TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[kangarookid]

I think new shorts are entering the market right now (actually i know this is the case but not sure of the scale).. Some investors believe that $420 is the cap so the losses will be minimal but they can win if the deal falls through. I think that's why we're not seeing more of a squeeze without more details coming through.

That being said, I still think we can blow way past $420 as this develops. No one knows the full story yet. Have to believe there's much more to be revealed over the coming days and weeks.

 

[Boomer19]

Most of what I have seen:
“Does Musk have the funding”
“who are these funders, we can’t find them”
“He said funding secured, but what does that mean”
“The board came out with a note, but we don’t know what that means”
“Musk should not be tweeting”
“Could this be fraud”
“No one really believes this”
I think all of this falls under the U and D of FUD.
Very little actual analysis being done, and absolutely no patience for the actual details to come.

all wall st talking. he shut the door on them and this is his big FU. their only retaliation is to portray the whole thing as a possible fraud and keep the public focused on the fear aspect, instead of on what elon has been telling us now for months, while they jockey their positions to mitigate losses at our expense.

 

[TradingInvest]

Good article and none of you guys can actually defend EM on this:
Elon Musk Has Some Fun With Tesla

I read the article and added the author Matt Levine to my bucket labeled as "idiot/jerk/paid basher/Tesla short". I don't have time to further differentiate which sub category he should go. Next time I won't waste time on his stuff.

 

[tivoboy]

The fact all the "pundits" keep saying 70B is an example of why EM wants to go private.
The "facts" are never correct when it comes to what the analysts say.

The 70B number used yesterday was just a simple shares outstanding (there is only one class) times the 420$.. 71B.
that doesn't include the >10Billion in debt, from Tesla and Solar City.

So, we're at at LEAST 80B to "take private".

As I've said since early yesterday, they don't need anywhere near that and between Musk, employees and the top five major investment grade shareholders they can probably get to 50% to covert. So, they would probably need 40-50B. (yesterday I put it at 20-30B, but I think they would need a lot more debt. They probably won't be able to roll the current debt, so it has to get paid. then they need NEW debt - operations are $$ and it will be more costly)

They do have some odd covenants in their shareholder rights and company bi-laws that require a 66.7% majority for any action or vote of this nature. So, I think they'd have to get above that threshold from the common shareholders to approve. Sounds simple, sometimes isn't as simple as it sounds.

Lining up 40-50B is still pretty darn hard.

 

[Tslynk67]

According to my advanced technical-analysis, we close around 378.75... not an advice...

 

[mongo]

Is there any way people see of avoiding short term capitol gains tax for investments today if the company goes private in less than a year? We would have to essentially sell our shares even if we chose to convert to private right?

I'm attempting to offset by buying more shares and using the proceeds from their conversion (and/or extortion of shorts) to cover tax liabilities...

Not an advice

 

[Fact Checking]

Very little actual analysis being done, and absolutely no patience for the actual details to come.

Yeah, many of them are under the weird impression that Tesla has a fiduciary duty to keep shorts informed.

In reality Tesla has the fiduciary duty to help Tesla shareholders as much as possible, and as a direct consequence of that Tesla has the fiduciary duty to screw up the lives of shorts as much as possible. A concept fully encouraged by the SEC as well!

 

[Tslynk67]

Is there any way people see of avoiding short term capitol gains tax for investments today if the company goes private in less than a year? We would have to essentially sell our shares even if we chose to convert to private right?

No capital-gains tax on share sales in Belgium

It's about the only break we get - income tax runs around 55% for most people...

 

[Bobbyducati]

as someone who trades tsla just about everyday, holding on to my shares and waiting for this whole deal to be over is going to be torture.

 

[jelloslug]

I tried to set the sell price for my shares this morning at $3000 to lock them up from lending and was rejected by the broker saying that the price is too high based on current market conditions. I was able to set the price at $2500. Any ideas how the brokers calculate what is an acceptable price and what is not? Is that standard?

Dart board.

