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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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BTW, I'm no longer worried about hype going into the news next week. The price range has been quite sober minded. Buying under $350 is a pretty good deal. My subjective impression is that if there is some downward price action Monday or Tuesday (news nullification of the quarterly numbers), it will be mild, maybe falling as low as $340. Of course, more severe stuff can happen. But if you can accumulate shares today near $345, I don't think you will do much better early next week.

I'm just relieved the stock did not climb to $365 or higher, which would have been an easy swat down for shorts.

Remember leave the rocket in the bottle to launch. Don't try to pull it up while the fuse is lit. Just step back and watch it do its thing. Here's to some fun and safe fireworks.
I bought a small position in July 13 $350C earlier at $348, it's under water now, but I don't care because I think anything under $350 is a good deal at this point, and also I just got the call from Tesla :D I'll be spending my weekend obsessing about my M3 delivery instead of TSLA. I'm sure by this time next week we'll all be doing fine.
 
I bought a small position in July 13 $350C earlier at $348, it's under water now, but I don't care because I think anything under $350 is a good deal at this point, and also I just got the call from Tesla :D I'll be spending my weekend obsessing about my M3 delivery instead of TSLA. I'm sure by this time next week we'll all be doing fine.

You'll have to change your user name then!
 
BP purchased Chargemaster for $200M. 6500 (mostly slow) change points in one country Only 140,000 EVs in the UK. Whereas, Tesla has 320 Supercharging Stalls. Estimating 300-600 Destination Charging locations (perhaps with multiple stalls)

So how does that help us to value the Tesla Supercharging Network and does this transaction move the share price needle? Should it?

So far, June 2018, Tesla has installed ~300 Supercharging Stalls bringing the network to 1300 locations and 10k+ stalls. 10 new stalls, every single day. An unknown number of destination charging stalls.

I think the Chargemaster network is even less valuable than the Tesla Destination Charging Network. By way of example, Norfolk VA installed 100 chargers in 10 different municipal parking lots in one project. There is nobody and nothing comparable at work in the United States. Nobody is giving away chargers and paying for installation.

Has anyone seen a count lately? Elon stated that destinations would outnumber superchargers "by an order of magnitude".

Does anyone else think this is getting overlooked in our review of share price movement? Or by the share-buying public? This doesn't seem to get the press or attention.

Wow, that is about $31k per charge point! Why would BP pay that much? They could simply install chargers at their own stores for much less, especially if we are talking about Level 2 chargers. Could this simply be a buy out the competition play?

For comparison, what is Tesla's capex per charge point. I'm thinking maybe $20k to $25k per supercharger, but one charger can deliver around 1000 kWh charge per day, while a level 2 charger might supply around 200 kWh per day. Easily a Supercharger is worth 5 times a Level 2 charger just in terms of capacity. But drivers are willing to pay a premium for a fast charge and will choose a slow charge to save money. So maybe delivering a fast kWh is twice as profitable.

But let's play the fantasy BS valuation game. Say 1 Level 2 charger is worth $30k in market cap, 1 Supercharger worth 5x2 Level 2 chargers. Tesla has 10k Superchargers. Thus, Tesla's Supercharger network is worth about $30k x 5 x 2 x 10k = $3B. Anybody buy that?

Hmm, I wonder how much BP would be willing to pay to buyout Tesla's Supercharger business. Would Musk, the board and shareholders be willing to part with it for $3B?
 
Wow, that is about $31k per charge point! Why would BP pay that much? They could simply install chargers at their own stores for much less, especially if we are talking about Level 2 chargers. Could this simply be a buy out the competition play?

For comparison, what is Tesla's capex per charge point. I'm thinking maybe $20k to $25k per supercharger, but one charger can deliver around 1000 kWh charge per day, while a level 2 charger might supply around 200 kWh per day. Easily a Supercharger is worth 5 times a Level 2 charger just in terms of capacity. But drivers are willing to pay a premium for a fast charge and will choose a slow charge to save money. So maybe delivering a fast kWh is twice as profitable.

