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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Rather than 1M from Fremont, I'd prefer to see a new GF in Europe to build 3/Y/TE products, and another in China to do the same.

Getting 1M from Fremont might be cheaper than GF in Europe (we already know China is happening), but only relatively...

The logistics of getting 1M vehicles a year physically transported out of Fremont will be difficult.
I took it that 1 million production at Fremont was extremely aspiration/optimistic/wishful and not particularly realistic. I don't expect to see production at that level out of Fremont.
 
It's a shame they opted not to be able to do OTA updates on their cruise control. This could have been an easy fix perhaps and emphasizes the strength of Tesla's approach.

Chrysler's problem goes back to MY 2014 vehicles, yet people complain that a 9 month old car line has a SW issue in some braking conditions...
 
Looks like Tesla is going to push out their 200,000th US car delivery to Q3 through extra Canadian deliveries to maximize their fed tax credit. So, July should be full of stories saying the tax credit is disappearing, just in time to counter good news about Model 3 production ramp. Expect lots of negative speculation about whether Tesla can survive the expiration of the fed tax credit...
 
Looks like Tesla is going to push out their 200,000th US car delivery to Q3 through extra Canadian deliveries to maximize their fed tax credit. So, July should be full of stories saying the tax credit is disappearing, just in time to counter good news about Model 3 production ramp. Expect lots of negative speculation about whether Tesla can survive the expiration of the fed tax credit...
If Tesla can't sell cars in the USA after the fed tax credit tell them to send them to Europe, wait times here are more than a few months and there are mostly no tax credits ;)
 
If Tesla can't sell cars in the USA after the fed tax credit tell them to send them to Europe, wait times here are more than a few months and there are mostly no tax credits ;)

Yes, Tesla has lots of options should the US market slow down a bit. Personally I think the fed tax credit isn’t going to affect US sales all that much. Tesla has so much demand for Model 3. But that won’t stop the negative articles and market worry.
 

One of those was mine, MINE I say!

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Netherlands could work, they are pretty liberally minded and highly skilled. Wages shouldn't be any more than California although building costs could be.

I would avoid Belgium at all costs. Trade unions rule, 35 hour weeks, loads of holiday, constant strikes, 50% tax rate... very socialist country

I actually scouted out Eindhoven for another factory.

It was a factory town. Philips main factory so have quite a few skilled labour. However that is in decline and the industral section has a lot of vacancies. It also has a lively downtwon core that most tech workers will enjoy. Unlike other factory towns that are just down right dystopian.

On top of that, the dutch have a somewhat large engineering workforce.

Of course eastern europe will be cheaper, but I haven't been to any town in eastern Europe where the conditions are perfect or resonate with me as a place I'd like to stay and work at.

The surprising twist is that london to eindhoven cost only £25. Cheaper than land transport. Not sure if it is still in effect. Like all factory towns, it is also well connected by rail. Large roads with rarely any traffic and bicycle highways typical of any dutch city.
 
Another great example, yes.
Tesla is already sending some big shipments to China, but demand will still remain higher than what they can ship until the China factory is producing a considerable amount of cars.
Does anyone know what is the mean waiting time for a custom ordered Model S or X in China?
According to the website, if you order today you'll get in September.

It appears that there is a good amount of customs clearance time built in because Australians (a little further shipping distance) can get it in August, and Canadians in late June.
 
One thing puzzles me. Is anyone aware of where tesla semi will be produced? Will it be assembled in gigafactory? Or another facility?

I haven't heard bupkis, but one thing that struck me is that there is still a lot of the gigafactory yet to be built. Perhaps that might be a good spot, as it could be built to suit the Semi's unique needs.

Just conjecture, but it sure would be nice to finish the GF and throw it back in the faces of those who said it would never be completely built out.
 
The best choice is East Europe ( Poland, Lithuania). Cheap but very hard working labor ( half compare to western Europe), 42 - 48 h week, flexy or none unions, the cheapest logistics in Europe, superb roads, has good access to the sea ports. Close to main markets: scandiniavia + good access to one of the biggest future markets ( Russia).

Negative: Russian Army has good access.

Poland: Ruling Law and Justice Party arbitrarily changing the judiciary and creating a toxic relationship with the EU. Risk sanctions from the EU.
 
My point is that Elon’s ‘packed to the gills’ statement is not consistent with the ‘we can do 1M cars in Fremont statement. My speculation is that when Elon made the ‘packed to the gills’ statement, he already had plans in his mind for the remaining space in Fremont and that those plans prevent using Fremont for the Model Y production. There is a significant difference between producing 600K cars and 1M cars in Fremont, there still must be a significant amount of space left that will be used for something.

Roadster and Semi?

I think Elon is still about the alien dreadnaught, but, he may have rethought the pace to develop it. If so, less ambitious plans volume-wise for remaining space at Fremont (Roadster & Semi rather than ~500K 3s or Ys) would make sense.
 
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