TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Someone on this forum recently made the hypothesis that he could lie on the numbers to hype bulls and write calls... is this possible?

He certainly could. No way of knowing if he does unless we get an independent leak source.

 

[neroden]

"Under our arrangement with Panasonic, we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment at negotiated prices. As these terms convey to us the right to use, as defined in ASC 840, Leases, their production equipment, we consider them to be leased assets when production commences. This results in us recording the cost of their production equipment within property, plant and equipment, net, on the consolidated balance sheets with a corresponding liability recorded to financing obligations. For all suppliers and partners for which we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment located at Gigafactory 1, we have applied similar accounting. As of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, we had cumulatively capitalized costs of $576.4 million and $473.3 million, respectively, on the consolidated balance sheets in relation to the production equipment under our Panasonic arrangement"​

Boy, GAAP is stupid. I look forward to the change in lease accounting in 2019.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Not a very interesting article and adds nothing new to the discussion so not worth clicking: Tesla Must Raise Billions in Cash If Elon Musk Still Wants to Make Cars

But what caught my eye was this:

Tesla'd, Defined

• Tesla'd is TheStreet's newest weekly column, focused on one of the most volatile -- and polarizing -- stocks on the planet in Tesla. Each week, the column will take a sharp look at Tesla so investors have the full story on the electric car maker.

This seems desperate? A weekly column focused on a single company? I'm sorry, I don't follow stock markets and financial press too much (at all), is that a normal thing? Are there weekly columns on Apple, Amazon, Netflix, FB, GM, Ford, etc? No doubt what the content of that column is gonna be like...

Tesla is more fun than those other stocks.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I thought boats and planes held their values better than cars.

You thought right.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I'm making perfectly clear points to anyone who has been to business school or has equivalent work experience in accounting and finance. This is basic stuff. If you don't understand my point it is due to your lack of knowledge.

Tesla reported the capital lease for Panasonic's equipment in their form 10-K for 2015.

Panasonic has agreed to partner with us on the Gigafactory with investments in production equipment that it will use to manufacture and supply us with battery cells. Under our arrangement with Panasonic, we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment at negotiated prices. As these terms convey a right to use the production related assets as defined within ASC 840 – Leases, we will consider these leased assets beginning with the start of cell production in 2016.

What this does, effectively, is put Panasonic in front of non-secured lenders for claims on the machinery that makes battery cells. It's an investment because a capital lease is recorded as an asset.

Partnership is with a small "p". The gigafactory would be a separate corporation if it was co-owned by Tesla and Panasonic. I doubt corporations can even register a Limited Partnership in Nevada. AFAIK those only apply to individuals.

The accounting convention considering them leased is not what gives Panasonic preference with regard to those assets. Its Panasonic's legal title to the assets.

 

[sundaymorning]

Jul 27:

Model 3: 690
Model S: 150
Model X: 150

4,830/wk rate for Friday.

skabooshka on Twitter

Just to clarify, this mean s6,930 a we3k SX3 a week and 4,830 M3s per week.

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes maker Daimler's profit slips 30 per cent

Bottlenecks on Mercedes emissions certification to put a dent on profits.

Daimler halts truck engine deliveries on emissions concerns

'Dieselgate 2' allegations target European car makers

Stuttgart, home of Mercedes and Porsche, becomes second city in Germany to ban old diesel cars

Wow: Mercedes dieselgate coming to the US near you soon!

Daimler faces growing risk of VW-style Dieselgate disaster in US

 

[sundaymorning]

BMW massive recall due to its combustion engines spontaneously catching on fire.

BMW in Massive Recall Over Combustible Engines

BMW blamed the exhaust gas recirculation module for the spontaneous fires and has decided to recall all cars with the module

BMW Korea to voluntarily recall 42 models after engine fires

Jacksonville woman wants answers after her BMW catches fire while parked in driveway

"I came home, sat down, ate my lunch went to the trash can, turned around and I could see flames coming from my driveway."

