Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
It is entirely possible that there is a larger pool of people that want a 3 AWD or 3P than want a 3 RWD, they are different groups of people and different content cars.

If the 35k car (base RWD) became a 40k car (base RWD) with no feature set difference, then the rule of thumb would be applicable.

And then you have the converts -> People that were gunning for the 35k initially, and couldn't help to purchase long range AWD... But I'll be less ambitious than @beachbum77 and I'll confess that I don't know which proportion of them are converts.

I would have thought that applying the legacy companies models to Tesla Model 3 sales is unwise, but here we are...
 
It is entirely possible that there is a larger pool of people that want a 3 AWD or 3P than want a 3 RWD, they are different groups of people and different content cars.

If the 35k car (base RWD) became a 40k car (base RWD) with no feature set difference, then the rule of thumb would be applicable.
dude don't bother. He just throws crap.
He is talking about rules of saturated market.
Obviously the number of people capable to pay 70k for an auto is much less than the pool of 35k crowd. When there will be actual choice of EV in Tesla price segments we will return to these rules, but so far the choice is between Tesla or nothing. Tesla is going to sell everything they produce in the volume range they can manage. The real bottlenecks are quite natural.
painting shops: it takes a lot of space and time per vehicle,
and servicing: people after a while get questions, do stupid things, cars just get broken.

To avoid "Norway" they have to slow down with deliveries at some point. Nevertheless I am quite curious what are the numbers in USA for august.
 
And then you have the converts -> People that were gunning for the 35k initially, and couldn't help to purchase long range AWD... But I'll be less ambitious than @beachbum77 and I'll confess that I don't know which proportion of them are converts.

I would have thought that applying the legacy companies models to Tesla Model 3 sales is unwise, but here we are...

i’ll say it again, i was blown away when they said half of orders were AWD config.
 
As we move down expectedly to my 290$ target , I'm going to probably buy back the Sept $310 calls (sold at 31$) for target 5.5$ (maybe lower), and re-sell an Oct 300$ for 20$. After getting to $290 (or lower) and if we can bounce back up close to $300 by mid next week (probably won't tick over) I may re-sell Sept 300$ again (price would probably be 15-18) instead of the Oct strike.

My new short term tgt is to re-test the 282-285$ lvls.

* lng 300
 
i’ll say it again, i was blown away when they said half of orders were AWD config.
I think there MAY be a small disproportionate percentage made for Canada which I think Tesla was really trying to service in order to get in before large tax credits/rebates expired. I think there was a legal case made that the province had unexpectadly shortened the window/cut off for the tax credit and all these Tesla buyers were going to be left without the credit. I would expect that a disproportionate amount of Canadian orders are almost all AWD overall.
 
i’ll say it again, i was blown away when they said half of orders were AWD config.

I don't think it should be surprising at this point. The whole western corporate world has been in a race to the bottom for so long, everything tends to think that price is the limiting factor when in fact it's the offering. Even Toyota didn't learn after Prius ate into sales of their Lexus line.

To me it seems most of the world is wrongheaded has it wrong at this point, the future is not Mad Max, the future is Star Trek. You just have to build it.
 
Bottleneck. You keep using that word but I'm not sure you know what it means. In my view Tesla are pretty good at matching production with deliveries. The real bottleneck here is production, let's be honest about that. Having production growth being the main constraint is better than having demand, financing or delivery capacity being the constraint. After all we're talking about cars and not software here, they consist of many complex parts and lots of matter. Of course production will be the bottleneck as long as there is demand. Trying to grow the delivery capacity in lockstep with production capacity is smart opex wise, if they got ahead of themselves and created an over dimensioned delivery apparatus that was sitting around waiting for cars from the factory wringing their thumbs that would be a waste of resources - not running a tight ship financially. Listen to Deepak's recurring comments on the earning calls about cash management and discipline and you'll better understand their thinking on these issues. Warning: it might not fit well with your prior assumptions.
Take time to read the threads here and on M3OC. You will find several examples of people arriving to pick up their M3 only to find the car is the wrong color. There are many others of cars being refused by the delivery center personnel and insisting the customer be assigned another VIN. In those instances, I agree the culprit is flawed production. But many of the stated mistakes are on the delivery staff, from the ISA on down to the center personnel. These flubs should not be happening. Based on the list of Tesla openings they are way behind the power curve on PDI techs and delivery personnel. Now is when these oversights are costing Tesla sales every day.

