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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Ugh, why am I not surprised that we spike on good news and then end up red during the day? A lot of analysts are probably butt hurt that Tesla is beating their bearish outlook. It's okay, I'm still holding onto my shares. I didn't want to risk selling in pre-market and try to buy back lower this time around, it was too risky in case stock decides to shoot up north.
 
CF who? They think 5k is unsustainable, just like 2k was unsustainable...

On October 1, 2016, CFRA acquired S&P Global’s Equity and Fund Research business. They have some influence on institutional investors. Efraim Levy was one of the analysts involved in the move from S&P to CFRA. He has regularly bounced between Hold and Sell on TSLA, but always with qualifications regarding potential positives as again is the case today.
 
Official report says "produced" in the very 1st sentence, so this whole "factory gated" drama is pure nonsense.

Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month

agree. bought some short term options this morning after the 7k announcement + 1gwh project and added more when the production numbers came out. everything was very positive in my opinion and i really thought a short squeeze could begin.
just trying to understand where they get this "factory gated" from and how easily it could be debunked. So does anyone has the full letter to employees?
 
Can't wait to buy some July 20 360 calls when IV settles
Given the insane-high IV, if I am in a position to buy more stock this week, I'm planning to sell deep OTM puts (maybe $550? $600?) in order to acquire stock while harvesting IV and time value. (The danger: the stock actually skyrockets past the price and I end up with the cash rather than the stock.) I don't think I have the margin capacity to do it comfortably though, so I'll have to calculate.
 
While his overall thesis is nonsense, I find it plausible that 5K cars “factory gated” does indeed mean Model 3s produced from raw materials for the week AND 3s that had largely been produced prior to last week, but received some final work to put them in ready to ship status by the end of last week. If this is the case, for the big picture it means nothing, but re the very short-term “market action,” this (and some accompanying efforts to attempt to paint Elon as slippery/untrustworthy) might get some traction as something of a brief downward vector on the share price among some strong upward vectors this week. Doesn’t change the reality that current ongoing events are core good old days in Tesla’s emergence : ).


And,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...paign=headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo


This game is not going away anytime soon.

As much as Gordon Johnson is on the media megaphone we have an opening in the comments section to point out his apparent association with Jim Chanos, and Chanos’ apparent campaign of misinformation and Chanos goonish activities in regard to Fairfax Holdings as raised in Fairfax’s lawsuit and Matt Tiabbi’s book of investigative journalism.

If the media keeps putting these guys on air, we can keep alerting people to heavy concerns re their operating via falsehoods, attempts to mislead, bully, etc.

Put it in the comments section
when these guys are given the media megaphone. Taibbi’s name and book are worth having at least as well known as Jim Chanos and Gordon Johnson. If we start doing this, and refer to chapter 6 of The Divide (Taibbi’s book) awareness will multiply. They are spreading misinformation, we can spread awareness about the misinformation.
 
For me, today's price action is a crystal clear indication that the other side is a well-organized force rather than a bunch of clueless individual shorts that honestly believe a short thesis and bet money on it. And while they have enough power to manipulate the stock they will continue to do so while some of us will keep trying to find logic in the short term price action.
P.S. That's why I stopped playing short-term TSLA long time ago

Yes there is no way there are enough random day traders sitting in their underwear that think "Good news about TSLA, let me initiate a short position NOW!" to account for this kind of market action - it takes a ton of shorting to push the stock down ~$25 against exuberant bulls.
 
Well, now it is getting more interesting. As those of you who have suffered through my posts before (and I do appreciate it) know, I am one of the shorts who has been rooting for Tesla to hit the 5k number as we believe it will bring the demand & profitability issues into sharper focus. I had expected a little gap before attention switched, but fortunately the negative net reservation number (a first, I think, for Tesla?) has highlighted the problem. It is OK when the number of people buying your product is about the same as the number of people ordering (net of cancellations) your products, as in Q1. It is not so good when the number of people cancelling substantially exceeds those ordering (as in Q2).
It almost makes sense to question demand the way you are questioning, but where is your imagination? You must think worst case scenario (for you) when shorting, no? So how about all the demand levers Tesla still can pull?
- AWD + Performance
- new geographical markets (US is just under 50% for S/X, smaller M3 is likely to do better in Europe, and places with less disposable income than USA)
- availability of cars to see (there are lineups now)
- availability of cars to drive
- stop anti-selling it
- organize event for 100 journalists the way all other companies do it, to get onslaught of synchronized coverage
- establish a press fleet, so there is someone borrowing car for the week every week and then writing about it.
- cars on the street - Teslas spread in every new local like a waves from the peble. The longer and more cars are present in the market more people realize EV is genuinely an option. I remember my own mindset shift in 2015 that shocked me, and I've seen it again and again.

C'mon. These are things I though on the fly and there are people in Tesla that will be in charge of developing and pulling those levers should there be a need. BMW is selling around 600K of 3 Series, Tesla should be able to do around or more than that, even thought it may not have as many different models as BMW has. And if you ask why, see what Model S has done in large luxury segment. And Tesla is a better car. I've had 3 Series 3 (including fabulous E46 M3), so I should know...
 
Given the insane-high IV, if I am in a position to buy more stock this week, I'm planning to sell deep OTM puts (maybe $550? $600?) in order to acquire stock while harvesting IV and time value. (The danger: the stock actually skyrockets past the price and I end up with the cash rather than the stock.) I don't think I have the margin capacity to do it comfortably though, so I'll have to calculate.

Considering something similar. What time frame are you thinking of selling?
 
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