TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

Anyone with an opinion on the shrinking of premiums on options once the 'going private' news was announced? ( was kinda surprising to see OTM calls lose value)
Once SEC news is over are we going to continue to see that trend and if so is this a harbringer of things to follow .. i.e. less volatility in SP?

 

[Ugliest1]

Does anyone think Elon is making himself look bad on purpose? Is he creating doubt to attract more shorts, which would then in turn lead to greater shock and a short squeeze once the deal is public? Maybe the board is in on this?

Let me think..... No.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I only hope, it has Hollywood ending..

Better.
Bollywood, but add Mariachis and More Cowbell...

You ARE the man. Keep spreading the word.

Friends don’t make friends Sh0w 1gn0red C0ntent, but this was worth it.

 

[anon]

I just read that NYT article. Not understanding why everyone here thinks it is so unfair.

Numerous reasons:
1) It was an hour-long interview, yet the article only contained a handful of direct quotes (was it even half a dozen?) - mostly the interview was an excuse to fill the article with a lot of random rumours "according to people familiar with the matter...", etc. Obviously most of the substance of the interview was completely ignored to dwell on these few cherry-picked quotes and rumours. One of the biggest rumours (the board looking to hire a COO to take responsibilities away from Musk) has already been comprehensively refuted by another source, according to a Bloomberg article today.

2) Almost everything Elon said, from the Ambien and sleep problems to stress and the excruciating Model 3 ramp, and even the emotion over the Model 3 earlier in the year, has been said by him repeatedly before, and in many cases fairly recently. The difference was that there was context before, and the market thought it was fine. This time, presented with a bundle of other rumours and out of context, the authors were able to draw a sensational headline and make the market think that some new mental collapse had happened.

3) Various other news sites picked up on this and so it's difficult to remember exactly who said what from the various articles, but overall the impression was given by many that Musk was distraught throughout, even when discussing his "going private" tweet last week, as though it was all somehow brought on by emotion. In reality, it is far more likely that the emotion was confined to discussing being away from his children and the hard times of the Model 3 ramp - i.e. just the same as in the shareholder meeting in June, when he also became emotional at times - the market thought it was fine then though because of context.

 

[tinm]

One additional tidbit about NYT’s David Gelles:

One of his claims to fame is his book about mindfulness meditation in the workplace. Especially meditation for executives in high-stress jobs.

Given that background it’s not surprising to me he finds Musk interesting. The question is, will Gelles be able to resist over the coming days, weeks, and months, the temptation to use the Elon case study as a way to further promote his book and speaking career about executive meditation. Me, I’m gonna be keeping an eye on him as I kinda expect he will not be able to resist that temptation forever.

 

[Matias]

Better.
Bollywood, but add Mariachis and More

I already see this in the closing credits

 

[CorneliusXX]

The problem will be once they get thru the AWD and P orders it will be tough to sell that many per week unless they build the SR base models with little or no profit. They already have lots full of unsold LR PUP RWD models.

The sedan market sucks right now for all car makers. If it was a small SUV it might be a different story.

BMW has already gone through all their orders. I guess they'll have to open a lemonade stand to make ends meet. It's already past peak summer in Europe so BMW will probably be bankrupt by Christmas.

 

[Brando]

Occam's razors would state that if Ford/GM/VW/BMW/Mercedes could of ended Tesla, they already would have.

With that said, it wouldn't hurt Elon to have qualified help. Many things are NOT in Elon's wheelhouse - PR obviously being one of them.

Elon hires some of the best. SpaceX? Many "experienced" would not leave ULA/Boeing/Lockheed to risk working at SpaceX. You think he got this far NOT hiring qualified people? non-sense. Do they have the best/lowest cost batteries? seems so. [44,000 employees??]

PR? who cares - advertising? No. Make great products and you don't need to "sell" people on buying them. Elon would rather spend money on improving the product vs selling the product. How to win? Continuous improvement - the only way to stay number one? Tell us why Bob Lutz startups are not doing at least as well as Tesla? Fisker, VLF, Destino, VIA trucks. And Bob Lutz is one of the "hundreds of auto industry execs". [check his Bio].