Optimal inventory control is a very delicate balance between production and deliveries. It requires constant tweaking just like controlling the throttles on an airplane for maximum range and efficiency. New car dealers and manufacturers face this every day. During my days as a dealer, my first meeting every morning was with my inventory manager, looking not only at what was already on the ground but also what we knew was coming our way in the pipeline. The next meeting with my sales managers was looking at ways to keep the flow of sales moving to make room for the new arrivals. Losing control of your inventory is the fastest way to destroy a dealership.

IMHO Tesla until recently has been way too focused on production and not enough on the flip side of the coin; deliveries. If Tesla fails to produce a meaningful profit in Q3, this will be the main reason. There are plenty of cars sitting waiting to be delivered so lack of inventory is not the problem.
 
The problem with bottlenecks (funnily enough, a topic that we're now talking about more than the short-faced bears over on SA) is that unless you're at max production, there's always a bottleneck. Fix that bottleneck? Now something else is a bottleneck. Sometimes multiple things at once. Tesla has repeatedly cycled through bottlenecks as each time they fix one thing, something else comes in. First it was frame welding automation. Then the big long-term problems with battery pack production. Then paint shop. Then general assembly. Then paint shop again. Occasionally its been suppliers limiting them. Now they're hitting up against Giga's cell production limits - not sure whether that or paint is currently the limit. Things will just keep switching, and that's inevitable during scaleup.

Interestingly, I've never heard of stamping or plastics being a bottleneck. I guess Tesla has that part down ;)
 
With all the current regulatory investigations on-going with Tesla - NHTSA, SEC, OSHA, etc. It certainly would be nice if some of these government bodies would conclude their investigations. For some, it seems like more than a year they've been investigating on a single incident. I think this kind of stuff helps drag the share price down and gives the FUDster's a stage with a mic. It would be nice to have some good news from these agencies reading out prior to 3Q numbers in early October.
 
  • Like
Reactions: wipster
Take time to read the threads here and on M3OC. You will find several examples of people arriving to pick up their M3 only to find the car is the wrong color. There are many others of cars being refused by the delivery center personnel and insisting the customer be assigned another VIN. In those instances, I agree the culprit is flawed production. But many of the stated mistakes are on the delivery staff, from the ISA on down to the center personnel. These flubs should not be happening. Based on the list of Tesla openings they are way behind the power curve on PDI techs and delivery personnel. Now is when these oversights are costing Tesla sales every day.

Optimal inventory control is a very delicate balance between production and deliveries. It requires constant tweaking just like controlling the throttles on an airplane for maximum range and efficiency. New car dealers and manufacturers face this every day. During my days as a dealer, my first meeting every morning was with my inventory manager, looking not only at what was already on the ground but also what we knew was coming our way in the pipeline. The next meeting with my sales managers was looking at ways to keep the flow of sales moving to make room for the new arrivals. Losing control of your inventory is the fastest way to destroy a dealership.

IMHO Tesla until recently has been way too focused on production and not enough on the flip side of the coin; deliveries. If Tesla fails to produce a meaningful profit in Q3, this will be the main reason. There are plenty of cars sitting waiting to be delivered so lack of inventory is not the problem.

The plural of anecdote is not data. Data is data.

Tesla Model 3 Owners Survey
 
It is all just pain caused by one person: Mr Elon Musk and his Twitter account and his interview to NYM

all the more reason to step into positions. yes i complained about it too. and my options have been decimated. my stock is fine because i leg into on ongoing basis. that’s old news now. time to move forward, and play the next scenario. the key is to be able to keep playing
 
Yes, you are confused. That was not what I said. I said the majority, not "all".

But according to @beachbum77, the most likely cause for the majority of you, the Europeans and Chinese waiting is that you want the $35,000... I'm confused... Does he have some inside source, is he applying a magical model, is he doing some extrapolation...? I mean, I know it's a possibility, but from contemplating it as possible to be 100% certain about it there's a big jump, isn't it? But what do I know...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.