I can't tell you how many times we've waited for positive catalysts, then when the come, the stock ranks. This pattern is so pronounced that I proposed a law explaining it.
Law of News Nullification
Whenever Tesla makes positive news, it is necessary for shorts to attack the stock price so as to nullify a positive appraisal of that new.
This is a propaganda technique that works reliably because stock price movement are always construed as how the market reacts to the news. So no matter how positive the news may objectively be, if the stock price tank, it will be understood that the market did not think that the news was good at all.
It is a form of gas lighting. Tesla could report that it sustained 6k/week Model 3 production in the last two weeks of June. The stock price falls 10% the following day. From that point on the actual production success is rendered irrelevant or suspicious, as the narrative turns to try to explain why the market reacted to badly too it.
The cognitive error here is to assume that the stock movement was reflective of how investors in the market appraised the news. The point of the news nullification law is to clarify that shorts have a perverse motive to force the price down so as not to lose narrative control of the stock. In other words, they are willing to lose money so as to create an illusion.
Once you recognize that certain powerful forces are essentially waging a propaganda war against Tesla, it becomes clear how to trade against that.
- Never buy in anticipation of positive news.
- Buy after positive news has come out and the stock price has been punished to nullify it.
Rule one is to avoid enabling news nullification by inflating the price before the positive news comes out making it easy for shortages to drive the price down dramatically. And rule two takes advantage of the willingness of Tesla foes to lose money to gas light good news. Additionally, after the good news does come out you actually have a stronger cognitive basis for making a rational investment, a part from the stock manipulation going on. If Teala is genuinely doing better, then a higher long term valuation warranted.
Of course, the tricky thing is that shorts are not always successful in driving down prices after good news has come out. As a law, they are always compelled to try to nullify the news, but they are not always successful. Trying to anticipate these failed attempts is probably riskier than simply accepting that they sometimes happen. This goes back to rule one. If you think you can anticipate a failed news nullification event, you are likely participating in momentary pre-news hype. The bigger the pre-news hype is the more likely and severe the nullification will be.
So keep this in mind as we anticipate quarterly numbers coming out. The better those numbers are, the more severely the stock will be punished.
I have recently made a last call on sub $330 prices. That was the price we should have bought at in preparation for the coming news. If the price goes much above $350 pre-news, watch out. If the news is good, they will beat it back, but there is no need for it to go below $330 ever again, unless longs lose the fortitude to buy at a really good price. You'll also notice that I often encourage longs to buy when the stock is beaten up. The fortitude to do so collectively puts a floor on the price and is the smartest way to make money off of the bullying tactics of shorts.
We'll see how this next round goes. If we keep the price between $330 and $350 until the good news comes out, then we are in a good position to weather the news nullification that will follow. For example the stock gets knocked back about $10, pauses the next day, and roars back up the day after that. Then we're in position to see $430 or something like that in a month or so.
So all this is the ravings of a madman. Invest at your own discretion.