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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Apologies if this has already been touched on but an observation I just noticed. Tesla opened up Model 3 config to basically everyone now....lots of people placing orders in the final week of June means an extra $2500 per person on the books in Q2. Will likely have a significant impact on final numbers.

It will make the cash number better, but likely won't affect bottom line. Deposits usually show up in the cash line of assets and the deposit line of expenses, so it cancels out. Unless being non refundable make them non-liabilities.
 
“Several sources” maybe. It was, however, explicitly stated by Tesla on the Q4 call that the S and X can not accommodate the 2170 cells. Listen to the call again or read the transcript.

Can not accommodate without complete rearrangement of the inside of the pack.

No need to reconfigure the exterior pack casing nor the car.

Tesla does not want to Osbourne the current Model S with potential buyers waiting for a 2170 Model S.

I know there are some people that think the constraints of real world economics and marketing don't apply to Tesla. But at the end of the day Tesla has a payroll and vendors to pay.
 
Can not accommodate without complete rearrangement of the inside of the pack.

No need to reconfigure the exterior pack casing nor the car.

Tesla does not want to Osbourne the current Model S with potential buyers waiting for a 2170 Model S.

I know there are some people that think the constraints of real world economics and marketing don't apply to Tesla. But at the end of the day Tesla has a payroll and vendors to pay.
I think a major factor in (not) updating MS/X is the tax incentive phase out. They will want to build as many MS/X in Q3/4 and sell them in the US, focusing on the higher priced models. Doing a major redesign in 2H 2018 would be really bad timing for that.
 
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The situation with Tesla is not really comparable with its competitors. The others have huge networks of franchised dealerships that are not counted in the valuations of the manufacturers. Tesla sells and services directly to consumers. The oil industry (including gas stations) greatly benefits from the ICE car industry, yet does not add to the valuations of the automakers. Tesla builds its own network of Supercharger stations, plus solar roofs and storage batteries.
Agreed with this, I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that comparing Tesla's marketcap to the traditional automakers at this point is not really apples to apples.

My WAG estimate of Tesla's current core carmaking business when I wrote that post was about $30 billion if I remember correctly, so a market cap between FCA and F. I think that is a perfectly fair value since I also included the supercharger and service networks in that valuation.

The rest of the valuation I bucketed into the Autonomous systems, Tesla Energy, future car products, etc, with the majority being attributed to the Autonomy business (based on the $15 billion valuation of GM Cruise by Softbank)
 
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I was surprised that the Panasonic battery shortfall news was not taken negatively. I.e. not enough batteries could foil Tesla's attempts to ramp up production. Perhaps it is being taken as a positive because Tesla are showing their prowess on the assembly lines?

I read that article, but I couldn't decipher whether it was actually affecting Tesla or not, or if the media just wanted to spin it that way. Isn't it possible that Panasonic was actually saying that due to the demand of Tesla 18650 cells, they may have had to push off orders by other buyers/manufacturers? I didn't read anything in the article that actually said they weren't able to produce enough cells for Tesla. In fact, wasn't it just 1 month ago that Panasonic noted an overstock of Tesla cells?
 
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So long as we're on the same page. Yes, this is pretty much how the FUD narratives will play out in search of a greater fool to be stuck holding the bag.

But no, not all short will be dead by late 2018. The dumb bears will be slaughtered. The smart ones will short again at the top of the squeeze. They will also continue their propaganda to enlist a new generation fools to be their stooges through the end of the next bear cycle. Shorts are absolutely not going away.

Smart bears lie to dumb bears all day long, and the dumb bears actually believe that Tesla will fail.


(as a response to general discussion of a short squeeze here more so than jhm’s specific comment)

or

-the majority of the short position is about a much bigger game than actually believing/betting that Tesla is overvalued,

-which would be consistent with the fact that there was no short squeeze in 2013,

- and the prediction that there will be no short squeeze in 2018,

-and the hypothesis that those holding the bulk of the short position in Tesla are not crazy or foolish, but rather, working their ultra concentrated wealth network to keep the river of falsehoods about Tesla gushing so as much of the public as possible thinks crazy foolish things about TSLA, Tesla, and its products (ie, media miscoverage of Tesla is far from simply “clickbait” pressures).
 
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I can't tell you how many times we've waited for positive catalysts, then when the come, the stock ranks. This pattern is so pronounced that I proposed a law explaining it.

Law of News Nullification
Whenever Tesla makes positive news, it is necessary for shorts to attack the stock price so as to nullify a positive appraisal of that new.

This is a propaganda technique that works reliably because stock price movement are always construed as how the market reacts to the news. So no matter how positive the news may objectively be, if the stock price tank, it will be understood that the market did not think that the news was good at all.

It is a form of gas lighting. Tesla could report that it sustained 6k/week Model 3 production in the last two weeks of June. The stock price falls 10% the following day. From that point on the actual production success is rendered irrelevant or suspicious, as the narrative turns to try to explain why the market reacted to badly too it.

The cognitive error here is to assume that the stock movement was reflective of how investors in the market appraised the news. The point of the news nullification law is to clarify that shorts have a perverse motive to force the price down so as not to lose narrative control of the stock. In other words, they are willing to lose money so as to create an illusion.

