Indeed, not many Dutch that don't speak English. Or Flanders in Belgium is another possibility.
Can't be UK, obviously, with Brexit (idiots...), plus wrong side of La Manche...
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Indeed, not many Dutch that don't speak English. Or Flanders in Belgium is another possibility.
Can't be UK, obviously, with Brexit (idiots...), plus wrong side of La Manche...
Netherlands could work, they are pretty liberally minded and highly skilled. Wages shouldn't be any more than California although building costs could be.
I would avoid Belgium at all costs. Trade unions rule, 35 hour weeks, loads of holiday, constant strikes, 50% tax rate... very socialist country
I really doubt this is how it's going to work.
First, we shouldn't be expecting 10k/week this year. We should be getting 5k/week sustained in late June to mid July (cautiously optimistic prediction), followed by a cost and process optimisation interval ("3 months probably, 6 months definitely") during which all the remaining versions are slowly added to production, and only after that we will see a slower ramp towards 10k/week. To be fair, I doubt Elon will have the patience or the diligence to fully optimise the production process at 5k/week before starting the next ramp up towards 10k, but that's another discussion and we're not there yet. So overall I fully expect Tesla to reach 10k/week production rate for the Model 3 at some point in the first half of 2019. We may exit 2018 at 7-8k/week.
Once 10k/week is reached, it really wouldn't make sense for them to try to squeeze further increases in Model 3 production at Fremont, instead they will probably be in some advanced stages of building another factory either in China (most likely) or in Europe, or both. Then, for the Model Y, a separate Gigafactory in the States (Elon said something like "we're packed to the gills in Fremont" during the last CC), but this is still very unclear. Again, it wouldn't make sense to only produce the Model Y in China and ship it around the world. The Semi will probably be either at the Giga in Nevada or at Fremont, as they don't plan more than 100k/year.
And on your point regarding 25% margin on the Model 3, I really don't see that happening, at least not without further drops in the production costs of battery packs. Short to mid term (2019) I expect 20% on all the versions combined, possibly a bit more. They can probably get the S and X to 30% though.
My two cents here:
Well, do you have evidence to back your opinion? I'm asking as a Spanish software engineer who's lived in London for a while now and who's been paid by several American and British companies. There are hundreds of thousands of software engineers living in Spain and dozens of thousands working all over the world.
As someone who lives in Spain, you'll also know that trade unions are in disarray and that they barely have presence in the software engineer sectors, apart from legacy consultancies and mammoth sclerotic companies; which Tesla won't want anything to do with.
As for the 35 hour weeks, you'll also know that it depends basically on the company and that many of them have people working 40+ hours per week.
If the hundreds of thousands of software engineers who live in Spain are not good enough (something debatable), I guess that thousands of the ones living abroad, like me, will be more than happy to come back to work for a company that's changing the world (if it thinks we're good enough).
As for the government hostile to solar energy and innovation, I completely agree. It's my opinion and we have a lot of hard data to back it.
I hope it helps.
My experience is of a business person who has hired 30 young graduates in Spain over the past few years. The skills coming out of the universities here are very low (much less than the UK) and most of the so-called "bilingual" students can barely speak English. Couple that with the attitude that they really shouldn't work very hard (and legally people can only work a few dozen hours of overtime each year) then this would be a pretty toxic environment for Tesla to get into.
You are correct, I don't know a great deal about software engineering in Spain. I try and hire the brightest graduates from any discipline, those achieving "premios fin de carrera" and at least at 8 as a final score at university, and they say they don't even know what it is. Maybe I just have an ignorant bunch
As a Belgian, I pretty sad to about this perception of Belgium, and certainly from somebody who barely lives 1000km away from us.
We do have our challenges, but none of the things you mention would matter for choosing Belgium as the next gigafactory location.
Strikes and trade unions are mainly in the government sector, not in the private sector. Holidays are average I think for Europe (20 days of paid vacation and 10 official holidays a year). Private sector working hours are between 38 and 40. Tax rates are indeed high, mostly because of a high redistribution (lots of people get paid by the governement for one reason or another), which results in a high living standard, and fairly low cost of living.