Madison Ave and Wall St. care about PR not sure PR has helped any of the rest of us. PR one of the problems of US companies IMHO - IF GM took care of ignition switch, they would not have needed PR, would they?
IF they actually made Bolts the volume would bring down losses, right? Will they make 60,000 in 2 years TOTAL??

 

[KarenRei]

I already see this in the closing credits
View attachment 326716

Seriously, though, this is going to literally make a great movie. Wouldn't be surprised if it's not even that long until it happens. I'm sure someone has a script mostly ready and is just waiting to see what the "ending" is (Tesla bankwupt, or Tesla becomes profitable and the shorts get kicked to the curb).

Literally everything about this guy's life seems perfectly designed for a movie, from his childhood onward. Heck, he's already been the inspiration for movie characters, like the portrayal of Tony Stark.

Wonder who will play him? Nathan Fillion?

 

[MXWing]

Elon hires some of the best. SpaceX? Many "experienced" would not leave ULA/Boeing/Lockheed to risk working at SpaceX. You think he got this far NOT hiring qualified people? non-sense. Do they have the best/lowest cost batteries? seems so.

PR? who cares - advertising? No. Make great products and you don't need to "sell" people on buying them. Elon would rather spend money on improving the product vs selling the product. How to win? Continuous improvement - the only way to stay number one? Tell us why Bob Lutz startups are not doing at least as well as Tesla? Fisker, VLF, Destino, VIA trucks. And Bob Lutz is one of the "hundreds of auto industry execs". [check his Bio].

Madison Ave and Wall St. care about PR not sure PR has helped any of the rest of us. PR one of the problems of US companies IMHO - IF GM took care of ignition switch, they would not have needed PR.

Hubris helps no one. Not even the almighty SpaceX and Tesla.

Qualified people won’t eat batteries for dinner or put their families to sleep inside a capsule or Tesla car. Trashing their equity constantly is not a good way to retain qualified people.

Your hubris only works if everyone at the organization has FU money. They obviously don’t. Look how problematic even the delivery process is. Only Musk and the board have that kind of finances.

Do you think Usain Bolt, the most dominant runner ever grabs random shoes from the Big 5 clearance rack?

He or his handlers try to load up on every aspect to help him win.

Skilled PR would filter every Musk tweet. Think how sweet it would have been to slow play TeslaP.

Let the stock hit 420 on its own and THEN announce buyout. That would have resulted in the SBOTC.

 

[Driver Dave]

I just read that NYT article. Not understanding why everyone here thinks it is so unfair.

I think it is the feeling that the real interview was probably 5% "it was hard"

But then 95% "but the company is doing well right now"

And what the reported did was lead with the 5% it was hard, then focus on the 5% it was hard, and never even get to the 95% things are good. While quoting anonymous sources to pump up the it was hard.

Then the stock dropped 30 points.

If the article was fair, the stock would have not dropped 30 points.

Because the reality is, Tesla just came through a hard part, but as Q2 showed, and the confidence they have to even consider that they could go private at this point, shows that Tesla made it through in a really great spot.

The stock should would not be tanking if the article, and the ones that came before it that week in the Times, had a fair and accurate view of Tesla as a company. The reality that Tesla is in fact in a good spot and headed in a great direction to become a self sustaining cash cow like Space X is now.

Instead of just the Elon click bait soap opera the reporter contrived.

The only bright side, for a 10 year long term bet, good time to stock up on some more. Let the irrational chaos make a big dip, and then go and capitalize on the knuckleheads.

 

[Krugerrand]

If i put on my tin foil 5D chess hat it does seem a little strange for him to be speaking with the NYT in the way he did. If he was going to borrow against SpaceX to purchase more Tesla then telling one of the worlds largest newspapers that he's a crazy drug addict is certainly one way he could manipulate the share price in his favour without being accused of market manipulation. It may even be a great counter argument to the SEC complaint. The lower share price would certainly help him get more control - even if it is at the expense of other investors. He could likely pick up another 5%-15% (to add to the 20% he already owns) of Tesla with SpaceX borrowings which would put him in almost total control of the company as few other shareholders would need to agree with him. Once performance bonuses are included he could be heading towards outright control over the next 10 years.

Ok. Tinfoil hat off now.

