TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

bloomberg ragging
Terms of Service Violation

 

[Drax7]

Cynical narrative to support their short bias, typical Bloomberg.

 

[Buckminster]

Having lurked here for 2 or 3 years I just realised that having an actual account is helpful. You can "Go to First Unread" for instance. I suggest other lurkers do the same.

 

[JoaoD]

Having lurked here for 2 or 3 years I just realised that having an actual account is helpful. You can "Go to First Unread" for instance. I suggest other lurkers do the same.

You can also ignore some members, and have the option to show ignored posts in the bottom of the page.
The ignore function has been really helpful this last days if you are trying to read through this thread without being bombarded with misinformation.

 

[replicant]

What do you think this is?
The Market Action thread?

I think the low is more like $297 but we may have hit our low for today already.

I think the SP will move both ways, with green and red numbers. And then settle at market close. And I think it won't move on Monday.

 

[ggr]

Employees can trade ESPP shares acquired in the last 6 months beginning Tuesday. Shares are purchased at 15% below the lower price at the beginning or end of the 6 month period. Guaranteed 15% return every 6 months.

But if they really want return, it's better to hold them for 18 months plus one day, so the sale becomes capital gains. (Yes, it's different for ESPP stock than purchased stock.)

 

[scaesare]

Also, seriously curious:

- Why did Elon suddenly unfollow Electrek on Twitter today?

- Why is SolarCity's Twitter account set to protected?

You are a Curious Sunbird.... oh... whoops... got my bears confused.

Nevermind...

 

[Buckminster]

You can also ignore some members, and have the option to show ignored posts in the bottom of the page.
The ignore function has been really helpful this last days if you are trying to read through this thread without being bombarded with misinformation.

Thanks - I have ignored some already but found on this thread there are too many well intentioned longs (like me) that are cluttering it up (like me now....). I posted on another thread the following but it doesn't get the footfall so not sure what the answer is:

First post - long time lurker. Thank you to majority of you posters - I have learnt a lot over the past few years. An idea I had that I thought was worth sharing:

Countering FUD by Twitter is a good move but seems a little negative. Tesla don’t have a PR department of note. Elon’s tweets are all very discrete in as much as you have to piece together all the great things in your head to make TSLA a investment must have. Nobody is putting out a succinct story of all the products and features that Tesla will be coming out in the next few years. Dave T used to do this a bit in the good old days but I haven’t seen anything since. Is this something that we could collectively put together and then get published by Fred or Papafox now that he is a journo? Not sure I have the mad skillz to do it justice.

An extreme example of what could be included is car karaoke. Barely mentioned on here. Could we generate a bull case of 10,000 extra cars per year bought by fathers being asked for karaoke in 5 years from now? Valued at p/s of 2 would value it as 1 Bn USD market cap! Sounds crazy but how many iPhones are getting bought off the back of the Fortnite craze?

Individually, all these add up. Factchecking also made a great point that food and beverage companies will buy the semi so that hey can load up in their chilled warehouses and use the semi as a chilled warehouse indefinitely.

 

[shlokavica22]

Any news? Or why did the price shoot up $6 in a 15 minutes?

My guess is algos reacting to the news about Amazon UK location installing Tesla Powerwalls. At least one of the articles I read has a timestamp just before the steep climb.

 

[brian45011]

And the Buffalo plant IS in operation and they have been making tiles for over 6 months now. So the S curve ramp could be any day now.

It is not like they are starting from scratch.

Tesla is looking for workers for its Buffalo factory

Report: Tesla’s latest production troubles are happening at its solar factory

 

[Revhappy2]

This is what I have been trying to do for the last 2 hours. I place an order, change my mind and cancel it. Can someone convince me to pull the trigger and sell that J20 300 PUT ?

 

[Causalien]

Note that on the conference call they mentioned that they have functional, tested, compatible field-test units already, and successfully tested them on all vehicle variants. This is what Pete Bannon said on the CC:

"My team is leading currently the Hardware 3 development. The chips are up and working, and we have drop-in replacements for S, X and 3, all have been driven in the field. They support the current networks running today in the car at full frame rates with a lot of idle cycles to spare. So, I think we're all really excited about what Andrej and his team will be able to do with this hardware in the future."
​

This suggests they are in a very advanced stage:

• they already taped out the layout a couple of times and bootstrapped the AI chip, for a target process - for example for 14nm. They know who is making the chips and they have probably negotiated the exact volume pricing as well.
  
