TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tenable]

Seriously. I'm getting concerned about my Sept2018 355 calls.

Its hard not to fear when you're watching the value drain out of your OOM options. Who would have thought that September 2018 355s would feel like a crap shoot? The movement in TSLA has been brutal. I don't think a single one of our long term contributors here has been correct on the price action. Hopefully our track record will improve greatly over the next 6-12 months.

 

[DocZ]

A lot of negative sentiment around the company at this time. We need something BIG to happen. People are fed up with Musk's hyperbole, and rightfully so.

 

[neroden]

sounds a bit like what @jhm is doing in his forecasting of EV supply. I think it is very likely that this sort of extrapolation greatly overestimates the rate of future increase in production as 1) it’s so heavily based on China and Tesla while the 15 or so incumbent global automakers EV growth rate is tremendously less than Tesla and China, 2) if you actually look at the quality of the specific vehicles that are part of China’s contribution, so many of them are of a size and quality not likely to sell much at all in established auto markets. I can’t say anything specifically convincing on this point now as I only have a general memory of a deep dive I took a few months back on what these vehicles actually are, but, at the time it was apparent to me that more substantial vehicles (more time consuming and expensive to create production capacity) will be needed for the bulk of the Chinese automakers to keep that growth contribution going into established vehicle markets.



agree. door is being left quite open for China and Tesla to have very very outsized role in this transition.

Eh. I think the Chinese can do it. Also, to the extent they do not, I think Tesla can, starting in 2020 when internally generated capital will be significant and debt will be paid down / yrefinanced at lower rates.

Regarding quality, the Leaf with its deteriorating batteries is still selling like hotcakes, so I don't think Western buyers are really that picky.

 

[Curt Renz]

This is a monthly options expiration day with much open interest. A TSLA close between $270 and $280 would shut out a great many owners of both puts and calls. That would allow the writers of those options to keep their premiums. The option owners are mainly retail speculators, while the writers are mostly hedge funds and market makers. The pros are the ones in positions to manipulate the share price on expiration days, if their options positions would benefit by more than the cost of manipulation. They tend to win, or they would not remain in business.

 

[neroden]

Its hard not to fear when you're watching the value drain out of your OOM options. Who would have thought that September 2018 355s would feel like a crap shoot? The movement in TSLA has been brutal. I don't think a single one of our long term contributors here has been correct on the price action. Hopefully our track record will improve greatly over the next 6-12 months.

Several of us recommended options expiry dates no sooner than Jan 2019 because of this volatility. After 4Q deliveries are out I find it hard to believe that the bear thesis will be intact.

 

[Tenable]

A lot of negative sentiment around the company at this time. We need something BIG to happen. People are fed up with Musk's hyperbole, and rightfully so.

How is this comment piling up disagrees? Being long this company does not mean being blind. Elon has missed countless timelines. He delivers on some amazing things, but he also misses. When I ordered my late 2015 Model S, I was sold on a video that I could schedule a time and the car would drive itself to the front of my building everyday with my favorite music queued up, climate control preset and I could just walk out and head to the office. Its now the middle of 2018, new hardware has been released on vehicles with exponentially more computing power and several times the cameras. This still isn't happening. On my car its likely that it never will.

These kind of misses matter to consumers. His misses in other areas such as production matter to investors. I'm still as long as I've ever been. But have I taken a monetary beating as a result of M3 being late well beyond my buffers for Elon time? Of course I have, along with everyone else here. Do any of you remember how hard the price of TSLA spiked briefly on a Friday when Elon tweeted about the Semi? Just the idea created a move. Now days we have positive news and no one blinks. Chinese factory? Nothing. New battery projects? Nothing. Promises of scaling every area of the business and profitability? Nothing.

There is a ton of negative sentiment, we do need something significant. We need steak. We shouldn't just blindly, quietly chide those that point out that we are suffering.

 

[Tenable]

Several of us recommended options expiry dates no sooner than Jan 2019 because of this volatility. After 4Q deliveries are out I find it hard to believe that the bear thesis will be intact.

85% of my leaps are J20s, the rest are M19. That doesn't mean the paper losses don't hurt. Also, I cant help myself but buy Septembers on these dips. As with all trades, the results are on me.

 

[Quassinoid]

As Tesla Longs and Bulls, this is no time to be passive. If we're not in a position to invest, we can continue to punch back at the FUD, lies and false narratives out there. It won't be long before the flame throwers arrive....

