TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Esme Es Mejor]

Congratulations to whoever caught the falling knife at $347 (LOL not $247). You're up $6 already

I know someone who caught a falling knife at $247. But that was oh so many weeks ago...

 

[Unpilot]

I doubt we will see $247 again

 

[Tslynk67]

I doubt we will see $247 again

Maybe $1247

 

[Greenback]

Elon talks about how the new assembly line is "way better" than the other general assembly lines inside the Fremont factory. They could achieve a rate of 3500/week prior to the tent, so the "way better" line should put us safely over 5250/week.

 

[Intl Professor]

Wish I'd done this earlier. Sold some BIDU in a rollover IRA to buy 50 shares of TSLA at 353 and change. Determined not to sell TSLA in order to cushion M3 loan (maybe no loan); will sell more BIDU if necessary.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Btw everyone is calling the new manufacturing line enclosure a “tent”. It isn’t a tent. It is a Sprung structure, and is used worldwide when buildings are needed in a hurry. While this one isn’t, yet, they can be environmentally sealed. https://www.army-technology.com/contractors/field/sprung-structures2/

I just realized that I've been staring one of these tents in the face for 13 years in San Jose CA. It's the San Jose Convention Center South Hall, been in use since 2005, still is.

http://www.thesanjoseblog.com/2016/02/san-jose-convention-center-expansion.html

 

[ATHiker]

A 2 minute look at Tesla's new production line, courtesy of Twitter:

https://twitter.com/IspyTsla/status/1009134913881190400

 

[Rashomon]

Elon talks about how the new assembly line is "way better" than the other general assembly lines inside the Fremont factory. They could achieve a rate of 3500/week prior to the tent, so the "way better" line should put us safely over 5250/week.

The new line appears to be final assembly only, after the body is welded and painted. It only increases capacity if the final assembly line was the bottleneck. They may have done this because adding dual-motor models to the standard final assembly line did indeed make it the bottleneck.

 

[Waiting4M3]

A 2 minute look at Tesla's new production line, courtesy of Twitter:

https://twitter.com/IspyTsla/status/1009134913881190400

BTW, this new Twitter account is desperately trying to convince shorts that Tesla is not making M3s.

https://twitter.com/IspyTsla/status/1009110800248668161

@TeslaCharts nothing to see here, especially not new cars

If this is the mentality of shorts, yeah, I can see Elon's 3 week short position explosion prediction coming true.

 

[mutle]

Looks like Tesla needs to beef up security with that guy either trespassing or an employee sharing it on Twitter. The previous guy at least only drove by the parking lots.

On the other hand, you can see some columns being installed, which I think is to be able to close the currently open side of the structure.

 

[Earlian]

Even if we don't see much, this is the kind of stuff, that gets people in trouble.

 

[Matias]

A 2 minute look at Tesla's new production line, courtesy of Twitter:

https://twitter.com/IspyTsla/status/1009134913881190400

Not exactly Alien dreadnought

 

[N5329K]

Why assume the sabotage had any impact on Model 3 production? The consequences are completely undisclosed. They could be limited to Tesla Energy, Model S/X, etc.

I find it useful to always run things like this through the "what do we really know?" filter. In this case, I don't know what the nature of the sabotage was, how it might harm the 5k goal, or, for that matter, whether there was any actual sabotage at all. Building cars is hard on the good days. Building them at the rate of 5k per week when you've never done that before is even harder. Anything that hinders the company's chances to hit that vital....maybe do-or-die... goal might look like sabotage. When things aren't going the way we would like them to go finding someone else to blame is just a sad part of human nature. Not that there wasn't sabotage. Just I haven't seen the facts, if any.
Robin

 

[dc_h]

I doubt we will see $247 again

Does this mean we’re certain to see 247 again?

 

[mongo]

Looks like Tesla needs to beef up security with that guy either trespassing or an employee sharing it on Twitter. The previous guy at least only drove by the parking lots.

On the other hand, you can see some columns being installed, which I think is to be able to close the currently open side of the structure.

You can see the blurred image of the chain link fence they shot the video through at the beginning. Looks like they were on Lopes Court.

 

[BenPrice]

Not exactly Alien dreadnought

Not abnormal.

New line coming up isn’t going to be full blast.

Logistical nightmare bringing all of the components in efficient manner, delegating tech/operator positions.

Can’t build a line in 2 weeks and just go. Literally can’t build a line in 2 weeks...technically it’s still a WIP.

Literally nothing I haven’t seen in multiple major manufacturers before - I’ve watched businesses take 6 months to bring a line online to moderate capacity. (True Mfg, Nissan, Intralox to name a few)

Way too many ways for a person to be hurt or the product to be subpar. Starts slow af, and everybody gradually figures out their role in time from operator, technician, supply tech, supervisor, etc

It is always a sugar show at first - too many people doing it for the first time.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Maybe $1247

$247 - $1247 may be a good range for long term investment risk/reward calculation.

 

[Mike Smith]

Now we know the 3rd line is actually in operation. I think this is what's behind the short squeeze prediction - with a third final assembly line they can probably reach around 7k/wk fairly quickly.

According to the manufacturer these tents should last at least 50 years for the frame, 25 for the material. They aren't just temporary.

 

[wipster]

I find it useful to always run things like this through the "what do we really know?" filter. In this case, I don't know what the nature of the sabotage was, how it might harm the 5k goal, or, for that matter, whether there was any actual sabotage at all. Building cars is hard on the good days. Building them at the rate of 5k per week when you've never done that before is even harder. Anything that hinders the company's chances to hit that vital....maybe do-or-die... goal might look like sabotage. When things aren't going the way we would like them to go finding someone else to blame is just a sad part of human nature. Not that there wasn't sabotage. Just I haven't seen the facts, if any.
Robin

Frankly, I think they should just ban wooden shoes being worn in the factory.

 

[Earlian]

Now we know the 3rd line is actually in operation. I think this is what's behind the short squeeze prediction - with a third final assembly line they can probably reach around 7k/wk fairly quickly.

According to the manufacturer these tents should last at least 50 years for the frame, 25 for the material. They aren't just temporary.

Sure, there are two ways to interpret the video:
1) If that's the line, needed to reach 5k/week - we're doomed.
2) If that's the line, adding new capacity, AFTER they reached 5k/week - we're close to paradise.

What is it?

(anyone want to do a poll?)