months is derived from that. The company did it to themselves and will now lose a year gaining it back. Does it matter in the long run? No. The company is on its way to dominating the transition.

 

[Skryll]

While I agree with all of those things, the market simply isnt recognizing any of those positives. It isn't just suddenly going to turn around, unless a material event occurs. All of those things are somewhat baked into the current stock price imo.

Here is a scary thought:

What if too many people are wannabe option writers, sell their shares and cash covered puts and are waiting for the stock to go up, but since they all sell it keeps going down

 

[DocZ]

Regarding the above discussions... I'm as bullish as they come, but I agree that


This is true. We need tangible results to get the SP heading north once again - actual production figure, not could/should/might. Elon has called wolf too many times over the last year.

But the really good news is that many of us here have recently added to our long position at excellent prices. I reflect that my last three purchases were at 363, 254 and 250. At the time I thought 363 was a good investment and I still do, and will buy again when I have the cash regardless of the SP.

Because it will go up, it will go up a lot; it's just a matter of when. Patience is required, that's all.

Same. I added at 306, 299, 289, 254. I know long term it'll be fine, just a weird lull right now.

 

[Skryll]

4. I don’t need steak. Got a whole freezer full. I’m happy to just sit back and enjoy the show. I’m rooting for world dominating family empire but if they never get passed this point, I’m good. Humanity isn’t good but I’ll be long gone by the time that plays out.

Hope you have the powerwalls to back the freezer in a power outage. Figuratively speaking.

 

[Tslynk67]

Same. I added at 306, 299, 289, 254. I know long term it'll be fine, just a weird lull right now.

I find it boring and a little depressing, but no way will I sell a single share. I wish I could just ignore the SP, but I'm addicted to watching it. I try to rationalise that I'm trying to understand the price movements on a daily basis, but that's BS, I just like watching $TSLA - on my PC at work, on my Macs at home, Apple Watch when I'm out and about, iPhone...

I should see a shrink really.

Anyone else have this problem?

 

[Causalien]

Steak is when production rate meets expectations. Or the actual net income is positive... For many quarters. Unfortunately, tesla has missed one too many times and the market is in a "wait till real numbers" mode.

For example, the m3 production number of 4000+. Even I am skeptical as this forum has worked itself up into a frevor on a rumor and failed before. Will we really breakeven after 5000? Don't know, the burn rate seems higher than expected so we might need 7000.

Anyway, place your bets.

 

[Causalien]

I find it boring and a little depressing, but no way will I sell a single share. I wish I could just ignore the SP, but I'm addicted to watching it. I try to rationalise that I'm trying to understand the price movements on a daily basis, but that's BS, I just like watching $TSLA - on my PC at work, on my Macs at home, Apple Watch when I'm out and about, iPhone...

I should see a shrink really.

Anyone else have this problem?

No need for shrink. You need a hobby.

 

[Waiting4M3]

While I agree with all of those things, the market simply isnt recognizing any of those positives. It isn't just suddenly going to turn around, unless a material event occurs. All of those things are somewhat baked into the current stock price imo.

Isn't that the time to buy?

 

[Irishjugg]

How is this comment piling up disagrees? Being long this company does not mean being blind. Elon has missed countless timelines. He delivers on some amazing things, but he also misses. When I ordered my late 2015 Model S, I was sold on a video that I could schedule a time and the car would drive itself to the front of my building everyday with my favorite music queued up, climate control preset and I could just walk out and head to the office. Its now the middle of 2018, new hardware has been released on vehicles with exponentially more computing power and several times the cameras. This still isn't happening. On my car its likely that it never will.

These kind of misses matter to consumers. His misses in other areas such as production matter to investors. I'm still as long as I've ever been. But have I taken a monetary beating as a result of M3 being late well beyond my buffers for Elon time? Of course I have, along with everyone else here. Do any of you remember how hard the price of TSLA spiked briefly on a Friday when Elon tweeted about the Semi? Just the idea created a move. Now days we have positive news and no one blinks. Chinese factory? Nothing. New battery projects? Nothing. Promises of scaling every area of the business and profitability? Nothing.

