TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[generalenthu]

Tons of activity today, outside of the market. Helped 2 buddies place their model 3 orders.

Edit: wrong thread, hope Audi let's it slide.

 

[mershaw2001]

That's a limited edition "Short's shorts" color....

Post of the year.

 

[neroden]

Those were the convertible bonds that had the call spread placed on them by tesla, so that unless the price was over 520 there would be no dilution, correct? Add to the bad actors keeping the price low the sellers of the long call spread.

Yep (though the upper price is $512.66 to be precise)

 

[Todd Burch]

Post of the year.

Not to mention that he properly deployed the pertinent possessives and plurals pertaining to the poop.

 

[jelloslug]

Not to mention that he properly deployed the pertinent possessives and plurals pertaining to the poop.

That post is plum purdy, particularly the parts pertaining to poop and plurals.

 

[SteveG3]

Ok, I see. You are thinking of a short squeeze as a situation where shorts net exiting drives the price up, a sort of exothermic reaction. I tend to think of a short squeeze more plainly as a situation where individual shorts are forced to exit their positions at a loss. This may be more a matter of long buying pressure than a self-sustaining short phenomenon, an endothermic reaction if you will.

I think an exothermic short of short squeeze is rather unlikely (especially where shorting is motivated non-investment concerns) and actually not so useful as a trading strategy. Shorts can hang out and lose as much money as they like as far as I'm concerned.

Okay, sounds like we are in agreement that what I think of as a short squeeze (a situation where shorts being forced to exit their positions rapidly drives a very large spike in the share price) does not explain the massive TSLA rise in 2013, nor is one likely to occur in 2018.

fwiw, I think TSLA will have a large short position into the 2020s, due to the likely existence of a large “bigger game” portion of the short position (enormous concentrated wealth resulting from the status quo energy economy more or less attempting to decelerate the transition to EV rather than a belief/bet that Tesla is overvalued) I think we both agree is likely going on.

I think looking forward to highly likely stock appreciation for Tesla over years due to an increasing underlying value of the company is constructive, while I sense anticipation of a “short squeeze” is not likely to be particularly helpful. I get the impression you see it similarly jhm.

 

[Reciprocity]

The value of the fossil fuel industry appears to be greater than $100 Trillion.

If Tesla succeeds with power, battery storage, and transport, that value plummets in the direction of zero.

Many, many people own a part of it. For example, anyone still own a ICE car?

Many, many people work somewhere in the industry.

If Tesla dies, will most or all of the Tesla killers die as well? I think all of them die, until the Chinese arrive and take over.

Why not just buy Tesla and kill it? Wouldn’t it be far more profitable to cut off it’s cash, short it, and kill it?

At this point, only Tesla can kill Tesla. Tesla does not need to go to market for funding, though they should and will as long as the market plays ball. The model 3 is already competitive in it's class and beyond. $100/KWh is a flawed metric because it does not count fuel and maintenance cost savings, only drivertrain. That makes the model 3 pack at say $150/KWh conservatively is already completive and could compete all the way down to the sub compact segment if the pack was made for a smaller car. If Tesla doesn't need the markets, the stock could go to zero as long as Tesla could self fund. As we all know, It won't go to zero if Tesla can self fund.

I'm actually surprised that the entities that want Tesla dead haven't went around buying up lithium mines or more importantly, nickel mines. So that they could deny Tesla access. More then likely they have to much hubris and think they can kill Tesla on the cheap.

China is a great point. They can't stop China, see solar. They have flooded the market with so much cheap solar that it's now cheaper to deploy new solar then run old coal plants. Solar is already Certainly cheaper then building new coal plants.

The war is already over, they just havnt figured it out that they have already lost. Tesla is only maybe 18-24 months from being in a situation where they can duplicate in parallel, several gigafactories with integrated auto manufacturing. All at 10x faster than it took to initially invent all that stuff. Copying and iterating is much faster than starting from scratch.

Can Tesla survive that long. I have zero doubts of that. Would take a major Black swan event.. Knock on wood.

 

[Richard007]

I disagree. I Used to think that but the reality of the situation is the ground beneath all these existing energy interests is changing as is the very culture of these companies with young graduates coming out of school.
Don’t underestimate the cultural change that’s taking place in the United States and worldwide in regards to energy and the prophets to be made not just by Tesla but by other companies.

 

[Richard007]

I was replying to SteveG3

 

[defc0n]

I’m thinking there will be strong upward movement when Q2 deliveries are released that I don’t want to miss out on based upon others sentiment. Going to buy tomorrow and do my best to hold until Q2 financials possibly. I feel the hype train may be coming back.

Expecting some other big upcoming news within the next few weeks too...