Once you recognize that certain powerful forces are essentially waging a propaganda war against Tesla, it becomes clear how to trade against that.
  1. Never buy in anticipation of positive news.
  2. Buy after positive news has come out and the stock price has been punished to nullify it.
Rule one is to avoid enabling news nullification by inflating the price before the positive news comes out making it easy for shortages to drive the price down dramatically. And rule two takes advantage of the willingness of Tesla foes to lose money to gas light good news. Additionally, after the good news does come out you actually have a stronger cognitive basis for making a rational investment, a part from the stock manipulation going on. If Teala is genuinely doing better, then a higher long term valuation warranted.

Of course, the tricky thing is that shorts are not always successful in driving down prices after good news has come out. As a law, they are always compelled to try to nullify the news, but they are not always successful. Trying to anticipate these failed attempts is probably riskier than simply accepting that they sometimes happen. This goes back to rule one. If you think you can anticipate a failed news nullification event, you are likely participating in momentary pre-news hype. The bigger the pre-news hype is the more likely and severe the nullification will be.

So keep this in mind as we anticipate quarterly numbers coming out. The better those numbers are, the more severely the stock will be punished.

I have recently made a last call on sub $330 prices. That was the price we should have bought at in preparation for the coming news. If the price goes much above $350 pre-news, watch out. If the news is good, they will beat it back, but there is no need for it to go below $330 ever again, unless longs lose the fortitude to buy at a really good price. You'll also notice that I often encourage longs to buy when the stock is beaten up. The fortitude to do so collectively puts a floor on the price and is the smartest way to make money off of the bullying tactics of shorts.

We'll see how this next round goes. If we keep the price between $330 and $350 until the good news comes out, then we are in a good position to weather the news nullification that will follow. For example the stock gets knocked back about $10, pauses the next day, and roars back up the day after that. Then we're in position to see $430 or something like that in a month or so.

So all this is the ravings of a madman. Invest at your own discretion.

not at all the ravings of a madman, just a very good phrase, “news nullification,” for what many of us have experienced repeatedly. thanks for spelling it out so nicely for those who’ve not lived through it enough to see it on their own yet.
 
Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

Great data.

Has anyone seem a more complete roll up?

Tesla includes sales centers, while all legacy car companies rely on dealers.

Example: ~4000 GM dealers in US, estimated $11M invested per dealership, so ~$45B. This is outside GM’s value, but not outside Tesla’s.

This is only one piece.

Are there other, perhaps larger examples?

EDIT: Curt already posted with a better and more complete response.
 
why such a huge difference in market cap between toyota and everyone else? Arent VW's sales about the same?

Toyotas net income in 2017 was north of $22 billion and they are trading on a PE ratio of about 9. They sold ~9 million cars to achieve that. VW Group had to sell more than 10.5 million cars in 2017 to generate a net income of less than $15 billion and is currently trading at a PE ratio of 6 or something like that. VW still has problems because of dieselgate, is struggling with WLTP and has lower net margins. This also means the chance to run into more trouble when the automotive cycle is ending is bigger, since this usually hits margins.

More or less similar reasons can be found for the other car makers. Daimler is working on it's own dieselgate and is selling much less cars, Fords margins are pretty small and so on ...
 
Apologies if this has already been touched on but an observation I just noticed. Tesla opened up Model 3 config to basically everyone now....lots of people placing orders in the final week of June means an extra $2500 per person on the books in Q2. Will likely have a significant impact on final numbers.

I had the same thought. This is non-refundable. A lot of people report ordering.

Does anyone have a guess as to how many?

For example, 20,000 orders could become $50M immediate cash. Could this be part of a 2Q cash surprise?
 
W
Quickie overview while waiting for the inverse of the last 4th of July's market action...

2170 is only 5 mm taller than an 18650. The 3's pack design only has connections on the top of the cell, whereas the S/X pack has connections on top and bottom. The extra bottom space on the S/X plus reduction in top side connection clearance can make up for the 5mm taller cell. Going with fewer module frees up area for packaging which, combined with more kWh per cell, could eliminate the double stack at the end of the 100 kWh pack.
would be great if they can. make a 90 or 100 the base and 120 with 2170 cells the high end. A 400 mile range car in 2018 would really hurt those 2022 Tesla killers.
 
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(as a response to general discussion of a short squeeze here more so than jhm’s specific comment)

or

-the majority of the short position is about a much bigger game than actually believing/betting that Tesla is overvalued,

-which would be consistent with the fact that there was no short squeeze in 2013,

- and the prediction that there will be no short squeeze in 2018,

-and the hypothesis that those holding the bulk of the short position in Tesla are not crazy or foolish, but rather, working their ultra concentrated wealth network to keep the river of falsehoods about Tesla gushing so as much of the public as possible thinks crazy foolish things about TSLA, Tesla, and its products (ie, media miscoverage of Tesla is far from simply “clickbait” pressures).

If there is so much big money being used against Tesla, I don’t get why they wouldn’t just buy the company in a hostile takeover and then kill it?

With ~$40 billion (correction: $12 billion) short, that was about the same as the market cap of the company not that long ago. Seems like a more rational use of anti-Tesla money than conspiratorially pouring more and more money in just to temporarily hold the share price down for a little longer.

Edit: Appreciate the correction from members on the dollar value of short, I got mixed up with the 40 million shares short.
 
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