But let's play the fantasy BS valuation game. Say 1 Level 2 charger is worth $30k in market cap, 1 Supercharger worth 5x2 Level 2 chargers. Tesla has 10k Superchargers. Thus, Tesla's Supercharger network is worth about $30k x 5 x 2 x 10k = $3B. Anybody buy that?

Hmm, I wonder how much BP would be willing to pay to buyout Tesla's Supercharger business. Would Musk, the board and shareholders be willing to part with it for $3B?

Yes, I tend to agree with you. It would have made more logical sense to have added charging stations to existing fossil fuel sites.

He who controls the fossil fuel controls the flat world.
 
BP purchased Chargemaster for $200M. 6500 (mostly slow) change points in one country Only 140,000 EVs in the UK. Whereas, Tesla has 320 Supercharging Stalls. Estimating 300-600 Destination Charging locations (perhaps with multiple stalls)

So how does that help us to value the Tesla Supercharging Network and does this transaction move the share price needle? Should it?

So far, June 2018, Tesla has installed ~300 Supercharging Stalls bringing the network to 1300 locations and 10k+ stalls. 10 new stalls, every single day. An unknown number of destination charging stalls.

I think the Chargemaster network is even less valuable than the Tesla Destination Charging Network. By way of example, Norfolk VA installed 100 chargers in 10 different municipal parking lots in one project. There is nobody and nothing comparable at work in the United States. Nobody is giving away chargers and paying for installation.

Has anyone seen a count lately? Elon stated that destinations would outnumber superchargers "by an order of magnitude".

Does anyone else think this is getting overlooked in our review of share price movement? Or by the share-buying public? This doesn't seem to get the press or attention.




The cost per charger may make more sense if we figure BP just wants to run it into the ground. Make use very costly and/or stalls are always broken etc.
 
The sort of hypothetical I'm talking about is where buying is meh and shorts walk away. As that happens the supply of shares available to be held long shrinks. So you have an increase in share price that is strictly based on the anti-dilutive effect of shorts exiting.

The point of entertaining that hypothetical was to argue as you do that it is really the sustained buying pressure that generates substantial lift in share price. Shorts create a lot of drama that captures our attention, but steady accumulation of shares by long-term investors is what matters most but gets the least attention.

It appears that we are in agreement for the most part. But I think that you need to consider the corner cases in your hypothetical, given the magnitude of the current short position.
 
I don't know how they're going to get past that in their current independant dealership model. Only way to do it is to create an entirely new, company-owned brand, somewhat Saturn like, that only sells electric cars... You know like that company Tesla?

Alternatively, the USA could try to catch up with the rest of the world and abolish the laws that protect the dealership monopoly. You know, deregulate and let the market decide what works best.
 
Alternatively, the USA could try to catch up with the rest of the world and abolish the laws that protect the dealership monopoly. You know, deregulate and let the market decide what works best.

You clearly don't understand what "free market" means. It means big businesses greasing the palms of politicians of a certain political bent to write the laws to give them an advantage or monopoly in the marketplace and discourage and disadvantage smaller competitors.

No, no, no need to thank me. I'm just glad to clear that up.
 
You sir, confuse "free market" with "corporate America".

I do hope my deep sarcasm did shine through a bit. If not my apologies. ;) Up to 15 years ago I WAS a Republican but now days I've let how deeply concerned I am for the direction of my country come out a bit too much.

On a more on topic note, I'm almost surprised Tesla is doing as well as they are! Considering they've pissed off Wall Street, Big Oil, Big Auto, and an entire political cult that is currently running the country it's a wonder they've gotten this far. When did supporting an American company, which employs American workers, driving American innovation, shifting energy sources to American production, reducing dependence on hostile states, conserving American resources for our future generations stop being conservative? I must have missed the **** memo!
 