 

[tivoboy]

Is there any way people see of avoiding short term capitol gains tax for investments today if the company goes private in less than a year? We would have to essentially sell our shares even if we chose to convert to private right?

you could book some other short term losses for the moment, re-buy those shares after 30 days if you like the company still.

But, frankly, I don't see this happening this year (if at all) so taking action in the short term when/if you would realize a short term gain and trying to do something about it now could be fruitless and a waste of effort/$$.

I'll add that I've had other public company's go private and do a share conversion and it wasn't a taxable event. I've had others covert where there is a cash component and that WAS taxable but not the converted value.

 

[neroden]

What about the risk that the deal gets delayed (for a long time) by some lawsuit ?

Honestly, this deal is going to take a long time either way. What risk?

 

[Drumheller]

In case of a short squeeze, at what price are you setting your sell limit order?

 

[neroden]

Good article and none of you guys can actually defend EM on this:
Elon Musk Has Some Fun With Tesla

Um, yes, it's a good article and he's totally positive about the deal? I already quoted this in the "Fact or Fiction" thread.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lower than yours, by 0.01c

 

[TradingInvest]

The 70B number used yesterday was just a simple shares outstanding (there is only one class) times the 420$.. 71B.
that doesn't include the >10Billion in debt, from Tesla and Solar City.

So, we're at at LEAST 80B to "take private".

As I've said since early yesterday, they don't need anywhere near that and between Musk, employees and the top five major investment grade shareholders they can probably get to 50% to covert. So, they would probably need 40-50B. (yesterday I put it at 20-30B, but I think they would need a lot more debt. They probably won't be able to roll the current debt, so it has to get paid. then they need NEW debt - operations are $$ and it will be more costly)

Lining up 40-50B is still pretty darn hard.

Not only all large shareholders are likely to stay invested, many of them might substantially increase. They are not dumb. Among retail investors, all my friends and myself will stay in.

Currently 120% of total shares are held by longs.
My estimate: Elon's 20% will stay in. For the remaining 100%, 70% will stay in, 30% will sell. So overall we are looking at 90% will stay in, 10% will sell. But among the 90% who will stay in, some will buy more shares, on top of that, some large entities might have been looking for opportunities to get in. This is their last chance. I bet in the end the buyout cost will be near zero.

I want to add a friendly warning to myself and newer investors, don't overly leverage and get hurt in case something goes wrong temporarily. I have seen sure things fail in the past.

 

[bluetrue]

Can someone explain to me why the buyout price can't go below $420? If a group of existing investors that has >50% of the existing shares wants to take the company private, can't they force the remaining investors to sell their shares at whatever prices the buyout group wants? Can't they just make a buyout proposal at whatever price they want and since they have >50% of the existing shares, they can vote their own proposal in? What stops that? Are there rules against it?

 

[neroden]

Is there any way people see of avoiding short term capitol gains tax for investments today if the company goes private in less than a year? We would have to essentially sell our shares even if we chose to convert to private right?

Yes, I'm expecting it to be a fully taxable event, unfortunately. We could get lucky if it's structured the right way but usually "choice of cash or stock" offers are treated as a taxable event even if you keep the stock.

 

[oneday]

Not only all large shareholders are likely to stay invested, many of them might substantially increase. They are not dumb. Among retail investors, all my friends and myself will stay in.

There are currently 120% of total shares are held by longs.
My estimate: Elon's 20% will stay in. For the remaining 100%, 70% will stay in, 30% will sell. So overall we are looking at 90% will stay in, 10% will sell. But among the 70% who will stay in, some will buy more shares, on top of that, some large entities might have been looking for an opportunities to get in. This is their last chance. I bet in the end the buy out cost will be near zero.

I’m staying in, my only concern is in regards to liquidity, I’m young and have a new business. I will most likely stay in 100% and if I need liquidity, take the hit and borrow against it. I will need to ask my bank what kind of ability I will have to borrow against my future private shares will be if the need does arise.

 

[Tslynk67]

Woah, that was a big and sudden drop, $3 in one shot...