 

[sundaymorning]

Ohio man's Audi catches fire and explodes day before he says he was notified about crucial recall

Audi A8 Recalled Over Fire Risk

Audi takes heat for dismissive handling of 'burning car' claims

“Audi a very expensive coffin”

Audi keeps having to put out fires on social media

WATCH: KZN driver warns owners after luxury Q3 SUV catches fire - Audi SA responds

 

[ZachShahan]

Tesla Model 3 Sales vs Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales (USA) — Tesla Now Crushing The Competition? | CleanTechnica

Thanks

These are more and more fun to create.

Also fun to see Tesla pass up automakers like Porsche and Jaguar in terms of overall production.

Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production | CleanTechnica

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica

Curious for Tesla's official numbers on July. Will likely be doing updates of these pieces in a week or so. But I'm hopeful that my July estimates are solid.

From the bottom of the article you linked, these were some big takeaway thoughts for me that I think are particularly relevant to this sub:

Looking at these numbers and charts made me think, “This is why the shorts are freaking out.” For one, once these comparisons start getting out into the mainstream media, the whole narrative around Tesla could shift. The media could transition back to glowing pieces about the wonders of Tesla and the genius of Elon Musk (instead of the tabloid-like nonsense and misleading financial hit pieces we’ve been seeing). In any case, it’s going to get clear very soon that there’s a disruptor in town. What happens if this disruption gets out of control? What happens when the media catches on? What happens when the public catches on? What happens when more players in the financial markets catch on? The shorts will lose a lot of money, and Big Oil and Big Auto will be in for a rocky ride.
​

Seriously — how many days until mass media outlets start noticing and acknowledging that Model 3 sales CRUSH sales of all the other vehicles in its class? (I'd love to hear people's thoughts on that here, since it's a weird wildcard but could really shift the public atmosphere around the company.)

 

[sundaymorning]

Thanks

These are more and more fun to create.

Also fun to see Tesla pass up automakers like Porsche and Jaguar in terms of overall production.

Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production | CleanTechnica

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica

Curious for Tesla's official numbers on July. Will likely be doing updates of these pieces in a week or so. But I'm hopeful that my July estimates are solid.

From the bottom of the article you linked, these were some big takeaway thoughts for me that I think are particularly relevant to this sub:

Looking at these numbers and charts made me think, “This is why the shorts are freaking out.” For one, once these comparisons start getting out into the mainstream media, the whole narrative around Tesla could shift. The media could transition back to glowing pieces about the wonders of Tesla and the genius of Elon Musk (instead of the tabloid-like nonsense and misleading financial hit pieces we’ve been seeing). In any case, it’s going to get clear very soon that there’s a disruptor in town. What happens if this disruption gets out of control? What happens when the media catches on? What happens when the public catches on? What happens when more players in the financial markets catch on? The shorts will lose a lot of money, and Big Oil and Big Auto will be in for a rocky ride.
​

Seriously — how many days until mass media outlets start noticing and acknowledging that Model 3 sales CRUSH sales of all the other vehicles in its class? (I'd love to hear people's thoughts on that here, since it's a weird wildcard but could really shift the public atmosphere around the company.)

My guess is when Tesla is cash flow positive and producing 8k Model 3 a week, the chatter should start after Q4 and strengthen in Q1, 2019.

 

[Tslynk67]

Order of Iain M. Banks Books - OrderOfBooks.com
these seem to be available at Amazon - new and used
Am I missing something here?

Not sure Amazon deliver north of the Arctic circle...

I have a few first edition hard-backs, since I had the financial comfort to but such things, the rest are in paper-back:

Inversions is a Culture novel, but only very subtly so. Don’t forget the collection of short stories, State of the Art, and then the underrated Transition, which was published outside the US under his non-genre writing name Iain Banks.

 

[avoigt]

Thanks

These are more and more fun to create.

Also fun to see Tesla pass up automakers like Porsche and Jaguar in terms of overall production.

Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production | CleanTechnica

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica

Curious for Tesla's official numbers on July. Will likely be doing updates of these pieces in a week or so. But I'm hopeful that my July estimates are solid.

