TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

Congrats to those who bought at this local bottom before Q2 earnings.

 

[madodel]

So if it is limited to one or a few suppliers, wouldn't it be pretty easy to ID who released this and find a replacement that can be trusted? Tesla has certainly reacted to bad suppliers quickly in the past.

 

[jhm]

I hate to be a "traitor" (temporarily), but I think in the very short term (~2 weeks), I'm going to bet against TSLA's stock price.

My reasoning is largely macro. Even though Tesla is in an excellent position starting Q3, I believe the combination of the following reasons will drive Tesla's stock price down in the near term:

1. Bad Q2 earnings report with large losses from the 5k rush + preparation for Q3 profits
2. Rocky macros from Trump vs Iran and potentially large scale tariffs with China
3. Peak FUD from shorts as this is their last attempt to drive down prices
4. Historical earnings reaction has been negative. Plus, the stock is recently driven down hard despite extremely positive news of hitting 5k/week. Therefore I believe even a Q2 surprise will still result in a drop in stock price.

To be clear to the shorts: I am bearish on Tesla's very near term stock price, but a big bull on Tesla as a company. I hope this is the only time I have to bet against Tesla's SP.

I've been warning that price will decline through the ER as well. I don't sell on it, but I do keep powder dry.

 

[Seesaw]

Back over 300!

 

[HG Wells]

We will close today above 310

 

[LoveTSLA]

Yes. Added a lot more at 296.6. My thinking is that it should be closed above 300 today.

 

[Nakata]

I hope those shorts have been gloating and selling!

 

[PaulusdB]

Congrats to those who bought at this local bottom before Q2 earnings.

You called it.

 

[Drax7]

I'd tend to agree, but if you're long on $TSLA then right now is not the time you would sell, is it, when Tesla are on the verge of turning around? I can only think that these are more short-positions being opened, I guess Ihor will inform us in due time.

As was said a few weeks ago - Tesla longs aren't selling. That's the benefit of being a cult stock.

Agree on not selling, imagine buying 5000 screens per week and not asking for a volume discount.
On the way to 10,000 screens by next year.
Same with Nvdias black box.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Naive question from a frustrated fan and investor.

It seem to be the general consensus that the Q2 report will be easily spun into more doom and gloom by the shorts. So...I assume it is relatively certain that the FUD will continue to run thick and fast at least until October when the Q3 report hopefully shows undeniable positive news. (Not that that will make a difference to the shorts.) That's a long time for the stock to tank.

I really hate this crap.

Dan

 

[Seesaw]

A lot of that doom may already be priced in

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The more pressure builds, the better. Decent production is now confirmed and demand is beyond anything this company can supply for years. Stop worrying about the FUD and just you low, sell high! Do we really need to debate and dissect a memo to one company?

 

[jhm]

So Tesla did a 5k surge production test last week and is looking forward to ramping from 5k to 10k. The results of that test likely revealed certain supplier weakness. I makes perfect sense for Tesla to use test results to leverage for better price and performance as Tesla prepares to double their orders. Supplies must compete with each other and with Tesla's insourcing capacity if they want a bigger share of future orders. This all seems quite healthy to me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Right there with ya. It's gotten to the point where I can't watch anymore. Any time lies and dishonesty have this much effect it just turns my stomach and my blood pressure goes through the roof. Time to start another really good book series that I can't put down. Maybe go through the Outlander series again. 9 books...average about 1200 pages each. That should take me a few months and then I'll look at the TSLA stock again.

Dan

Did you read Iain M Banks yet? As one of Elon's favorites, would be apt.

 

[Big Earl]

Added a few more shares sub-$300 this morning. It’s a wild ride, for sure.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The more pressure builds, the better. Decent production is now confirmed and demand is beyond anything this company can supply for years. Stop worrying about the FUD and just you low, sell high! Do we really need to debate and dissect a memo to one company?

My concern isn't with one memo to one company but the apparent trend for the stock to reflect ANYTHING negative and it's reluctance to recognize anything positive.

San

 

[winfield100]

Did you read Iain M Banks yet? As one of Elon's favorites, would be apt.

have read 7 of the 10. fairly decent EssEff. The Culture (series) - Wikipedia
(edit)
here is a hard link to find, but more explanations
A Few Notes on the Culture, by Iain M Banks

 

[CaliBear1]

Did you read Iain M Banks yet? As one of Elon's favorites, would be apt.

I'm just finishing "Consider Plebas." Great read! I enjoyed it so much I decided to see if the movie rights have been acquired. Even better, Amazon has acquired the rights for a proposed blockbuster (what an ironic use of that word!) series! It's undergoing script treatment right now!

Sorry for the off topic post. Just trying to save a frustrated contributor to this thread!

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm just finishing "Consider Plebas." Great read! I enjoyed it so much I decided to see if the movie rights have been acquired. Even better, Amazon has acquired the rights for a proposed blockbuster (what an ironic use of that word!) series! It's undergoing script treatment right now!

Sorry for the off topic post. Just trying to save a frustrated contributor to this thread!

Highly recommend, working your way through the Culture Series. In many way, Phlebas is the one I like the most, but many will say Use of Weapons is the best, or Excession.

And yes, the movie-rights were acquired quite a long time ago, but nothing happened as of yet...

 

[madodel]

My concern isn't with one memo to one company but the apparent trend for the stock to reflect ANYTHING negative and it's reluctance to recognize anything positive.

San

How long have you been investing? I've watched this same thing with AAPL for decades. Seriously if the blatant manipulation by outright lying bothers you you probably shouldn't be invested in TSLA.