TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

Starting this month NEDC had been replaced by WLTP. They have known about it for a long time and still chose to use the old deprecated standard.

Interesting. They say they will continue using NEDC for sales purposes until 2020, but that starting Sep 2017 all newly developed vehicles and vehicles with new powertrains will be certified under WLTP. So is the EQC not developed since Sep 2017? Or does it have an older powertrain? If not, why aren't they following their own statements and including WLTP?

src: What are NEDC and WLTP? And how do they differ?

I do find it amusing that their own page takes a hard swipe at NEDC and yet that is their basis for marketing the EQC...

 

[Tslynk67]

it is called mud slinging. You throw all kind of crap hoping that some will stick. Forget about "there is no smoke without fire" thing. If there is something you will hear in the same day from all major mass-media.
The level of revenue Tesla has give them ability to load short-term debt well beyond their current levels.

But they don't have to. all these "kaka-lators" comparing Tesla to ordinary car companies forget two major things. Vertical integration, battery production included and direct sells. Both factors make them unique in USA.

Sure, but can anyone give me something more concrete to counter the FUD?

 

[oneday]

In InsideEVs, EVs numbers will start coming out tomorrow, but different brands will be reported at different days/times. Tesla unofficial sales numbers in US could be released any time Wed/Thu/Fri.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

"August 2018 EV SALES will be reported on Wednesday, September 5, 2018, beginning with Toyota Prius Prime and Nissan LEAF sales at 6:30-7:30 AM PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET) and continuing with Ford and other automakers into the remainder of the week."

Prius prime, Nissan leaf, BMW i3 and a few others are already up. They are actually quite disappointing. Not sure why these massive incumbents can't come up with compelling ev's. Maybe the Bolt will surprise to the upside but I'm doubtful.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

well, yes, i’m never all in either. i continually add
which is the point i’m trying to make to mike117

I wasn’t all in at 244– I had one shot of dry powder left in case it dropped into the 230s— but I was awfully close. Made it easy not to be tempted to buy at 355.

 

[Quassinoid]

Prius prime, Nissan leaf, BMW i3 and a few others are already up. They are actually quite disappointing. Not sure why these massive incumbents can't come up with compelling ev's. Maybe the Bolt will surprise to the upside but I'm doubtful.

"They are actually quite disappointing. " -> That's because everyone is buying a M3 instead!

 

[dondy]

Sure, but can anyone give me something more concrete to counter the FUD?

It's impossible. That's the beauty of mud slinging.
They hold no responsibility for false statements, so if you rebut one, they just generate 10 more. More of it you will be hold responsible for your answers, so if you make a mistake however small one it will be blown out of water and used to discredit you.
On the other side if you discredit one source, another will come in his place. In current legal and professional climate media trolls and "experts" are free to generate any opinion however wrong or ofensive. You won't be able to hold them responsible.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Here's another owners survey: Model 3 Order Tracker #1 (Troy: There are a few identical files to avoid overcrowding)

• 62% had defects in the first 30 days of ownership
• 47% had AT LEAST one visit to the service center in the first 30 days
• 20% were out of service AT LEAST one day in the 30 days

Which all sounds really scary until you realize n=223

That's 30 more responses than the survey linked that I quoted...

If 193 responses is sufficient for @KarenRei , then 223 should be even better, no?

 

[carterm2]

So Goldman Sachs says sell Tesla, likely to drop 30 per cent in 6 months...

So this is pretty much playing with inside information acquired by being employed by Tesla to go private...

How is this legal?

Excuse me but WTF. What does GS provide as proof for this prediction? Information gained from Musk’s go private BS?

Someone buying three M3s is not going to help the SP when Tesla and Musk can’t do a better job of protecting the company in the media, on Wall Street and on (preferably off) Twitter.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

On the short side, I think it's weird the number of media headlines that focus on Goldman Sachs' Tesla coverage?

Didn't they just reinstate the same PT they had before they swapped to NR? There can't possibly be any new information in there, right?

So Goldman Sachs says sell Tesla, likely to drop 30 per cent in 6 months...

So this is pretty much playing with inside information acquired by being employed by Tesla to go private...

How is this legal?

Excuse me but WTF. What does GS provide as proof for this prediction? Information gained from Musk’s go private BS?

Someone buying three M3s is not going to help the SP when Tesla and Musk can’t do a better job of protecting the company in the media, on Wall Street and on (preferably off) Twitter.

I read it as "Goldman Sachs didn't receive any material information."

They were retained for what? Less than two weeks? Getting contracts signed, analysts assigned, and legal review takes longer than that.

