TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

So has murder and rape. Doesn't make it right.

Dan

Nice straw man you have their...

 

[Todd Burch]

Shorts are trying to shake longs out.

I ain't going anywhere.

 

[Unpilot]

I suggest stopping the rabbit hole is deep with this line.

Nice straw man you have their...

I suggest stopping...the rabbit hole is deep you guys are standing next too.

 

[avoigt]

Shorts are trying to shake longs out.

I ain't going anywhere.

If thats true then the logic of the shorts escapes me. Every $ the SP goes down is one incremental reason to stay....

 

[scaesare]

Geees. what consequence does the 5k production in one week bring? I know I'd hate to be someone receiving one of those cars. And secondly, as an investor, I'm going to hate seeing/hearing about all the issues with these cars. Like the X when it was rushed into production, this batch of M3s will cost the company every penny of profit in warranty repairs (and probably more). Not to mention the hit on its quality reputation (even further).

How could Musk have been SO wrong about building 5k cars? What was the date he said they'd be at 10k per week? If they have to jump through so many hoops to hit 5k, how in the world will 10k ever be a reality?

Finally, didn't Ford make about 600,000 Mustangs in '65 or '66 (over 11k per week)? How is it that 50 years later, a supposed technology company can't even make 5k a week?

The last 2.5 to 3 years has been a struggle for Tesla. The days of beating delivery estimates, surprise profits, exciting product reveals, etc are OVER. As I predicted at the time, the MX would turn out to be a terrible mistake in the life of Tesla. I really thought it may even destroy Tesla completely (as it still is). 2 years of delays and billions of dollars spent on an SUV that can't outsell it's sister sedan in an age when EVERYBODY wants an SUV. And now the effects of that mistake are showing up in the M3. Because the MX was SO late and so many resources were dedicated to it, Tesla had to rush the M3 through R&D, rush it into production, and now rush to even be able to build the dang car. I had hoped that the production lessons on the X would make the 3 much easier to build, but obviously not.

And now we hang our hate on a pitiful success like building 5k cars in a vacuum - stealing workers from the MS/MX line, Musk sleeping in the factory, workers being paid tons of OT. When will Musk STOP worrying about the media, stop worrying about the shorts, stop worrying about the haters, and just get back to work concentrating on the simple master plan he laid out in '06? He needs to STOP with the BS timelines and projections. Yes, his words lifted the SP in the past, but not any more. People are past that and want to see results. Stop posting on twitter about burning the shorts - and just burn them. Just execute the plan, deliver, and no words or tweets will be needed.

You're adorable...

 

[bdy0627]

In my view, Tesla is likely to achieve a sustained output of 5000/wk by the end of July. This should become apparent from VIN tracking, leaks, etc, so if I'm right, we should see analysts updating their models over the next few weeks/months.

That seems a little optimistic to me, but certainly possible. Here is the history of quarterly production along with the average per week and the growth:

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Production 260 2425 9766 28578
AVG/Week 20 187 751 2198
Change 933% 403% 293%

If we drop growth down to about 200% this quarter, which follows the pattern, that would put production around 58,000 for the quarter, which is an average of 4,462 per week. Is Elon's guidance of 6,000 by the end of August a sustained rate? We surely hope so, but that has not been the pattern. His guidance has clearly been for a max weekly rate that then takes several months to sustain. This time seems like it could be different, at least to me.
I would go a little more conservative, with expectations of 5,000 sustained in September with a weekly burst of 6,000 in the very last week of August. Sustained rate of 6,000 perhaps by November?

 

[yngwie_2012]

So when is the "short burn of the century" coming according to Musk? This week?

 

[gora321]

Shorts are trying to shake longs out.

I ain't going anywhere.

I know why I'm long

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Nice straw man you have their...

Yeah, maybe.

Doesn't change the fact that they are all morally and ethically reprehensible.

 

[mongo]

That seems a little optimistic to me, but certainly possible. Here is the history of quarterly production along with the average per week and the growth:

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Production 260 2425 9766 28578
AVG/Week 20 187 751 2198
Change 933% 403% 293%

If we drop growth down to about 200% this quarter, which follows the pattern, that would put production around 58,000 for the quarter, which is an average of 4,462 per week. Is Elon's guidance of 6,000 by the end of August a sustained rate? We surely hope so, but that has not been the pattern. His guidance has clearly been for a max weekly rate that then takes several months to sustain. This time seems like it could be different, at least to me.
I would go a little more conservative, with expectations of 5,000 sustained in September with a weekly burst of 6,000 in the very last week of August. Sustained rate of 6,000 perhaps by November?

With the improvements that were being made (especially near the end of the quarter), the average is not a reliable indicator of sustainable production. GA4 did not exist until late June and it is already good for 1k/wk or so...

 

[JRP3]

X outsold S last quarter.
Per the Q2 numbers:

He never lets facts get in the way of an unhinged rant

 

[yngwie_2012]

People dont like TSLA stock

 

[jelloslug]

Shorts dont like TSLA stock

fixed it for ya.

 

[yngwie_2012]

There cant be so many shorts

 

[Dan Detweiler]

There cant be so many shorts

Shorts are institutions billions and billions of dollars. As long as they are willing to pour in money,it won't stop.

Dan

 

[jelloslug]

There cant be so many shorts

You must be new around here.

 

[YasB]

Jesse's theory is that the shorts are trying to starve Tesla of capital. At this point, they will be latching onto the following means to do this [...]

I think his theory isn't very convincing. As a short one may argue that it's not us, that is trying to starve Teslas access to the capital markets, but Tesla starved it by themselves. You simply can't announce capex of 3+ billion for 2018 with 3.3 billion liquidity on hand, when you know you need 1 billion or so in cash reserves and are not 110%, sure that you'll end the year with a full-year net profit. How is that supposed to work without further reduction of CapEx? Yes, you can reduce CapEx spending, but that slows down your future growth prospects. If your future growth prospects had already been priced in, this may reduce your stock price, which makes a capital raise more expensive, so you can raise less, which slows your future ... the point is: Reflexivity theorie works in both directions.

If you are living in the best of all times (plenty of money searching for investments, low interest rates, first to sell luxury goods in a trending EV market, automotive cycle running longer than usual, subsidised in all major markets) and your company goes broke because a single capital raise goes wrong or you can't repay a certain bond, you company was overleveraged to the teeth. In such a case it's not the fault of some shorts. If your company has a fundamentally sound business, most shorts will simply disappear, since there's no money to be made. If shorts are spreading provable lies, sue them. it may take quite some time until a decision is made, but it's a pretty strong point to make.

 

[yngwie_2012]

You must be new around here.

no im not..but this is very illogical the way stock behaves

 

[stef]

@Hogfighter where is your negativity index at today? Judging from some of the last posts we may be not far from the bottom...

 

[yngwie_2012]

I guess Elon ment "Long burn"