So I had a sweet dream last night about making 10x from a short squeeze, then I woke up seeing I got a margin call from news confirming the source of the funding???
Please put me back to sleep.
Please put me back to sleep.
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I think Goebbels said "If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth". The FUDsters FUDstered so much over the years that even the media bought thier narrative, just because of that it makes sense to take the company private.
Scuttlebutt
Member
Perhaps the announcement of the Saudi Interest will motivate other Big Guns to jump in and invest in a Private TSLA? I would be ok with a 10-12% Saudi stake but more than that? It just doesn't feel right.
Agree and good point. But why is squeeze a problem? Come-on, just a little squeeze pleazzze. So now I'm wondering if I shouldn't buy more myself (saying I would hold just 15 min ago). I am putting a small sell in at $800 and maybe more at $1,200.
I don't think there will be a problem getting funding via one of the "options" to be committee reviewed. I take that as different mixes and % of players. If I were a billionaire philanthropist, I'd be calling Musk as well. Bill?
I'd think so. Elon would not give up control of Tesla for anything. He cares about that a lot more than about the original stockholders retaining their shares in the private company. This is his baby, and while he wants it to thrive, he also really wants to be in control.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Yikes...
I can't help but feel the latest announcement is just going to send the FUDsters off to the races, and this time I think I agree with them. Their position all along has been that Elon made the tweet about "funding secured" without having solid, signed and sealed commitments to cover the cost of the privatization. From the statement it looks like he did not. Whether he had to have that or not, I guess the SEC will rule on that but I have to admit, I don't feel any better after reading it. This could get ugly.
Just my $.02 of course.
Dan
I can't help but feel the latest announcement is just going to send the FUDsters off to the races, and this time I think I agree with them. Their position all along has been that Elon made the tweet about "funding secured" without having solid, signed and sealed commitments to cover the cost of the privatization. From the statement it looks like he did not. Whether he had to have that or not, I guess the SEC will rule on that but I have to admit, I don't feel any better after reading it. This could get ugly.
Just my $.02 of course.
Dan
It will depend on how big their position ends up being, IMHO. I don't know how much they could interfere if it stays below 15%.
Bloomberg doesn't estimate deliveries. They estimate production. The two are related but are not the same.
If their fate now depends on the future of Tesla (and similar projects), how can they not change?
Negotiations and due diligence always precede the actual deal. I'm perfectly comfortable with "secured" at this time.
bdy0627
Active Member
Why would institutions who aren't going to invest in TSLAP sell at this discount to the buyout price? If the deal fails, they have no reason to sell. If the deal goes through, Tesla pays them $420 per share. I can't think of a good reason why they would want to get out in a hurry at these lower prices.
Production spends the money and the deliveries bring it in. Deliveries are MUCH more important.
Krugerrand
Meow
Breathe. No more coffee. Massage. Alcohol. Ambient. Sleep.
Way more drama (in general from many) than required. I’ve seen this movie many times over the years. It works out in the end. Go read last year’s investor threads when Tesla was merging with Solar City. You’d have thought the zombie apocalypse had just happened. People always want to think the worst case scenario +1000. It’s an interesting human phenomenon except when it happens here year after year. Now it’s enough to give me a headache from the constant eye rolling.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Good, I'm relieved you are. I don't know enough about this stuff to make anything other than my uneducated opinion. Hopefully the SEC agrees with you! LOL!
Dan
Fair enough. Also, PV in Saudi Arabia has a near optimal capacity factor. So I guess the Saudi benefit to the transition to sustainable energy in general is limited to:
1) Supporting the production and construction of large PV-plants, thus driving down costs, and
2) Demonstrating that the cost of PV (in some locations) is lower than basically all other forms of electricity generation - and lower than even the marginal cost of anything but other sustainable sources (wind and hydro). For energy planners, it can be a real help to be able to point to actual, pre-existing projects and their costs.
Wooloomooloo
Member
Here's a nice reminder of why "instance gratification" is the enemy of change and progress.
Michael Dell gambled billions and saved his company — but can he do it again?
Michael Dell gambled billions and saved his company — but can he do it again?
I believe that a short squeeze is more and more improbable.
This is a completely different situation than VW-Porsche.
In this situation, there are a lot of shares in the market and probably a few current investors will have to sell as soon as some more details on the organisation are known.
For a short squeeze to happen a % higher than the short sellers position needed to be in possession of investor(s) NOT willing to sell.
Very difficult to happen IMO.
The market seems to agree with Dan today. I do as well. I do not think the blog post helped Musk's case with the Saudis or the SEC.
And now that he has increased his stake within Dell he wants to come back public again. What does that tell you?
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