TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sub]

Trading resuming at 3:45pm eastern

 

[KarenRei]

So, market opening at 3:45. Dang it... :Þ

Come on, shorts... keep up your everlasting skepticism!

 

[bro1999]

TSLA trading to resume at 3:45.
Hold onto your butts!

 

[jelloslug]

Trading resuming at 3:45pm eastern

 

[MrDoor]

$600 by end of week

 

[bro1999]

Interesting that no further details on the "secured funding" in the letter.

 

[Mkorpal]

Trading resuming at 3:45pm eastern

So, this is going to be fun to watch. I'm glad I canceled all my standing orders.

 

[EVGhost3]

Elon:

Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

 

[TradingInvest]

Shorts are lucky Elon didn't offer to buy at $550. They could lose a lot more. I imagine most shareholders will stay in, actually because so many will keep buying, it may end up the real money that's need to take the company private is just a few thousand dollars, because all the shares are claimed by investors who want to stay in. It's a possible scenario.

Again, since all shareholders are allowed to stay in, this deal will pass for sure. So down side is $420. Upside who knows? I don't remember this kind of event ever happened in the past.

 

[ruralectric]

What is the typical collateral for stock lending programs?

The collateral is adjusted daily, sometime after market close, and at least the daily closing price x number of loaned shares.

 

[WarpedOne]

Shameless plug - WarpedOne, May 15, 2018:

WAG: tesla will use future profits to buy back shares. If not tesla, Elon will.

Future Tesla is a private company.

 

[trix]

buy buy buy!

 

[hobbes]

So I get the part about selling at 420... fair enough. But what does "going private" mean for me as a retail investor if I stay "in"? Can I sell at any point i decide after they went private? If so, at what price?

From the blog post:

However, the structure envisioned for Tesla is similar in many ways to the SpaceX structure: external shareholders and employee shareholders have an opportunity to sell or buy approximately every six months.

Also very interesting for the long term:

This is not to say that it will make sense for Tesla to be private over the long-term. In the future, once Tesla enters a phase of slower, more predictable growth, it will likely make sense to return to the public markets.

So IMHO for the long term investor, if you skip the next 10 years, you´ll wake up to tesla being public again at a much higher price.

In the mid term, everything will be much slower, no shorting, no wild swings - maybe boring, maybe relaxing, however you see it.

In the short term - I got no f** idea!! Just stay long and wait I guess, happy I am not into calls right now.

 

[Jayjs20]

Going private would take away all the fun.

P.S. Would hate to be short right now. Call sellers must be having a good day, as long as strike is $420 or less.

Former J20 400 call option owner here. Today was not a good day.

So, uhm, I hold a bunch of $475 Jan19 calls. How screwed am I?

(And do we even have all the necessary info to evaluate how screwed I am?)

I panic and bailed, but if you're lucky, when the market reopens, if the price skyrockets due to squeeze, you'll still be able to make profit off of it.

 

[Mkorpal]

Interesting that no further details on the "secured funding" in the letter.

Same. Elon stated he doesn't intend to further his ownership, so someone else is coming in with the cash to buy up the shares that are sold.

 

[ggies07]

TSLA trading to resume at 3:45.
Hold onto your butts!

 

[Johan]

Did I miss anything important in the last year?

Long and strong is still the best game in town, amirite?

I will personally try to hold the majority of my shares in the private company but it will be super interesting to see how high the stock could peak now that all those short the stock will have to run for the exit. With the short interest so high, what Elon just tweeted seems to me akin to "yelling fire in a crowded theater" where there's only one exit... And the exit isn't particularly wide.

Has something like this ever occurred historically, i.e. a private buy-out offer of a public company with such a high short interest?

Also, what are the latest estimates of the degree of naked short selling of the stock? I know naked short selling in principle of disallowed but surely there are many work arounds that can be, and are being used, to accomplish this?

 

[jhm]

To those saying "I hope this kills the shorts!"

It won't... There will be a lot of people willing to sell us a share at $425.

Elon just capped short losses.

The option to shareholders is $420 or private shares. If private shares are valued more highly than private shares, we could see the public share price go well above $420. And why would private shares be worth more than public? Because shorts won't be screwing with the private ones. So shorts will have to offer prices high enough to convince shareholders to give up 34M options on private shares. Good luck.

Mod edit: Second sentence should read “....private...more than public...”

 

[SGordB]

Didn’t even think about that. I want to stay invested in Tesla. Are you sure about this?

I have a similar concern. I don't know of any way for Canadians to buy U.S. mutual funds (like the Fidelity SpaceX fund?), so the question is: will this fund Musk tweets about be open to "foreign" investors?

 

[schonelucht]

Shouldn’t have sold majority of my position just after earnings. Still, $420 is a nice position to exit. I won’t follow all of you when it goes private. Good luck!