Except that he’s already said he didn’t want anyone have full control, not even himself. But maybe that was the drugs talking.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I posted this earlier on the General Thread¹:

I think Tesla is definitely doing something related to marketing, especially towards younger generations, especially using Youtube:

• MKBHD and Elon (see above). MKBHD has 6.5 millions subscribers, and will publish another video of a tour at the Gigafactory
  
• JB Straubel on The Verge:

• Unbox Therapy and Model 3. Unbox Therapy has 12mil subs. Elon retweeted it yesterday.

Casey Neistat (10mil subs) also bought a Model X recently, and will do a review soon.
Good thing is that Casey is from New York, which is a tougher crowd than West Coast.

¹ Do we need a General Thread any more? Everybody is here, all the time, writing everything. If we aren't able to moderate ourselves here, we should at least close the General thread and rename this one.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Also:
part 2 of "Two Bits da Vinci" on Batteries series is online:

Part 1 was great, and I invite everyone to share this on twitter (maybe tagging Elon) as the channel is not very famous but the content is something worth sharing.

 

[Krugerrand]

One additional tidbit about NYT’s David Gelles:

One of his claims to fame is his book about mindfulness meditation in the workplace. Especially meditation for executives in high-stress jobs.

Given that background it’s not surprising to me he finds Musk interesting. The question is, will Gelles be able to resist over the coming days, weeks, and months, the temptation to use the Elon case study as a way to further promote his book and speaking career about executive meditation. Me, I’m gonna be keeping an eye on him as I kinda expect he will not be able to resist that temptation forever.

I’ve got an idea for him to meditate on, unfortunately it’s against forum rules. But if I ever run into him in my lifetime, I’ll be sure to pass it along. I want him to be his best self.

 

[phil0909]

For the record, both of those terms accurately describe Messrs Chanos and Schmiegal more so than Mr. Musk who is self described political agnostic and whose primary motivation is to accomplish tasks that benefit the whole of humanity which is different than the term Capitalist.

Of course you put the winky thingy at the end of ur post so maybe ur just kiddin, eh?

You got me. Musk certainly qualifies as an outstanding capitalist, but his political donations notwithstanding, only in fun would I ever accuse him of Republicanism!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I just read that NYT article. Not understanding why everyone here thinks it is so unfair.

Because of what they didn’t say, and the quotes they attributed to him that made him sound out of control in the context they put it in. It was a perfectly accurate article, but not at all representative of Tesla or Elon. They had a storyline in mind, Elon is on the verge of cracking up, and they selectively took quotes and actions that made him sound like that.

Remember, Elon, the NYT has never been your friend and never will be.

 

[alst]

Something doesn't add up. Elon has been hinting at a short squeeze for a while now. He even did it after the tweet. He also probably knows that every tweet he send would be subject to an immense analysis by the SEC. Sure, he wanted to tell the retail investors first. However, why risk so many lawsuits by sending a tweet? It sure wouldn't be something that longs would want. Maybe, it just is that he made a mistake. If it is that simple, I am willing to buy it. Confused but still long.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think Tesla is definitely doing something related to marketing, especially towards younger generations, especially using Youtube:

Tesla never said they are not marketing their products - they even have significant marketing expenses (mostly related to the referral system I suspect).

Tesla said that they do not want to do advertising - mass advertising in particular.

Here are their rules in a nutshell:

Referral Program

"Not OK:

• Advertising
• Spam
• Anything misleading or annoying

OK:

• YouTube channels
• Informational & fan websites
• Social media sharing"

It's a pretty straightforward stance.

 

[Cosmacelf]

btw: don't count on a fair WSJ...they've been taking shots at Tesla for quite a while (James Murdoch apparently has no influence but then again after his role in the News of the World scandal I don't expect much).

Sadly, the Rupert Murdoch UK "sensationalist" approach has polluted American media which is now running a race to the bottom.....

For many years now, the journalists of the WSJ were anti-business, while the editorial board was more conservative and pro growth, pro business. Even that’s changed. Holman Jenkin’s opinion piece the other day where he assumed Elon’s SEC guilty verdict was execrable. With the rise of the Internet and competition for eyeballs, all news organizations have become no better than supermarket checkout stand tabloids.