TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MXWing]

If it drops below $280,00 I will be back in. I have some cash in my account from selling at $320.00 back in early June.

Since it’s going to be a bloodbath, you have all weekend to prepare your short sell.

Short premarket.. cover at 275 and then go long.

I’m not as smart as you are so I added to long on the big sell off instead of shorting.

 

[lunitiks]

Elon Musk,

 

[Open Interest]

The problem will be once they get thru the AWD and P orders it will be tough to sell that many per week unless they build the SR base models with little or no profit. They already have lots full of unsold LR PUP RWD models.

The sedan market sucks right now for all car makers. If it was a small SUV it might be a different story.

Can someone please translate LR PUP for me? (I’m not a car person. I love the company, love Elon, love the mission..... but not these abbreviations). Thank you!

 

[adaptabl]

Can someone please translate LR PUP for me? (I’m not a car person. I love the company, love Elon, love the mission..... but not these abbreviations). Thank you!

LW = long range
PUP = Premium upgrade package

 

[KarenRei]

Can someone please translate LR PUP for me? (I’m not a car person. I love the company, love Elon, love the mission..... but not these abbreviations). Thank you!

LR = Long Range ($9k option, currently mandatory)
PUP = Premium Upgrades Package ($5k option, currently mandatory)

 

[elasalle]

I know its off topic but Tesla now has over 100,000 Model 3 vins registered.

Tesla Model 3 Production Hits 70,000, With Registered VINs Near 100,000

For context .. @ May 20 #Tesla registered 3 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 43903.
So in 3 mths we have another 50K VINs registered.

5K/Week holding up. so 65K deliveries for 3Q ...

 

[adaptabl]

Since it’s going to be a bloodbath, you have all weekend to prepare your short sell.

Short premarket.. cover at 275 and then go long.

I’m not as smart as you are so I added to long on the big sell off instead of shorting.

No guts for short selling here. I prefer a few singles than go for the home run. Set my buy and sell levels than keep to that plan has worked best for me.

 

[Remus]

I don't see him doing that at all. Elon is far from the mental state they are describing.

They had an hour long interview yet that hit piece only included pathetic little from what he actually said. And they had to mixed with whole lot of hearsay.

If that is truly what's Elon's mind is like, they would have much more of what he said in the article. And they would have no problem releasing the whole interview.

The fear is Elon is losing it big time. The shorts are already under his skin, enough that he put himself and the company in jeopardy with his "fully funded" tweet. Tesla is Elon. If anything happened to him as leader the value of the company stock would drop like a rock. The next couple of months will be interesting. I can see Elon taking an extended vacation very soon.

 

[Brando]

I didn’t find that article so negative.

I quoted the paragraph I objected to. The hundreds of auto execs that could do better.

I didn't comment on author opinion Elon could do SpaceX, Boring Company, solar city roofing, storage Elon just couldn't handle the car company as there are so many great car exec that could run a profitable operation, as author thinks Elon can't, right? not that negative, (if you say so)

 

[Krugerrand]

The problem will be once they get thru the AWD and P orders it will be tough to sell that many per week unless they build the SR base models with little or no profit. They already have lots full of unsold LR PUP RWD models.

The sedan market sucks right now for all car makers. If it was a small SUV it might be a different story.

Uh, huh. You got this buddy. Tesla bankrupt any second now. Blood bath coming. Elon’s got one foot in jail and the other in a mental institution.

Thank you!! Thank you sooooo much for preventing me from doing something super stupid and investing in this fraud at $30 some-odd and watching that investment disinegrate before my eyes to...hang on let me check...$305.50. From being in the middle of a disasterous sustainable energy ecosystem building company and all that other horrible stuff this con man and his scamming tens of thousands of employees are doing.

You ARE the man. Keep spreading the word. Leave no stone unturned in your quest to lead us all to salvation. Live long and prosper must surely be the words you live by. Never has anyone been more noble than you.

 

[MXWing]

I quoted the paragraph I objected to. The hundreds of auto execs that could do better.

I didn't comment on author opinion Elon could do SpaceX, Boring Company, solar city roofing, storage Elon just couldn't handle the car company as there are so many great car exec that could run a profitable operation, as author thinks Elon can't, right? not that negative, (if you say so)

Occam's razors would state that if Ford/GM/VW/BMW/Mercedes could of ended Tesla, they already would have.

With that said, it wouldn't hurt Elon to have qualified help. Many things are NOT in Elon's wheelhouse - PR obviously being one of them.

 

[BenPrice]

I wouldn’t be upset if TSLA continued its plunge this week. I’m loading up on November calls - expecting several positive drivers in that timeframe:

Release of Aug and Sep sales estimated from evsales, which has had a very high accuracy in its existence.

Earnings and earnings build-up which should contain a chart that shows a stupid amount of M3s sold versus the rest of the segment.

Any potential privitization news.

China and Germany news.

This dip is going to make me a lot of money, and we have another 2 weeks until, barring surprise, the first event on that list.

 

[The Blue Owl]

A rant to follow, sorry.

+1....my Dad & I have subscribed to NYT & WSJ since 1950.....I dropped NYT today (for the longest time it was the best paper in the World...now, ugh).

btw: don't count on a fair WSJ...they've been taking shots at Tesla for quite a while (James Murdoch apparently has no influence but then again after his role in the News of the World scandal I don't expect much).

Sadly, the Rupert Murdoch UK "sensationalist" approach has polluted American media which is now running a race to the bottom.....

I've been a subscriber to both for a long time. The first time I dropped the NYT was after the Broder fiasco. When Trump became president, I re-subscribed. Yesterday I dropped it again. I will make sure I let them know why.

