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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Joe Terranova 30 sec ago on CNBC (transcript is paraphrased):

Today I bought $15k-worth Aug $365 calls. I believe there are questions about Musk's tweet veracity. He said "funding secured". He has 4 days to clarify it.

Q: Are you making a trade or a statement?

I'm making a statement. This can be resolved very easily in the Valley. His billionaire peers should be calling him right now to tell him "we support you in this, we're in". The market is now calling Musk's bluff. He has four days to file an 8-K. He has four days!

Q: Are you positioning yourself to join a class-action lawsuit?

Yes. I think he [Musk] is an untruthful individual.

This untruthful narrative has been spreading since around $40.

I believe it began with the auto dealerships. Maybe their manufacturer, I don't know. But I remwmber clearly at the beginning when I was still actively spreading the gospel of Tesla, mechanics for other auto makers will repeat this same argument to me. Whereas no one else in other sectors did that.
 
Yes.

I mean I think shorting stock is immoral, but lending shares to shorts to sell right now, that's freakin' evil :eek:
That’s what I thought. Good for me that this price is dropping because I am loading up on shares because I want to make sure I have something just in case my IRA shares are converted. Edward Jones has told me that my IRA with them can not hold private shares.
 
The SP action, very sadly,slowly points to a $420 buy out. My logic is: $420 offer is 100% real barring special situation. The going private is not a question, only the price is
As more experienced people pointed out, this will take a long time to go through, which means we'll see Q3 results and maybe Q4. So, today's price won't mean much as far as final buyout price. Therefore, going private is still a question.
 
Do we know that the board "approved" the deal, or did they approve to discussing and pursuing a possible deal?

Thanks, my bad. The approval needs to be formalized with a majority vote among shareholders "...the way I expect it will." to quote the announcement. Patiently waiting for my ballot in the mail as I also "expect it" anyday.
 
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~700k shares shorted this morning
34.7m vs 34m yesterday

I think the "34.0 million TSLA short" tweet from Ihor Dusaniwsky yesterday was an error.

His updated graph today has the following numbers:

  • 2018/08/06: 35.4m
  • 2018/08/07: 35.1m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/08: 34.8m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/09: 34.7m -0.1m
I.e. a steady decline in short interest since Elon's tweet, with some slowing of covering action this morning. No net increase in short interest on any of the days this week. Note that his graph is also broadly consistent with the IB 'shortable shares' database, which isn't showing a lack of shortable shares.

If we trust the S3 Partners data then the significant downwards price action is thus most likely NOT the effect of short sellers, but of other parties:
  • either large market maker in the options market de-risking excess (millions of!) shares aggressively.
  • or a large market maker in the options market trying to engineer the 'maximum options pain' price point for tomorrow,
  • or an institutional investor or some other party reducing TSLA shares aggressively,
  • or a combination thereof,
  • or none of the the above.
Today was again that "weird" price action with aggressive pressure-selling orders that seemed to be designed to mark the price down. It cannot be accumulation of shares I believe, because such mark-down costs 1-2 million shares per day with no net accumulation effect possible.

Just this minute a couple of well placed 40k-50k sales pushed the price close to $350.

Any guesses? I'm still puzzled by this price action. I'm also puzzled why no big player appears to be accumulating yet. It's a $70 guaranteed premium now.

Do the CNBC FUDsters have the ability to lock all brain capacity on Wall Street?
 
I think the "34.0 million TSLA short" tweet from Ihor Dusaniwsky yesterday was an error.

His updated graph today has the following numbers:

  • 2018/08/06: 35.4m
  • 2018/08/07: 35.1m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/08: 34.8m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/09: 34.7m -0.1m
I.e. a steady decline in short interest since Elon's tweet, with some slowing of covering action this morning. No net increase in short interest on any of the days this week. Note that his graph is also broadly consistent with the IB 'shortable shares' database, which isn't showing a lack of shortable shares.

If we trust the S3 Partners data then the significant downwards price action is thus most likely NOT the effect of short sellers, but of other parties:
  • either large market maker in the options market de-risking excess (millions of!) shares aggressively.
  • or a large market maker in the options market trying to engineer the 'maximum options pain' price point for tomorrow,
  • or an institutional investor or some other party reducing TSLA shares aggressively,
  • or a combination thereof,
  • or none of the the above.
Today was again that "weird" price action with aggressive pressure-selling orders that seemed to be designed to mark the price down. It cannot be accumulation of shares I believe, because such mark-down costs 1-2 million shares per day with no net accumulation effect possible.

Any guesses? I'm still puzzled about this price action.

Shorts getting out selling to shorts getting in?
While there has been heavy volume, the price seems to be moving less that normal.

Edit: just checked, it is down a bit, but Tuesday's up movement was curtailed also so low volume in higher positions?
 
Let me help you out. Elon is a super genius. He thinks in N^N dimensions while we mortals struggle with 1 dimensional, inside the box thinking. While he was typing the first sentence, his mind wandered on to his backyard project of his, I dunno, 7th mansion may be. He meant his backyard landscaping project had its "funding secured". So the two sentences are actually unrelated.o_O
Worst case scenario: Elon claims insanity of super human intelligence and gets out scot-free.:)


What happens to the many banks and traders selling cover calls? What happens to the shares held by market makers? The swing traders? All those shares will be dumped.
A big part of Tesla value is its use as a gambling token. Once that value is taken out, the token will be worth much less..
People may get peace,but with such high capital infusion needs and few buyers, Tesla will not survive for long.

