The end game is when we find out whether there is sufficient demand for M3 at a price level which will enable Tesla to be sustainably profitable.
I really hope that shorts are hanging their hats on this demand notion. The more shorts, the better IMHO. Here are the facts for you that should scare shorts, but they are not so smart:
1) It is all but illegal for Tesla to sell in several states in the US. At some point this will end.
2) Tax incentives are nice, but Tesla does not need them. 3 simple moves could allow Tesla to negate any tax credit losses. a. 2170 cells at 35% less expensive. b) Refresh of S/X to bring in simplified Model 3 automation. 1 Screen, HUD and A/C system from Model 3 while improving, moving up market the S/X interior. c) Killing S/X 75D at low margins and replace with S/X 120D based on 2170. 75D replaced by 3/Y LRD at MUCH higher margins and value. All of these things would allow Tesla to drop the price while further differentiating S/X from 3/Y giving more Value for roughly $5k less sticker price and higher margins due to higher ASP product mix of 100D+
3) Tesla has 90% rate of return, which means that people who bought Tesla 3-5 years ago are returning at a 90% rate. This number continues to grow ever as fast as Tesla grew sales, about 70% a year. Tesla only just hit 100k/Y S+X, this means that Tesla has at least another 30% headroom for existing customers alone. More demand than they can make cars.
4) Tesla still has 450K reservations, even after fulfilling 20,000 orders. Tesla cannot fulfill the demand that is there faster than they can get new orders.
5) Macro. Trump is crazy, no debating, but he is just crazy enough to get Tariffs dropped on US cars imported to China and Europe. For every $5-10k in price drop, the size of the market doubles. That means China is a $4B market just for S/X and $20B market for 3/Y. There is a good chance that Tesla could sell 100,000 S/X outside the US alone. now they just need to figure out how to make more.
6) Fed Tax credits are going away, but states are adding incentives. Recently NY.
7) Lack of legitimate Competition. Ipace is nice, but very expensive and small. All these 2020 Tesla killers are on par with the 2013 S60D in terms of range and battery tech. There is no serious battery supply yet for all the 2020 Tesla killers and Jag will only make 20k Ipace because its not profitable and they have no battery supply. This means Tesla will soak up all that demand for another decade as the surviving OEMs play catch up.
8) Tesla has one of the most valuable brands on the planet. In China, they love Tesla. Maybe more than we do here in America.
I could do 100 more reasons, but this should just about do it.