From the bottom of the article you linked, these were some big takeaway thoughts for me that I think are particularly relevant to this sub:

Looking at these numbers and charts made me think, “This is why the shorts are freaking out.” For one, once these comparisons start getting out into the mainstream media, the whole narrative around Tesla could shift. The media could transition back to glowing pieces about the wonders of Tesla and the genius of Elon Musk (instead of the tabloid-like nonsense and misleading financial hit pieces we’ve been seeing). In any case, it’s going to get clear very soon that there’s a disruptor in town. What happens if this disruption gets out of control? What happens when the media catches on? What happens when the public catches on? What happens when more players in the financial markets catch on? The shorts will lose a lot of money, and Big Oil and Big Auto will be in for a rocky ride.
​

Seriously — how many days until mass media outlets start noticing and acknowledging that Model 3 sales CRUSH sales of all the other vehicles in its class? (I'd love to hear people's thoughts on that here, since it's a weird wildcard but could really shift the public atmosphere around the company.)

Thanks Zach, great Article! Love the graphs....

What for informed investors like most here is very easy to see is for the average Joe out there mislead by headlines, hard to find and understand. A lot of people just reading headlines and maybe one or two sentences and thats it. Also every analyst and media reporter often starts with the negative and you have to search for the important information somewhere deep in the recording. People do not have time and tend to fly over it instead of questioning statements and trying to understand the reality moving closer to truth. Thats why this board is so important and helpful.

Having said that I believe it will take longer to see the shift of the public atmosphere than we all want to.

However with every week passing by the undisputed fact of production rates above 5k/w will sink in. Needless to say that the shorts will make a next case. Still right now its not popular to report in a positive manner.

Personally I do not believe that the fud about Tesla as a company and Elon will end. But with growing production, profitability and CFP first the stock price will develop positively as market makers will get in and shorts out and after the market will shift to a more balanced view and reporting.

Everybody experiencing the cars will develop into a fan of the products and company. People with no exposure will stay negative and look for FUD to repeat and spell out.

Its like society here, a strong polarization of where we as a nation or country should and will develop into.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Sure:
NASDAQ | SEC Filing

Tesla owns the land and building and leases to Panasonic. Any other arrangement would be insane from Panasonic's perspective.

You are intentionally responding to the wrong part of the request because there is nothing to back up your claim.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Safe to say that the FUD is going to run thick and heavy for the next three days going into the earnings call Wednesday? Yeah, pretty much a guarantee I think. It will be interesting to see how the market responds. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail, but....why should they start now, right?
Dan

 

[Chickenlittle]

I've got some mid-September call options that I'm not sure what to do with. They're pretty deep in the money, bought $220 options back when the stock was...oh, about $300 several months ago. I'm basically break even right now since the time cost on DITM options is pretty small. At the time, I figured it wasn't likely to drop much more, but the upside was good. I'm not sure that thinking holds leading into the earnings report and there's little time for recovery before the due date if things go south.

Everyone is saying the numbers will be horrendous, but then again maybe that's already priced in? I'm thinking of dumpi

 

[Chickenlittle]

I love betting against what “everyone knows”

 

[defc0n]

This appears to be getting uglier: Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter

Wonder if their strategy is to just get a quick settlement from Tesla to shut them up? Something to be mindful of this week, anyway.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yeah, they're asking SUPER dumb questions. What I want to hear is:
"What are the bottlenecks preventing increased Solar Roof deliveries? Is the product being redesigned, is it manufacturing, what?"
"Powerwall and Powerpack backlog is huge. What is preventing you from increasing deliveries?"
"Do you have some more clarity on what you need to do to get to 10,000 Model 3/week?"
"Are you going to fix the media player for USB playback? Bugs have been reported for 5 years without fixes."
"How are you addressing service center backlogs for parts and labor?"
"What happened to the Supercharger in Bethany, MO?"
"When will we be able to drive a Tesla to North Dakota using Superchargers?"


I wouldn't even invite them.

This is a great list of questions. Battery production is a topic that needs more clarity.

 

[TheMrX]

This appears to be getting uglier: Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter

Wonder if their strategy is to just get a quick settlement from Tesla to shut them up? Something to be mindful of this week, anyway.

Twitter user Nafnlaus seems to have pretty good responses on this twitter discussion. We could help by giving it some love.