TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Xorbit]

Decided I like her! So added some ARKK in my IRA portfolio (yes, my investment decisions are quite random)

They make all their research freely available and their analysts always respond to emails. I've found their I can't recommend them highly enough.

Yeah. Their valuation is heavily impacted by vehicle as a service (autonomous robo taxis). I agree this has great potential, but how it unfolds re pace, breadth of adoption and Tesla market share is a big question... even if Tesla has the best tech.

What’s more, when Cathy talks about 80% margins, I wonder if she prices the service as Elon has said he envisions... cost of a bus ride. Maybe she does, will be interesting to see her models.

fwiw, my conservative valuation at $500+ today (based on ~$1200-1800 in 8 years) doesn’t require me to rely on Tesla Network inclusion to justify holding here... so, I’ve thus far not taken on trying to value this currently extremely wide range of potential outcomes.

From their latest article. The whole thing is worth reading:
"In addition, once Tesla launches the Tesla Network, its autonomous ride-hailing network, it could collect platform fees, similar to Uber’s model today, from every autonomous ride charged to the consumer. Given a rate of $1 per mile to the end consumer and over 100,000 miles per year per vehicle, Tesla could benefit from $20,000 in high-margin platform fees per car per year.

Over a five-year lifetime, a single Model 3 could generate $40,000 in net cash flow. Even investors optimistic about Tesla’s prospects project the Model 3 cash flow at $4,000 and one-time in nature. In effect, each Model 3 sale could generate 10 times more cash flow than investors currently understand."
Tesla’s Autonomous Opportunity is Severely Underappreciated

 

[N5329K]

Oh yeay, Linette Lopez, the paradigm of accuracy and fairness in Tesla reporting. (/snark)

Even if you take it at face value, what exactly is the logic in comparing rework rates on a plant in scaleup to a plant in steadystate? From a profitability standpoint, Tesla currently having a high rework rate (and a high scrap rate) would be great, because it'd mean that there's that much potential ahead for reduction in costs and improvement in margins. If they already had a low rework and scrap rate, the potential for improving margins would be much more limited.

Yep. The source is certainly suspect. As are her motives. And a new (ish) company building a brand-new product will always have more "issues" than a plant extruding the same old turds by the thousands. But that said, it doesn't mean the article (or the author) is entirely wrong. Here's what people on the receiving end (good and bad) have to say:
86% of June Model 3s "reworked"
Robin

 

[Matias]

Any literature experts? What does Musk’s T.S. Elliot “The Waste Land” quote means? Maybe we need retired Kremlinology experts?

 

[KarenRei]

Any literature experts? What does Musk’s T.S. Elliot “The Waste Land” quote means?

Memento Mori, is it not? Perhaps with a dash of Ozymandias thrown in?

 

[Remus]

This twitter silence from Elon/Tesla has been so boring. Had to pick up a couple dozen more shares to keep from falling asleep. I think you and I are sorta on a similar wavelength.

Ok I am gonna beat this dead horse and I don't care I end up on some ignore list.

Elon's twitter silence should be welcomed. This appears to be a turning point for Elon. Combined with his recent MKBHD interview, where he showed great constraint when talking about future product and time line. Apparently he got excited with something but end up cut himself short in one occasion. And for the cheaper car he said in 3 years if everybody works really hard, which leaves no bone to be picked on.

It's sadden me to say this but us Tesla believers are far from majority. We see Elon's transparency and aggressive timeline as honesty and his way to push forward. And honestly many hard working, brilliant engineers are like that. But the mass don't see it that way. And that is why many people believe the shorts when they accuse him of over promise and under deliver.

if as I wish that Elon truly begin to rein in his desire of sharing on twitter, only talk about his aggressive goals with employees, that would remove the most potent weapon of the shorts. Overtime this would be great for all of us.

until his next twitter storm, I can only wish.

 

[RobStark]

People with deep pockets don't sue for cash. They sue to silence the truth.

Ok, what TMCer has been silenced by the nefarious cabal of Shorts?

 

[mongo]

Ok, what TMCer has been silenced by the nefarious cabal of Shorts?