I think the following factors pro and contra are more relevant for locating the eurogigafactory in Belgium:
Pro:
- availability of a couple of recently closed GM and Volkswagen factories
- well positioned to supply anywhere in europe
- skilled work force, capable of speaking English
Contra:
- traffic
- frequent law changes
- everybody who wants to work has work, few skilled people out of a job, try finding a couple of thousand employees in such an environment
My point is that Elon’s ‘packed to the gills’ statement is not consistent with the ‘we can do 1M cars in Fremont statement. My speculation is that when Elon made the ‘packed to the gills’ statement, he already had plans in his mind for the remaining space in Fremont and that those plans prevent using Fremont for the Model Y production. There is a significant difference between producing 600K cars and 1M cars in Fremont, there still must be a significant amount of space left that will be used for something.
My experience is of a business person who has hired 30 young graduates in Spain over the past few years. The skills coming out of the universities here are very low (much less than the UK) and most of the so-called "bilingual" students can barely speak English. Couple that with the attitude that they really shouldn't work very hard (and legally people can only work a few dozen hours of overtime each year) then this would be a pretty toxic environment for Tesla to get into.
You are correct, I don't know a great deal about software engineering in Spain. I try and hire the brightest graduates from any discipline, those achieving "premios fin de carrera" and at least at 8 as a final score at university, and they say they don't even know what it is. Maybe I just have an ignorant bunch
You picked my interest.
Which universities/degrees did you recruit them from? That makes a difference, in regards software engineering and skills, in my opinion. Some of the universities/degrees are a joke (also my opinion), but others are pretty decent. And some of the best software engineers I've worked with don't have a degree, but are highly educated.
As for the "bilingual" statement, agreed. Regarding the attitude, I guess that it depends on the people and their circumstances.
Agree with most of what you wrote, but I think we'll see an asymptotic approach to the max rate of the current line at much less than 10k followed by step changes when new equipment is added to the pinch points. (Unless Elon totally sand bagged and the current equipment will do 10k/wk on its own)
I mean, it's a private company, they really don't have many controls on that type of thing. It's really a non issue, especially with the state of the cap table
The best choice is East Europe ( Poland, Lithuania). Cheap but very hard working labor ( half compare to western Europe), 42 - 48 h week, flexy or none unions, the cheapest logistics in Europe, superb roads, has good access to the sea ports. Close to main markets: scandiniavia + good access to one of the biggest future markets ( Russia).
Unfortunately, we cannot pick and choose which statement fits better with what we want to happen and go with that. I strongly believe that the 1M statement was a very optimistic extrapolation that Elon made, assuming the 'machine-that-makes-the-machine' plan is fully implemented. It would be good for the company to produce close to 1M Model 3s per year, just not all in the same place.
I disagree with this. I feel that his statement was made considering the current plans for ramping up the Model 3 are carried out. No space for additional lines. It may possibly accommodate the Semi assembly line if the battery packs and motors are produced in Nevada.
Yes, there is a significant difference, and I'm not saying Fremont will never reach 1M/year production rate, just not in the next couple of years. It may happen when the S and X are updated. I doubt those two models will ever be produced anywhere else except Fremont.
Yes, I think it's agreed that the current line will reach a sustainable production rate somewhere between 5k and 6k/week. Ramping up to 10k/week requires doubling some sections of the line, and extra equipment for battery pack assembly.
Speaking of which, I'm still not clear on the status of the Grohmann line. I believe it was supposed to be installed and started in April. Are they using it at the moment, or is it all the semi-automatic lines?
MartinAustin
Active Member
K_Dizzle
Member
Poland should get it, they’re very hard working people
Chickenlittle
Banned
One thing puzzles me. Is anyone aware of where tesla semi will be produced? Will it be assembled in gigafactory? Or another facility?
Per Q1 call (or letter, can't recall) the new line is not running yet, but they are at a 5k/wk pack rate anyway.
I thought someone said Semi will be produced at Gigafactory 1, in Nevada. But I could be misremembering.
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In early 2017 Elon teased a possible location for a new Gigafactory in a tristate area including West Virginia (there are at least two of these, including one near Pittsburgh), which seems like a great place to build the pickup and possibly Semi. A lot has changed since then so who knows.
John Paul Brewer@johnpaulbrewer 2h2 hours ago
@elonmuskIs there any chance you would want to build something in WV? We need jobs, we have a good work force, coal isn't the future.
1 reply0 retweets3 likes
Elon MuskVerified account@elonmusk@johnpaulbrewer Something on a tristate border might work. Gigafactory plus nearby supporting supply chain needs a very large workforce.
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