 

[dhrivnak]

I am bullish longer term as I have a Model 3 and it is a GREAT car. It has exceeded our expectations and I ave already garnered 5 free lunches 4 of which I am quite certain will turn into sales as all others have been impressed as well. Tesla just needs to make them in volume. That is an engineering problem I am confident they will solve.

 

[mongo]

How is this comment piling up disagrees?

A lot of negative sentiment around the company at this time. - I disagree
We need something BIG to happen. - this part of we disagrees
People are fed up with Musk's hyperbole, and rightfully so. - disagree on hyperbole, don't know these 'people', but disagree they have cause.

If they said: "I feel negative and I want something big to happen after all of what I feel has been hyperbole from Musk." I would not disagree (also would not have if you hadn't brought it to my attention).

 

[neroden]

Elon’s interview about Boring Company today. I think his mood is rather good.

Elon Musk’s Boring Company announces ‘partnership’ with LA Metro for its tunnel network under Los Angeles

Very good sign. Someone there can explain transit economics to him over lunch, and we may get the modern equivalent of NYC's IRT. Would be great.

 

[Tenable]

How is this comment piling up disagrees? Being long this company does not mean being blind. Elon has missed countless timelines. He delivers on some amazing things, but he also misses. When I ordered my late 2015 Model S, I was sold on a video that I could schedule a time and the car would drive itself to the front of my building everyday with my favorite music queued up, climate control preset and I could just walk out and head to the office. Its now the middle of 2018, new hardware has been released on vehicles with exponentially more computing power and several times the cameras. This still isn't happening. On my car its likely that it never will.

These kind of misses matter to consumers. His misses in other areas such as production matter to investors. I'm still as long as I've ever been. But have I taken a monetary beating as a result of M3 being late well beyond my buffers for Elon time? Of course I have, along with everyone else here. Do any of you remember how hard the price of TSLA spiked briefly on a Friday when Elon tweeted about the Semi? Just the idea created a move. Now days we have positive news and no one blinks. Chinese factory? Nothing. New battery projects? Nothing. Promises of scaling every area of the business and profitability? Nothing.

There is a ton of negative sentiment, we do need something significant. We need steak. We shouldn't just blindly, quietly chide those that point out that we are suffering.

@imherkimer I see you disagree with me. Please, let me know where you believe I have gone wrong.

 

[neroden]

Yes, isn't it fun, and far more entertaining than a crap table where each roll is an independent event (but a wad can be depleted quickly if you don't understand probabilities and the corresponding odds offered.)

Tesla is more like playing the ponies. Those who think they can read a Racing Form and gain an edge may or may not stay ahead of the house. In the end, it's all just gambling. Those who recognize it as gambling may win a little or lose a little, but not get wiped out.

One thing I noticed when I used to occasionally visit a track was that day's Racing Form was updated to include races by the horses on that day's race-card since my last visit. I believed any horse's later performances were more relevant to handicapping its performance on that day than its earlier outings. May have been deceiving myself.

YMMV

It is true that the stock market is more like horse racing.

But with less randomness.

 

[neroden]

They either believe nothing positive or want to keep up the pressure on Elon to play according to their rules. Will be interesting to see if the stock responds to a production rate of 5000 in June, if that does happen. It’s not certain it will be believed until official quarterly numbers are released. If the production comes out high, the street may still not believe they will be cash flow positive, so the stock may not respond until a positive earning report for q3 and before the earnings call.
I keep thinking my facts about Tesla getting model 3 production moving and generating positive cash flow from all mature products and that any losses are due to investment in new products and services. If this is true, but Tesla keeps investing in 50-70% year on year growth, I guess this debate over facts can continue. In the meantime, sure wish some big hitter would side with the bulls and pick up the remaining available shares.

There is some evidence that big investors are scooping up shares. However, short-sellers have also been manufacturing more shares. And big institutional holders usually lend their shares out, so this cycle can go for a while. The short sellers are in a bear trap,

 

[vinvin218]

Grand opening of 2 more Tesla stores in China

(Shenzhen & Changsha) this weekend. 50 Tesla will occupy the landmark of the cities. Reported by official Tesla weibo account

here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

 

[Tenable]

A lot of negative sentiment around the company at this time. - I disagree
We need something BIG to happen. - this part of we disagrees
People are fed up with Musk's hyperbole, and rightfully so. - disagree on hyperbole, don't know these 'people', but disagree they have cause.

If they said: "I feel negative and I want something big to happen after all of what I feel has been hyperbole from Musk." I would not disagree (also would not have if you hadn't brought it to my attention).