Ya might as well ask, "are you asleep? "
First rule of gag order club, don't talk about gag order club.
(I'm not saying anyone has been silenced, mind you)

 

[Tslynk67]

WOW. what is in the letter ARK is sending Tesla today or tomorrow?
$2,000/share valuation as of today........
a pleasant 5 minutes

Yeah was she great, or what?

 

[RobStark]

You can make up anything you want. If you get paid for it, you're a journalist.

Getting paid makes you a professional journalist.

 

[Tslynk67]

Latest Elon tweet.

View attachment 327586

It's Iain M. Banks, from the first Culture novel, Consider Phlebas.

Edit: to clarify, it's Eliot, but Elon will have got it from Banks.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Elon's twitter silence should be welcomed. This appears to be a turning point for Elon. Combined with his recent MKBHD interview, where he showed great constraint when talking about future product and time line. Apparently he got excited with something but end up cut himself short in one occasion. And for the cheaper car he said in 3 years if everybody works really hard, which leaves no bone to be picked on.

I welcome his silence, too. But only because, to me, it seems to be the calm before the storm. The storm named Elon that is going to destroy all the shorts

 

[Off Shore]

FUD machine cranking up this morning: according to Businesses Insider who apparently for some undisclosed reason have access to Tesla's internal documents only 14% of Model 3s produced in June didn't need any rework. (No I'm not going to grant them a link)

Incoming delivery...
Edit: Never mind.

 

[madodel]

Ok, what TMCer has been silenced by the nefarious cabal of Shorts?

No idea, but Munro is being sued after posting a positive teardown of the Model 3.

 

[Off Shore]

FUD machine cranking up this morning: according to Businesses Insider who apparently for some undisclosed reason have access to Tesla's internal documents only 14% of Model 3s produced in June didn't need any rework. (No I'm not going to grant them a link)

Incoming delivery:

 

[Tslynk67]

BTW., "Consider Phlebas" is also one of the Culture sci-fi novels by Ian M. Banks.

As is Look to Windward...

 

[CorneliusXX]

You should check out her podcast interview on "invest like the best" episode 97. She goes into more detail around her Tesla valuation. And you might understand what you just bought.

 

[pyromatter]

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-instagram-drama-is-getting-even-weirder-1828488303

Update 11:20am - Elon Musk has confirmed what happened to his Instagram account. “I deleted it last night,” Musk told Gizmodo. He offered no further explanation.

Update 12:40pm - Elon Musk has clarified why he deleted his Instagram. “I didn’t like it,” Musk told Gizmodo.

 

[Tslynk67]

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-instagram-drama-is-getting-even-weirder-1828488303

Update 11:20am - Elon Musk has confirmed what happened to his Instagram account. “I deleted it last night,” Musk told Gizmodo. He offered no further explanation.

Update 12:40pm - Elon Musk has clarified why he deleted his Instagram. “I didn’t like it,” Musk told Gizmodo.

Good, right now, Elon needs to knuckle-down and focus on Twitter...

 

[tti_7]

Any literature experts? What does Musk’s T.S. Elliot “The Waste Land” quote means? Maybe we need retired Kremlinology experts?

My take... A fortnight means two weeks. Yup. And Phlebas has been dead for that long. I would take it as saying goodbye to being public, as we take the wheel and go windward (a direction with more control for a naval vessel).

 

[TDog]

Just to dissect Elon's tweet a little more... (and forgive me, because I'm not overly familiar with T.S. Eliot)

Elon:

Read Eliot’s notes on The Waste Land The Waste Land - Wikipedia

In reading the Wikipedia page, it appears that T.S. Eliot had to add notes to his original poem. So what notes is Elon referring to?

This is an interesting part of the wiki article

The notes were added after Eliot's publisher requested something longer to justify printing The Waste Land in a separate book. Thirty years after publishing the poem with these notes, Eliot expressed his regret at "having sent so many enquirers off on a wild goose chase after Tarot cards and the Holy Grail"

Only with TSLA, does an investor need to read poetry to gain insight into a CEO's thinking.