A few months ago I also dropped the WSJ. I always thought (and still do) that their news division is top-notch, but I couldn't stand the thought that some of my dollars ended up in the pockets of scoundrels like Holman Jenkins, Jr. Also, Tim Higgins' coverage on Tesla is almost always meant to mislead.

I still subscribe to the Financial Times and a few other things. We need a professional press. Come to think of it, that is actually why I dropped the Times. The people behind the latest Musk exposé sold out a long time ago, and so did the editors who approved this story. Nothing professional about that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Does anyone think Elon is making himself look bad on purpose? Is he creating doubt to attract more shorts, which would then in turn lead to greater shock and a short squeeze once the deal is public? Maybe the board is in on this?

If i put on my tin foil 5D chess hat it does seem a little strange for him to be speaking with the NYT in the way he did. If he was going to borrow against SpaceX to purchase more Tesla then telling one of the worlds largest newspapers that he's a crazy drug addict is certainly one way he could manipulate the share price in his favour without being accused of market manipulation. It may even be a great counter argument to the SEC complaint. The lower share price would certainly help him get more control - even if it is at the expense of other investors. He could likely pick up another 5%-15% (to add to the 20% he already owns) of Tesla with SpaceX borrowings which would put him in almost total control of the company as few other shareholders would need to agree with him. Once performance bonuses are included he could be heading towards outright control over the next 10 years.

Ok. Tinfoil hat off now.

 

[elasalle]

i have hesitated to post until the weekend to try to put this in perspective. As I recall several years ago EM said he did not expect Tesla to be profitable until 2020 at earliest. He also said he was not interested in reacting to short term market prices and was interested in long term investors along for the ride. This is exactly why I invested wil a 10-15 year horizon. I firmly believe that EM like many of us got diverted into the war against the shorts and the click FUD artists. His reaction at Q1CC was symptomatic. Afterwards his emphasis on no capital raise and profitability in hindsight appear to be contrary to his Mission.

I can't help but wonder if he has returned to the Mission and wants to use profits for R&D and increased CapEx. Taking the Company private would enable him to use availabe (and borrowed) funds to accelerate the Y, Semi and the P/U , build G Factories and most of all avoid concentration on the short term stock market. I have one fund that I hope to become part of TSLAP but would likely have to sell the other at $420. I am not upset because the Mission has been clear from the start and I support the Mission.

I also have been thinking that the main reason to go private is not so much to deal with the short sellers, but to access capital markets to be able to move more fluidly and quickly without scrutiny.
Watching the M.Brownlee interview I am now even more convinced that this is the case. EM mentions that they want to do two products at the same time, and that they have a bunch of exciting products all lined up.

 

[lklundin]

Cars are being produced at ever growing scales. Unfortunately, it won’t be obvious until the next quarter report, but Tesla, the company, is far from being in any kind of real dire straits.

Before next quarter, the August sales numbers look like they will make it quite clear what kind of disruptive car the Model 3 is, as helpfully explained by our contributor, Mr. Zachary Shahan here:

Tesla Model 3 Might = 5th Best Selling Car In USA In August | CleanTechnica

Big Auto and Big Oil can make these projections as well, so it is no wonder that the FUD is at an all time high.

On a personal level, I hope for my TSLA investment to be profitable (and my Model 3 to arrive as projected), but regardless of that it is really satisfying to see that Tesla is fighting the good fight and (once again) proving all the naysayers wrong.

Go Tesla! Go Elon Musk!

 

[MXWing]

Can someone please translate LR PUP for me? (I’m not a car person. I love the company, love Elon, love the mission..... but not these abbreviations). Thank you!

These are the current Tesla variants

3P+ - Performance Model 3 with Performance Upgrade - Option: Premium Upgrade Package default
3P - Performance Model 3 - Option: Premium Upgrade Package default
3LRD - Long Range AWD Model 3 - Option: Premium Upgrade Package default
3LR - Long Range RWD Model 3 - Option: Premium Upgrade Package default

PUP isn't used to differentiate Model S and Model X so interesting they are doing it for the 3. I suppose $5K is significant at the $35K price point - less so at $75K.

PUP = Premium Upgrade Package. $5K option bundle that is presently forced. Can't deselect it so all the current variants assume to have it now.

 

[Chop110]

Any chartist would realize Tesla is oversold - again assuming no more bad news to paraphrase what you said.

It could very well dip, but I agree, RSI number shows the stock is seriously in oversold territory. If we do have a dip, I am of the opinion that it will be bottoming out before the anticipated climb... then the roller coaster starts anew...

Make no mistake, I suspect there are many investors seeing this dip as a buying opportunity and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign of the stock bottoming out. When it does, I would not be surprised if they buy in mass. Remember, just recently we had a 50 point day before the “secured” tweet madness. After the market gets over the NYT article and starts seeing all those M3’s being sold, things will change quickly.

 

[Boomer19]

The fear is Elon is losing it big time. The shorts are already under his skin, enough that he put himself and the company in jeopardy with his "fully funded" tweet. Tesla is Elon. If anything happened to him as leader the value of the company stock would drop like a rock. The next couple of months will be interesting. I can see Elon taking an extended vacation very soon.

believe everything you read, huh?

 

[MXWing]

It could very well dip, but I agree, RSI number shows the stock is seriously in oversold territory. If we do have a dip, I am of the opinion that it will be bottoming out before the anticipated climb... then the roller coaster starts anew...

Can use today to open up the HELOC if it keeps dipping.