There is a ton of negative sentiment, we do need something significant. We need steak. We shouldn't just blindly, quietly chide those that point out that we are suffering.

If you are one of the people that got all exuberant and bought above 350, that's your fault. 5% of my shares are under water, 95% are green. My highest buy price is 301, llowest 147 (thanks SCTY merger fudfools!)
We don't need steak, only short term price is concerned with sizzle and steak. The executives at Telsa do not care, at all, about short term bs . They just don't. They are clear on this every conference call, every interview etc.

If you are reading Tesla sick in a way that relies on PR and managing stock price with statements and steak and stuff, you are going to get beaten up, forever. This is the wrong company for that.

This place goes in a cycle, super happy and exuberant when the stock is running up, including buying at and above brand new all time highs + singing the praises of Musk et all. Then when absolutely perfect execution doesn't happen and the stock gets discount sale priced people freak out on Elon and management, complain about news flow, beg for PR and just generally whine.

Its be teste and years of this cycle here, and it won't stop . Your complaints aren't new,!

Not to single you out tenable, you were just the lucky person I hit reply on

 

[mongo]

I had to laugh when you said you wouldn't have rated it as such if not for me. I do enjoy your posts.

While there is a lot of good will (I like to believe) around Tesla's mission. I can not tell you how frequently I am asked about fires, safety, bankruptcy, etc. The movement on the share price clearly displays a lack of positive sentiment. Also, Elon is prone to hyperbole. The upcoming short squeeze being greater than VW's for example. I love Elon. But hey, I love ice cream. I wouldn't pretend its zero calorie. It is what it is.

Nothing personal, I had read the post, thought "their opinion", and moved on. Your post cause me to reread it, thus pushing my needle to the "nah I do actually disagree" side of the meter.

If Elon thinks like me, it's not hyperbole, it really is how he thinks about the problem/ situation.

 

[neroden]

I find it boring and a little depressing, but no way will I sell a single share. I wish I could just ignore the SP, but I'm addicted to watching it. I try to rationalise that I'm trying to understand the price movements on a daily basis, but that's BS, I just like watching $TSLA - on my PC at work, on my Macs at home, Apple Watch when I'm out and about, iPhone...

I should see a shrink really.

Anyone else have this problem?

Mod: analogy scratched after complaints. --ggr Wait, scratch that analogy...

Seriously, yes, there is something psychologically addictive about watching the price move... Maybe like the attraction of watching waves in the ocean, I dunno.

 

[Tslynk67]

These stories just today on BBC Business...

60k Porsches to be recalled due to defeat software: Abgasskandal: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt ruft 60.000 Porsche zurück - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Auto

And fuel-prices rising in the UK, I can imagine whole Europe: Danni Hewson on Twitter

Yes, that's £1,30.5 a litre, which translates to $6.60 per gallon...

And finally, BMW recalling due to cars "catching fire":

BMW recalled almost 50,000 cars in the US earlier this month to rectify fan blowers that could overheat.

As with last week's recall, BMW initially thought the fault wouldn't occur in Europe because in a cooler climate the system is under less stress.

BMW says it is aware of six cases in which UK-spec cars have caught fire - it is not aware of any injuries.

BMW said in a statement: "BMW has chosen to expand on its existing battery connector recall by also replacing the blower-regulator wiring harness on affected 3 Series models. This involves replacing two wiring connections on the cars already affected and recalling an additional 88,000 cars in the UK.

"We are taking the opportunity of the existing recall to proactively check and replace the wiring harness of the blower regulator. In doing so we are taking every precaution in terms of safety while minimising disruption and inconvenience to affected customers.

"This affects BMW 3 Series models manufactured between December 2004 and July 2011. BMW has notified the DVSA of its intention to recall and will begin the recall process immediately."