That's an extremely dangerous thing to bet against. You've presumably already read the reports about how much the estimated build cost should be from those that have torn it down. Questioning overall demand seems quite foolish to me given the high customer deposits, brand loyalty, etc. You cannot argue once more of them are on the road, interest from other potential buyers will obviously increase, too. Cars advertise themselves.

I stand by my belief that the only argument shorts _might_ have is valuation, or the hope something drastic happens (model 3 having mass recalls or something). Also a risky bet.

As far as valuation is concerned, in this market, likely your only hope there is essentially for a market crash. That is certainly possible, but probably not until 2019 or 2020. Until then, there is quite a large risk to you for a major run-up in the stock price. The evidence now overwhelmingly suggest that ~ $250 was the bottom. You are playing a silly game right now.

If you get lucky and see ~ $320 again in the near future, I'd certainly cut your losses and get out then.
As a Long with dry powder available soon, I wouldn't be adverse to a quick dip to $250 so I could add to my portfolio at a bargain. ;)

You clearly don't understand what "free market" means. It means big businesses greasing the palms of politicians of a certain political bent to write the laws to give them an advantage or monopoly in the marketplace and discourage and disadvantage smaller competitors.

No, no, no need to thank me. I'm just glad to clear that up.
"Greasing the palms" has such a negative vibe. The proper term of art for the described behavior is "campaign contribution". :D
 
I can't wait to see the numbers next week. News feeds are publishing that we aren't at 5000/week. Elon makes it sound like we are and a short squeeze is coming. After years of getting burned expecting good results that never come, I'm still putting my faith in Elon because he has never been this vocal about results so close to their reveal. However, If we fall short again and the SP drops, I'm going to stop listening to Elon completely....
 
I can't wait to see the numbers next week. News feeds are publishing that we aren't at 5000/week. Elon makes it sound like we are and a short squeeze is coming. After years of getting burned expecting good results that never come, I'm still putting my faith in Elon because he has never been this vocal about results so close to their reveal. However, If we fall short again and the SP drops, I'm going to stop listening to Elon completely....

You don’t think there may be any deliveries update/leak over the weekend?
 
I can't wait to see the numbers next week. News feeds are publishing that we aren't at 5000/week. Elon makes it sound like we are and a short squeeze is coming. After years of getting burned expecting good results that never come, I'm still putting my faith in Elon because he has never been this vocal about results so close to their reveal. However, If we fall short again and the SP drops, I'm going to stop listening to Elon completely....

I would dial back expectstions a bit. He made those comments three weeks ago when he was beaming with confidence, lots could change in 3 weeks. Have dry powder in case.
 
I can't wait to see the numbers next week. News feeds are publishing that we aren't at 5000/week. Elon makes it sound like we are and a short squeeze is coming. After years of getting burned expecting good results that never come, I'm still putting my faith in Elon because he has never been this vocal about results so close to their reveal. However, If we fall short again and the SP drops, I'm going to stop listening to Elon completely....

Elon hasn't come out to say anything specifically about the results of this last week's production. I would argue that his "rude awakening" could have applied to anything that Tamberrino said: 5k is not sustainable. 22,000 deliveries for the quarter.
I might even argue that if elon could tweet "5k is in the bag!" he would tweet it. He's done that before for other sections of the line.
I think everything points to this week-up till now- being at 4500 or so.

It seems likely to me that news reports will run with "tesla misses again" and there will be a sell-the-news situation. Remember- we climbed from 330 to about 355 on the news that they were at 4300 last week so to some degree a production of 4300 is priced in.
 
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I would dial back expectstions a bit. He made those comments three weeks ago when he was beaming with confidence, lots could change in 3 weeks. Have dry powder in case.

Seriously you would hold dry powder because you’re convinced Elon was misguided when he tweeted about short burn of the century and shorts position exploding?

Don’t you give him any benefit of the doubt?

He is a pretty smart guy and he knows way more than we do.

I’m anticipating a major announcement.
 
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