• they have developed and tested the glue, the firmware, the interfaces and the host CPU software (x86 - see below).
• they have a drop-in computing blade for all relevant vehicle platforms

Note that they have very narrow compatibility constraints, because they have full control of the entire software environment, which probably sped up the R&D and productization process significantly - just 2-3 years since late 2015 is super fast for an entirely new chip.

My other guess is that they eliminated the ARM aspect of Nvidia's blade entirely, and are interfacing the x86 host CPUs (which I suspect runs the main vehicle control loop and Autopilot logic) to the AI chip directly. But this is very speculative, just based on the probable design of their system - and my guess could be wrong: it would cost Tesla very little to license a generic ARM core and integrate it into their AI-chip (Pete Bannon has done that at Apple) - but maybe they avoided even that step.

Thanks for the conference call info, my memories are really bad nowadays.

Ya, it is very probable that tsla started the chip design process from when they dropped mobile eye and nvidia is an interim solution. From that point of view the timeline makes sense.

The arm core probably cost $1 per chip. But that's pretty old pricing. Overall, the biggest cost of the tapeout is the tapeout process itself. The chip itself along with licensing is relatively cheap. I only hope that tesla timeline does not force them to use super hot runs as that burns way too much money and increases failure %.

With this said, the short thesis on tesla hardware not able to handle full autonomy in the future is debunked. It does bring into question everyone who is on nvidia's platform using plex 2. How they are going to manage the extra power consumption and heat.

 

[brian45011]

But if they really want return, it's better to hold them for 18 months plus one day, so the sale becomes capital gains. (Yes, it's different for ESPP stock than purchased stock.)

The LTCG period varies according to the terms of the corporation's plan. Whether to pay STCGs or wait for LTCG depends on individual's marginal bracket, other investment gains/lossess, and the comfort level of the individual in concentrating his financial future with his employer. Also, if they previously filled the pipeline from prior ESPP periods, just sell every 6 months. Non section 16 officer employees can trade for their own accounts using NPMI with relative impunity.

 

[avoigt]

You can also ignore some members, and have the option to show ignored posts in the bottom of the page.
The ignore function has been really helpful this last days if you are trying to read through this thread without being bombarded with misinformation.

Is there an option, disregard FUD?

 

[brian45011]

This is what I have been trying to do for the last 2 hours. I place an order, change my mind and cancel it. Can someone convince me to pull the trigger and sell that J20 300 PUT ?

View attachment 330630

Do a put spread or sell a strangle.`NOT ADVICE! ( or as is popular here: "an advice")

 

[tivoboy]

If one is hoping for a late afternoon rally into the close I,wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Driver Dave]

bloomberg ragging
Terms of Service Violation

The level of understanding of running a growth business is at a kindergarten level here.

It's like writing about how Steve Jobs is sometimes not nice to people... and ignoring the iPhone.

They are just way focused on the absolutely wrong things.

And thus their readers have no visibility into the actual reality of what is going.

Q3, Q4 - going to be a real surprised to many people when they see how M3s are popping out and not stopping but increasing.

I see more and more on the road each day...

Maybe Bloomberg should report on that... you think?

 

[shlokavica22]

This is what I have been trying to do for the last 2 hours. I place an order, change my mind and cancel it. Can someone convince me to pull the trigger and sell that J20 300 PUT ?

I assume cash covered?
Ask yourself this- will you buy the stock at the current price. If yes- obviously go for it. Even if you get assigned (highly unlikely), you will get the stock for ~$230, instead of $300.

What I can't see right now is the IV. In the last couple of days the IV dropped, so you probably won't get the best possible price.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Arghhh, Set my buy at $299.50 and watched it drop to 299.56 a couple times...ended up buying at $300.00 to get it over with and now, of course, it's at $298! Added 7 more today...every little bit helps!
Probably my last opportunity to buy at this price. by Q4? Forget it.

A big shout out to all of you here and all that you do for the little guy...thanks!

 

[ezevphl]

Musk is not a cult leader.
Tesla is not a cult.
It's a religion! ... oh, what am I saying... it's the ONE TRUE RELIGION!
We have far more proof of the existence of our savior than any other religion!

Hmm, now if we could only organize and get tax exempt status..