I think a significant part of the market is tracking production numbers closely, not so much for deliveries. That's what I've read from different analysts. I think that deliveries are mostly discounted for Q2. A different matter will be Q3/Q4, where the focus will be on revenues, profit and cashflow, so the less vehicles in transit the better.
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I think a significant part of the market is tracking production numbers closely, not so much for deliveries. That's what I've read from different analysts. I think that deliveries are mostly discounted for Q2. A different matter will be Q3/Q4, where the focus will be on revenues, profit and cashflow, so the less vehicles in transit the better.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The stock would not be where it’s at ($350) if the market thinks this.
I think you're probably right. But I think that when they release production and delivery numbers in a few working days, they will get to say "Yes, we produced ~5000 M3 in the last 7 days of the quarter, and we shipped most of them to Canadia and the east coast, so they haven't been delivered yet." I don't think it will matter so long as both statements are made at once. They just don't want to open the door to criticism about holding back deliveries by announcing that first.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t call it good. Random Elon quotes with no context. A newbie to TSLA would freak out reading that article. It makes him sound naive and stumbling around in the dark. It doesn’t even give any details as to why Tesla had a 6 month production delay, and that they fixed it.
jhm
Well-Known Member
This would play into a news nullification response quite well. Shorts will be able to run low delivery in Q2 narrative and reinforce it with an attack on the price. But ultimately this is a bear trap. Deliveries are spring loaded to boost Q3 pushing Tesla into profitability and positive cash flow.
So keep your powder dry until you see the whites of their eyes. Let them fire the first shot. When they attack the price, buy at whatever discount they give us.
A bear trap is the perfect prelude to an epic squeeze. Musk is very skilled at stumbling into the next quarter to set it all up.
Mod: we have enough reports of people ordering Model 3s now. Any more (in the pinned threads) without other content will be summarily deleted. --ggr
Nice price action at the moment...
Nice price action at the moment...
This together with "... burn of the century" and "... position explodes" could be interpreted as social media hyperbole, but I see Elon has placed these words very intentionally. His past use of "next level" to describe semi specs during the unveil, and rockets on the performance next gen roadster were truly that: unanticipated and nearly unimaginable claims. "Tsunami of hurt" also was accurately stated, manifesting as a sustained destruction of waves to short possitions over the medium term.
If Elon says "explodes" I think it litterally means a sudden multitudinal expansion in very small amount of time.
exit...stage left? or trap?
@jhm yes agreed as far as potential bear trap.
they will desperately find something to bend the narrative...but if whatever news comes out is too convincing to dispute, we will have our run sooner than later. then they may be able to apply downward pressure, while bulls are ‘napping off’ a gorging on the shorts.
however if this action turns into a headfake against the bulls, and corrects today/tomorrow, then your original scenario of “don’t buy into news” plays out right?
this is getting interesting.
@jhm yes agreed as far as potential bear trap.
they will desperately find something to bend the narrative...but if whatever news comes out is too convincing to dispute, we will have our run sooner than later. then they may be able to apply downward pressure, while bulls are ‘napping off’ a gorging on the shorts.
however if this action turns into a headfake against the bulls, and corrects today/tomorrow, then your original scenario of “don’t buy into news” plays out right?
this is getting interesting.
dc_h
Active Member
Would love this, but going 2170 in S and X requires design update. The cells are larger and the floor would need to change. Maybe not a full redesign, but significant. Not impossible, but would be shocking. If they dropped SX price based on 2170 cells and ramped production up to 120k or more, it would be huge combined with profits on the 3.
Yes, this will probably work, since we will exclusively focus on deliveries and completely ignore run-rate and production numbers. We are also unable to do this substraction-thing, so we won't even know, how big the gap between production and deliveries is. That is why we will be completely surprised by Q3 delivery numbers. None of us has heard about the tax credit, so we won't be able to assume that they may keep Q2 deliveries artificially low. That's why most of us will probably go 'All-in' right after the Q2 report, so we can lose everything, when Tesla surprisingly reports a profit in Q3 or Q4. We would never have assumed, that Tesla has been pulling costs forward into Q2, reduced CapEx, hoarded ZEV credits and slowly raised production numbers and margins. All the Shorts will be dead by late 2018 ...
It's a pity.
theres some availability. i’m guessing the street is utilizing about 80-85% of available shares to loan. the rates are around 2.5-3.5%. this has been the trend roughly for the last few weeks. while my numbers are not exact, there isn’t enough of a deviation to indicate any crazy departure from recent trends
Without commenting on your personal, analytical skills, I think the media can spin any news from Tesla and Elon Musk into something negative - and how exactly the market will react to such spinning is hard to say, but it hardly helps the SP.
not every short is as smart as you @YasB
some react only to stock twits and shoddy news coverage (as do some bulls). my dog has equal chance at timing the market as those do. and he “ain’t too bright” but he’s cute as can be
jhm
Well-Known Member
If I'm holding borrowed shares, I can buy, hold and sell them as I wish.
Suppose I borrow 1000 share. When I sell 500 shares and hold the other 500, I am 500 shares short. Later I could:
Sell up to 500 more shares and become 1000 shares short
OR buy up to 500 shares and become 0 shares short
OR hold and remain 500 shares short
If I know that I will want to attack the price at a later moment, then I buy back my shares right now so that a can sell them in the coming attack. This is what I mean by "reloading".
Through all this the number of borrowed shares can remain the same. Simply knowing how many shares are lent out or how hard to borrow the stock is does not really tell us how many shares are actually short at a given moment in time. A borrowed share is either held or sold, but only when it is sold is it actually shorted.
except that Elon has already communicated profitability in CQ3
yes mostly. one exception is the concept of being over-borrowed...firms have pretty tight controls over their SLB desks. they tend not to over-borrow, as this increases costs (potentially significantly if rates rise) that can’t be passed to customers (because they are short less than what is borrowed by the broker).
the interday activity follows the previous trading cycles in anticipation of trading settlement, and already settled activity. (locates, new borrows, returns, mark to market on open contracts).
agreed it’s hard to gauge just based upon one part of the equation. you can’t look independently at rates, available shares, short interest (especially this because it’s only reported twice a month), etc etc
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