I had to laugh when you said you wouldn't have rated it as such if not for me. I do enjoy your posts.

While there is a lot of good will (I like to believe) around Tesla's mission. I can not tell you how frequently I am asked about fires, safety, bankruptcy, etc. The movement on the share price clearly displays a lack of positive sentiment. Also, Elon is prone to hyperbole. The upcoming short squeeze being greater than VW's for example. I love Elon. But hey, I love ice cream. I wouldn't pretend its zero calorie. It is what it is.

 

[Waiting4M3]

How is this comment piling up disagrees? Being long this company does not mean being blind. Elon has missed countless timelines. He delivers on some amazing things, but he also misses. When I ordered my late 2015 Model S, I was sold on a video that I could schedule a time and the car would drive itself to the front of my building everyday with my favorite music queued up, climate control preset and I could just walk out and head to the office. Its now the middle of 2018, new hardware has been released on vehicles with exponentially more computing power and several times the cameras. This still isn't happening. On my car its likely that it never will.

These kind of misses matter to consumers. His misses in other areas such as production matter to investors. I'm still as long as I've ever been. But have I taken a monetary beating as a result of M3 being late well beyond my buffers for Elon time? Of course I have, along with everyone else here. Do any of you remember how hard the price of TSLA spiked briefly on a Friday when Elon tweeted about the Semi? Just the idea created a move. Now days we have positive news and no one blinks. Chinese factory? Nothing. New battery projects? Nothing. Promises of scaling every area of the business and profitability? Nothing.

There is a ton of negative sentiment, we do need something significant. We need steak. We shouldn't just blindly, quietly chide those that point out that we are suffering.

Regarding the comments:

A lot of negative sentiment around the company at this time. We need something BIG to happen. People are fed up with Musk's hyperbole, and rightfully so.

• As a long term investor, I'm happier with Tesla than any time in the last 6 months, see below
  
• BIG things ARE happening, 3 of the biggest things IMO
  
  • M3 ramp finally getting to 5k/wk and cash+ and profitability in sight
    
  • China factory progress and tariff change
  • Expansion/CapEx plan adjustment to remove susceptibility to equity market manipulation
• I like Elon continue being Elon, if he loses his edge in tough times I'd be more worried.

 

[bdy0627]

85% of my leaps are J20s, the rest are M19. That doesn't mean the paper losses don't hurt. Also, I cant help myself but buy Septembers on these dips. As with all trades, the results are on me.

As we dip further, I virtually always add and move my calls up since TSLA has a very consistent pattern of rapidly reversing. It's hard to do because each time there is a new 10%+ dip, there is always the concern that this one could be the one that's different than the prior ones and not come back up. That's never happened yet with TSLA but it is of course possible if the company is actually not going to be successful. I'm betting on success as others pile on, betting on failure.

 

[sundaymorning]

Grand opening of 2 more Tesla stores in China

(Shenzhen & Changsha) this weekend. 50 Tesla will occupy the landmark of the cities. Reported by official Tesla weibo account

here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

Opening new stores to generate sales, this is where SG&A is going and appears to be under control despite the ramp in M3. Can wait for cash flow neutral this quarter. It’ll give us a lot of tail wind for being cash flow positive in the 3rd.

 

[Krugerrand]

How is this comment piling up disagrees? Being long this company does not mean being blind.

<snip>


There is a ton of negative sentiment, we do need something significant. We need steak. We shouldn't just blindly, quietly chide those that point out that we are suffering.

1. I’m not blind. I see what’s going on and I’m good. I’m so not blind I expected full on failure, which didn’t happen thus I’m in a state of continued positiveness despite bumps in the road. Because again failure just doesn’t appear to be an option for this dude and his crew regardless of every-not-an-expert-but-thinks-they-are shouting from the mountain tops. (This recent 10B talk right now from the Golden Criminals sounds very much like the ‘Tesla won’t be able to get the money they need to build a gigafactory so,’ yeah...)

2. I feel no need to add to any negativity. You and others have that covered.

3. I’m not suffering. Again I’m good.

4. I don’t need steak. Got a whole freezer full. I’m happy to just sit back and enjoy the show. I’m rooting for world dominating family empire but if they never get passed this point, I’m good. Humanity isn’t good but I’ll be long gone by the time that plays out.

5. That’s my disagree with the tired negativity steak/hyperbole/hubris agrument.

6. You’re investment choices are on you. If you’ve made a mistake then learn from it and move on.