 

[Do It]

I like to buy a non Tesla car right now at 49 K price tag with similar spec as Model 3 with nationwide supercharger network at every 150 miles, Can I ?, No, Will it be possible in 2 years , I highly doubt it, bring it on competition.

Exactly!

When Bolt first came out, FUDsters made a lot of noise but now we know how it turned out. EQC, e-tron, I-pace will be no different. I am not saying this because I am a "fanboy" but based on facts:
1. tsla is 2-3 generations ahead on electric powertrain. This gives tsla at least 10%-20% more range with the same KWH battery.
2. most of feature differentiation will be software based in the future (e.g. Autopilot, etc.) and tsla is way ahead of other auto makers in software.
3. super charger network.

These "competitions" will be able to sell some (to those who care about grill, buttons, knobs, and how fabric is stitched, etc.) but it won't be at tsla's expense! I see these new EV announcements as net positive for tsla because they will generate more EV awareness and majority of the buyers will choose tesla after competitive shopping.

 

[omarsultan]

That's 30 more responses than the survey linked that I quoted...

If 193 responses is sufficient for @KarenRei , then 223 should be even better, no?

Well, if you believe Bloomberg, that self-selected group represents ~0.26% of Model 3 owners, so you tell me....

 

[MP3Mike]

Didn't they just reinstate the same PT they had before they swapped to NR? There can't possibly be any new information in there, right?

Actually I think the prior target was $195, so he actually increased it to $210 as part of this update.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I hear you: I'll soon be over 50% in $TSLA which worries me a bit.

I'm now at 65% $TSLA in IRA (but wife has the typical 401K managed). Only way I can justify today's buy is that there's no way I won't make a quick $500 when it gets back to $300. When you look at this that way, it's the right move. OK, so now's the bottom right? Just painfully commitment is all.

Whether you think FSD is vaporware or tomorrows download, it's news at a time when Waymo is perceived as being on top. Agree, not the thread to evaluate features, only that it is coming to light and how it will affect price action... soon I believe.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Thanks. I didn't know about NEDC range. That's a huge difference and I can't believe NEDC is allowed.

Regarding the 0-60 time, I made a mistake calling it 0-60, because it should be 0-100km/h. 0-60mph is only 0-96km/h. But, my numbers are accurate. I got my numbers from the Canadian Tesla website, which quotes 5.2 seconds as its 0-100km/h time. Mercedes quoted 5.1s for 0-100km/h in that spec sheet.

Ah, that makes more sense.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Well, if you believe Bloomberg, that self-selected group represents ~0.26% of Model 3 owners, so you tell me....

I don't believe Bloomberg's estimation model, because the calculations that go into that model are public and can be manipulated.

See this thread: TeslaCharts on Twitter

Specifically, this:

 

[humbaba]

Today's price drop appears to be courtesy of re-airing a crash earlier this year. Unless I'm missing something, the only report available is a preliminary one dated June 7, 2018. (Preliminary Report Issued for Investigation of Fatal, Mountain View, California, Tesla Crash)

Unless there is actually new news about this accident, the dredging it up appears to be simply to depress the stock price. I'm assuming the purpose is to reduce the absolute dollar amount of gains made with the upcoming confirmation of Tesla's performance. Naturally, there is no way to confirm or deny the results of such actions.

[lightly edited for clarity]

 

[Do It]

So Goldman Sachs says sell Tesla, likely to drop 30 per cent in 6 months...

So this is pretty much playing with inside information acquired by being employed by Tesla to go private...

How is this legal?

Excuse me but WTF. What does GS provide as proof for this prediction? Information gained from Musk’s go private BS?

Someone buying three M3s is not going to help the SP when Tesla and Musk can’t do a better job of protecting the company in the media, on Wall Street and on (preferably off) Twitter.

I did not read the note but from media coverage, it seems that Tamberrino has dropped his previous FUD about ramp, profit margin, running out of cash, etc. and only mentioned "competition" as the reason. I see this as a positive sign from Tambo .

Among all the FUD, competition is the lest we should worry at this point.

 

[omarsultan]

Oh, come on, dude, even if Bloomberg is off by 50%, that "poll" is still half-of-1% of Model 3 owners and it still suffers from the selection bias issues of any internet poll.

 

[HG Wells]

When only half your order gets executed, do you get bonus points for calling the low for the day ?

 

[Tslynk67]

I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great

So, you're telling me you speculated on the going private saga and you lost-out? That's your risk, nothing to do with Elon.