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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I have no "cause". I just want people to know the facts as I have seen them for myself and taken photos on the lots. I am one of the people that reports numbers to Bloomberg. Have been doing so since they created the report

Why are you posting here instead of livestreaming from the lot where Tesla holds all their Model 3's? Go take your evidence to the SEC, maybe they'll care.
 
probably starting 70-80K. USD
This is nice
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Hundreds of thousands of refundable reservations, but at what price point were they expecting to buy? Certainly, most are waiting for the $35,000 model.
Contradicted by data. Surveys say 2/3 want to buy the long-range model. I see no reason to disbelieve the surveys, and it matches with the Model S experience.
 
Will it have a supercharger network and will I have to haggle with a dealer to get a fair price?

No thanks, I'll buy a Tesla many times over just on the purchasing experience alone.
Not to mention that it seems like the Tesla battery and powertrain are probably a generation or two ahead of what you'll buy from the new entrants. Thats why I would head to Tesla first over the others. Fit and finish can probably be easily fixed as time goes on, but the drive motors and battery tech needs to be right. Long TSLA.
 
Just a data point: my wife and I got our Model 3 reservation on March 31, 2016 and have gotten several invites from Tesla to order, which we ignored. We're gonna keep sitting on the reservation for a while still. It's not that we're waiting for the $35K version, it's to wait for Tesla's production hell phase to quiet down. We're in no rush to get the 3, and I figure every day we wait, the 3 gets better and the company gets better at making/delivering/servicing it. We'll pick up our 3 eventually, but no mad rush here.

One influencer no doubt is the fact that my 2013 S is on its 5th drive unit,
You drive a lot, eh? Basically the number of drive unit replacement is connected to how many miles you drove before the "P" revision of the drivertrain was released, since I haven't heard of a single replacement since that revision was released.

has had two complete heating system failures (both in winter, of course) and a full replacement of the heating system,
You're the only person I've ever heard of with a heating system failure.
three or four chargeport replacements, a complete charging system component chain replacement,
These were pretty common. I'm not sure what went wrong with the chargeport design but I hope they got it fixed by now.

a battery replacement, a seat replacement, random piece of factory metal loose and jangling in the steering wheel shaft removal (apparently a one-of-a-kind problem even Tesla Service was impressed with), and countless other factory issues. Still, I'm up to 89000 blissful miles on the car. Meanwhile the 3 would be my wife's new car. She isn't as forgiving nor as "early adopter" as I have been with the S. So we will wait until the 3 is stable to reduce our chances of problems.
They do say "never buy the first year of a new model" if you don't want to have problems. We're not very far into the second year of Model 3 yet (and if you count the first few months as preproduction, we aren't there at all).

Oh, also, living in a state with the reputation as the most anti-Tesla state in the union, with the auto dealer mob blocking Tesla from opening any service centers and stores, meaning if the Tesla needs major service it has to be towed 8 hours away, also might be a factor. :)
Yeah. I'm only 5 hours away and it already is an issue. I would wait in your position too.
 
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If Troy would post the known facts in his spreadsheet you would have them, but he will not post the number waiting for the SR until it becomes available.

It is a well-known rule of thumb in the auto industry that for every $5,000 of increased price you cut demand in half. It is impossible that more people are waiting for a $50k or $60k Model 3 than a $35,000 Model 3. You can easily see this in Troy's spreadsheet by looking at the number of non-performance versus performance orders.
That "rule of thumb" simply does not apply to battery size increases, which has been proven repeatedly by the various variants of Models S and X. People pay for range.
 
At this point in time here in the U.S. I would agree. Most of the RWD units have already been delivered. What remains in the LR order pool are AWD and P cars. It also makes sense that a large percentage of the LR cars will ultimately be AWD. Most parts of the U.S. deal with snow and or ice in winter. If you are already going to spend $50,000 for a Model 3, adding $4k for AWD makes good sense for resale value. Whether AWD will be as popular in a $35,000 SR model remains to be seen.
I live in Nebraska and worked at a dealership as a sales agent and I guarantee AWD in the $35k version will be popular in the top half of the US. I sold those small SUVs like RAV4 etc and everyone wants AWD. If you had a sedan, same rules apply. Ppl require it for snow. I would say something like possibly as high as 80 or 90 percent will want AWD. I don't even think we ordered non AWD for those small SUVs like RAV4.
 
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The problem with bottlenecks (funnily enough, a topic that we're now talking about more than the short-faced bears over on SA) is that unless you're at max production, there's always a bottleneck. Fix that bottleneck? Now something else is a bottleneck. Sometimes multiple things at once. Tesla has repeatedly cycled through bottlenecks as each time they fix one thing, something else comes in. First it was frame welding automation. Then the big long-term problems with battery pack production. Then paint shop. Then general assembly. Then paint shop again. Occasionally its been suppliers limiting them. Now they're hitting up against Giga's cell production limits - not sure whether that or paint is currently the limit. Things will just keep switching, and that's inevitable during scaleup.

Interestingly, I've never heard of stamping or plastics being a bottleneck. I guess Tesla has that part down ;)
No, he mentioned stamping once as one of the not-quite-rate-limiting steps. I think it got fixed before it became the primary bottleneck.
 
That "rule of thumb" simply does not apply to battery size increases, which has been proven repeatedly by the various variants of Models S and X. People pay for range.
The rule of thumb would generally apply though, most ppl are constrained by a budget. We shouldn't dismiss this sort of info out of hand since it is proven statistically. I've heard that even as small as $1k price differences significantly can increase or decrease market share for cars. So if you go from $35k to $30k yu get more and more market share. That said, I think Tesla could charge such premiums since it's the latest and greatest that they generally sell $40k and up for quite awhile.
 
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I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great
Mike just hang in there. You will probably gain some or most of it back as we approach Q3. I've traded call options and bought Tesla stock for a long time...and you can have a $10, $20, $30 increase or decrease in share price in 1 day. I buy calls with long expiration so I have plenty of time for Tesla to rise, etc. If you own stock you're in even better position since you just wait out the FUD.
 
I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great

It’s only a paper loss until you sell.

I wish I was only down 10k. Another poster is down over 500k.

But I’m not worried because I plan on holding for years.
 
That "rule of thumb" simply does not apply to battery size increases, which has been proven repeatedly by the various variants of Models S and X. People pay for range.
And, I mean, that rule of thumb doesn't work in the ICE space, either.

If it did, the Mitsubishi Mirage, Chevy Spark, and Nissan Versa would be the three best selling vehicles in the US market by far. (All three can be had new for under $10k. Seriously.)
 
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I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great

dude, maybe you need to get a different perspective on life and investing (i dont mean that in a bashing context). Sell your TSLA, put your $ in index funds and go find a hobby. you obviously dont have the stomach for volatile stocks.
 
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