sundaymorning
Active Member
Demand might also be stemming from Powerwall.
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Demand might also be stemming from Powerwall.
Anyone a native speaker to go to the source? It maken a big difference if Panasonic is already at 35GWh/Year and this is on top of that. Or that Tesla is at 5000/week and now Panasonic needs to catch up.
Thought this was a nice use of data to disprove bear FUD
ZachShahan
Active Member
What if they're already at 6k/wk? We don't know where exactly they are on production currently.
If they are currently at 6k/wk, increasing the production by 30% and then phasing in the SR (dropping the average from around 80 kWh to around 70 kWh per vehicle), would allow the production of 6k x 1.3 x 8/7 = 8900 Model 3 per week.
I'm not saying the above is the case, but we don't know enough about where they currently are to say whether a 30% increase is too little. One thing I'm sure of is that current production is not exactly 4416 x 5000 = 22,080,000 cells per week. It's either above that or below that, and my guess is above.
They're definitely not at 35 GWh/year currently. In my estimation they're at 19-25 GWh/year for Model 3 (5-6k/wk) and 1-2 GWh/year for TE. So 20-27 GWh/year currently.
If they were to be at 35 GWh/year currently, TE would need to be delivering several GWh per quarter, or cells would be piling up at the Gigafactory.
I did not want to derail papafox's thread. So I am posting the google cache of the mysteriously deleted blog post from Orbital Insights here.
Don’t Panic About the Thousands of Teslas Parked in a California Field
In addition to my earlier post, this is more evidence that bears are clutching at straw
(* waves at silent $TSLAQ bears who took a screenshot of my last post & pasted it on twitter
*)
sundaymorning
Active Member
To me 7k Model 3 a week by end of 2018 is a win. It’ll mean improved efficiencies. Better to focus on quality and deliveries before we ramp up to 10k.
I do not have an access to the original article (Japanese) but could locate a SNS post which seemed an exact copy of the original. According to it, They will increase the capacity to 35GWh by adding 3 more lines which is more efficient than the current 10 lines.
Interesting. Reaching 35 GWh/year with a 30% increase suggests they are currently at around 27 GWh/year. That suggests they are currently close to 6k/wk, not 5k/wk.
Was there ever a time they did not?
Will there ever be a time they will not?
No and no.
Stop obsessing on those idiots, start the buy back program.
Tesla should reach out to Carl Icahn and get him to invest in an equity stake. He frequently beats down on shorts in a heavily shorted and feared stock. Look at NFLX and Herbalife. He could do wonders with Elon. A coordinated dance to wreck Chanos.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Carl Icahn has a long history of kicking out the board, taking over the company and focusing on turning a short-term profit. Maybe he’d act more like a passive investor/supporter here as it appears he did with NFLX but most of the time he’s not exactly a white knight IMO.
Key take away for me was that Panasonic converted Tesla Energy cell line(s) to the vehicle chemistry to hit the needed production rate. The three new lines will allow high vehicle production along with PW and PP.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
If Panasonic had to switch production around just to meet a singular 5k week that’s concerning. I had hoped they would be further ahead especially with Tesla management confidently predicting both a significant Tesla energy ramp and a robust path beyond 5k/week in second half 2018. We risk seeing neither by the end of the year.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
"No end in sight for Elon Musk's 'production hell'. More missed targets foreseen. Everyone is sad. Everyone. Very sad!"
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