If you think the options holders have a say in corporate decisions, you are in for a rude awakening.
 
Shorts getting out selling to shorts getting in?

The "pressure-selling" price action around key resistance levels has the 'fingerprint' of a single large player (using a trading terminal manually - not algo trading), to me at least. Only the minimal amount of volume is used to punch through the book at those levels with market orders - and limit orders are used to soak up most of the pullbacks.

Edit:

In particular a lot of NASDAQ-correlation liquidity is used up: up-legs in NASDAQ are frequently suppressed via what look like large limit orders, while down-legs are left free reign.
 
Was this posted yesterday? Some credence to the idea that this plan has been in the making for a little while.

Tesla's New Chief Accounting Officer was at Seagate When they went Private - 1redDrop

Other credence:

Musk has talked about it previously (for a long time). Quote from Business Insider of all places for a fairly fresh one: "Musk has clearly been thinking about a deal since at least 2017, when he told Rolling Stone's Neil Strauss that Tesla would be in a better position as a private company."

Bloomberg reports that Elon approached SoftBank about it.

Musk is sick of the *sugar* and finds it much easier to manage SpaceX.
 
The idiots who are claiming that Musk is lying (he doesn't do that, guys) and selling the stock as if the buyout is nonexistent (oh, it's real) are confirming Musk's reasons to go private.

The downside of this is that it is going to make Musk even more determined to go private, *even if* securities law means he has to squeeze out the small investors. This sucks for small investors. He'll try to let us all stay in, but *he won't try too hard*, because he is going to be hellbent on getting off the stock market.

I really hope he just decides to delist the company without actually going "full private" (which would require cutting down to fewer than 2000 stockholders, etc.)

I hope he's focused on SpaceX this week.

The FUD might make his head explode.
 
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I think the "34.0 million TSLA short" tweet from Ihor Dusaniwsky yesterday was an error.

His updated graph today has the following numbers:

  • 2018/08/06: 35.4m
  • 2018/08/07: 35.1m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/08: 34.8m -0.3m
  • 2018/08/09: 34.7m -0.1m
I.e. a steady decline in short interest since Elon's tweet, with some slowing of covering action this morning. No net increase in short interest on any of the days this week. Note that his graph is also broadly consistent with the IB 'shortable shares' database, which isn't showing a lack of shortable shares.

If we trust the S3 Partners data then the significant downwards price action is thus most likely NOT the effect of short sellers, but of other parties:
  • either large market maker in the options market de-risking excess (millions of!) shares aggressively.
  • or a large market maker in the options market trying to engineer the 'maximum options pain' price point for tomorrow,
  • or an institutional investor or some other party reducing TSLA shares aggressively,
  • or a combination thereof,
  • or none of the the above.
Today was again that "weird" price action with aggressive pressure-selling orders that seemed to be designed to mark the price down. It cannot be accumulation of shares I believe, because such mark-down costs 1-2 million shares per day with no net accumulation effect possible.

Just this minute a couple of well placed 40k-50k sales pushed the price close to $350.

Any guesses? I'm still puzzled by this price action. I'm also puzzled why no big player appears to be accumulating yet. It's a $70 guaranteed premium now.

Do the CNBC FUDsters have the ability to lock all brain capacity on Wall Street?
A combination thereof plus everything that we don't knew:cool:
 
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If you think the options holders have a say in corporate decisions, you are in for a rude awakening.
Let me put it this way: Options are not shares.

They even repeat that obvious statement in other words in the "options level" education agreements that you have to sign when you sign up for brokerage option trading.

Edit:

For example, all the many $TSLA (& $SCTY) stockholder elections I voted in with my shares never contained any of my options as shares to vote.

I had to convert a sizable number of my options into shares to vote for the $SCTY&$TSLA merger (with settlement date before the voting record date -- look it up (note that we had to guess about that because the record dates are often declared retroactively!)), and then after the voting record date of the election I wanted to voted in, I converted much of it back into options once I knew exactly how the options would behave. I excersized some options during the merger and kept some options across the merger. We had to learn exactly how that would work. In that case, holding options through the merger was relatively benign, but not completely indifferent to the merger. But it still made it very clear to us that options are only specified contracts that have to be properly analyzed.

I feel pain for those who got options for $TSLA that lost their time value, but that's why a lot of options traders get deep in the money options (note that the buyout offer covered the time value of DITM options so while your gamble didn't pay off handsomly, at least you didn't lose money, and hopefully you also had shares as well), consider out of the money options cheap lottery tickets, and even better yet, sell (write) options, especially as a way to get into and out of the stock in beneficial ways. Even there, there's a risk with options. The closing date of the option could be on the wrong day from the stock movement that you were right about, and you could be off by only 10 minutes, and it won't matter; in a way, it's the same as a buyout plan: you bargained that the rise would be in 2 years instead of 1 month. Your bargain failed to properly consider the effect that proving profitability would have (i.e., big big big big players with long long long long views and deep deep deep analysis could trigger that last litmus test way before many other slightly less interested very large funds that still traded a lot during the days, and it's off to the board with a proposal, many quarters before showing green in all columns, cashing in on being the early bird by billions of dollars; obviously, later in the game than the early early birds, but still there nonetheless, and often from slow conservative houses that are more careful and have more real money). I think most long term options traders also have diversity into shares as well, since options can do all sorts of things in exagerated ways. Options are a great way to exagerate market events, so they're more powerful, and that power can do all sorts of things, including not what you want at all.
 
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