 

[SteveG3]

(snip)

I'm actually surprised that the entities that want Tesla dead haven't went around buying up lithium mines or more importantly, nickel mines. So that they could deny Tesla access. More then likely they have to much hubris and think they can kill Tesla on the cheap.

(snip)

over the past couple of years, it has crossed my mind that this,

Historical Cobalt Prices and Price Chart

might be a move within a “bigger game” to try to slow down Tesla and its mission.

of course, Elon, JB, et al, have turned that massive spike in cobalt prices into a Tesla advantage with far lower cobalt content than typical EVs and a plan to eliminate cobalt entirely from their battery chemistry.

 

[SteveG3]

I disagree. I Used to think that but the reality of the situation is the ground beneath all these existing energy interests is changing as is the very culture of these companies with young graduates coming out of school.
Don’t underestimate the cultural change that’s taking place in the United States and worldwide in regards to energy and the prophets to be made not just by Tesla but by other companies.

I don’t follow what the energy companies are doing as closely as the incumbent ICE makers, though I am aware the Koch’s have spent money advertising EVs as undesirable. As far as those incumbent ICE makers, nearly across the board, they seem to be transitioning to EVs as slowly as possible (Chinese automakers being an exception).

 

[traxila]

At this point, only Tesla can kill Tesla. Tesla does not need to go to market for funding, though they should and will as long as the market plays ball. The model 3 is already competitive in it's class and beyond. $100/KWh is a flawed metric because it does not count fuel and maintenance cost savings, only drivertrain. That makes the model 3 pack at say $150/KWh conservatively is already completive and could compete all the way down to the sub compact segment if the pack was made for a smaller car. If Tesla doesn't need the markets, the stock could go to zero as long as Tesla could self fund. As we all know, It won't go to zero if Tesla can self fund.

I'm actually surprised that the entities that want Tesla dead haven't went around buying up lithium mines or more importantly, nickel mines. So that they could deny Tesla access. More then likely they have to much hubris and think they can kill Tesla on the cheap.

China is a great point. They can't stop China, see solar. They have flooded the market with so much cheap solar that it's now cheaper to deploy new solar then run old coal plants. Solar is already Certainly cheaper then building new coal plants.

The war is already over, they just havnt figured it out that they have already lost. Tesla is only maybe 18-24 months from being in a situation where they can duplicate in parallel, several gigafactories with integrated auto manufacturing. All at 10x faster than it took to initially invent all that stuff. Copying and iterating is much faster than starting from scratch.

Can Tesla survive that long. I have zero doubts of that. Would take a major Black swan event.. Knock on wood.

You are saying that Tesla is two years away from being able to produce several integrated battery / car gigafactories simultaneously. And if it is 10x faster, um a gigagafactory a year? But several of them simultaneously.

Come on now what are you saying? Love the vision stuff, but seriously.

Can we please, can we please hit 5,000 high quality M3 per week, please?

And how about a Tuscan Solar roof? Ready to overpay. Please?

And don’t forget the batteries dammit! That is the secret sauce!

 

[TheMrX]

Mais non, mes amis. The truth - she is even a leetle more terrible than even le monsieur YasB thinks. Those evil overlords are, rather than providing them pain, instead placing them in le brioche booth. Nom d’un nom et sacre bleu!

Si Monsieur Spirou se joint aux forces de Tesla par la consécration de ses expressions par le modérateur lui-même! Alors, par ma barbe, c'est bachi-bouzouk de ''shorts'' n'ont qu'à bien se tenir!

À bien y penser, on a qu'à boire le ''kool-aid'' de Monsieur Panoramusk, parce qu'en fait, c'est un ingrédient secret de la potion magique.

Du coup je viens d'ajouter Tintin et Asterisk à la bande ; les carrottes sont cuite!

EN AVANT LES AMIS!!!

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Looks like they're going to miss again: Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

This is really frustrating.

 

[Big Earl]

Looks like they're going to miss again: Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

This is really frustrating.

Welcome to several pages ago. Please try to keep up.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Welcome to several pages ago. Please try to keep up.

Sorry - in Japan now so out of sync.

 

[Richard007]

Looks like they're going to miss again: Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

This is really frustrating.

Thanks for the news I’m dumping all my stock. Wait this is fake news, so I’m loading up on more stock!

Stock has been zooming up on what insiders know! 5K will be reached and more next quarter!

This Tesla story keeps gettting better! Everyone is buying model 3! The best selling car in America!

Exciting days!

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Whomever is leaking this information is probably another
Sabotager , with the intent to harm the firm. This is
Not whistleblowing.

It would be known in a few days anyhow - must be in the delivery update.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

You’re my favorite short. You’re way better than that bird guy .

Say it ain't so!