Xenius
Active Member
Obviously timing the market is silly. And we're only talking a few shares. I've got a couple bucks in a ROTH that is in a money market. Do I wait to buy or just pull the trigger?
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Xenius
Active Member
That's cute, they likely have inside knowledge from the discussion now and are trying to push SP low to buy in before the pop. That kind of *sugar* should be illegal.
As far as range their actual numbers say ~360km, vs. their stated >450km. (Both of which are using a deprecated standard that way over estimates the range.) What range estimate standard did you use for the Model X? (Or are you comparing apples and oranges?)
A Model X 75D is 4.9 0-60.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I guess Elon lost the battle against Shorts... No more Twitter comments from him making fun of them or posting bullish news... Makes me worried
Probably not.
Maybe too many of the long-term buyers are out of dry powder
Momentum traders like tivoboy are bearish right now.
But I think it's just the usual nonsense. For long-term accumulators, opportunities we have not seen since the SolarCity merger may be coming up.
The market is going to go nuts when Tesla shows a substantial fourth quarter profit. I am not sure how it will react to the third quarter, but there is no way in hell they ignore the fourth quarter.
SpudLime
Active Member
You mad he isnt giving you FUDster shorts any more ammunition?
mltv
Member
haha. worry when he post. worry when he does not post. me too.
Their range estimate doesn't line up with their own numbers in that same chart. 80kWh(stated battery capacity)/22.2kWh/100km = 360km range. And that's assuming 100% of the capacity of the battery is usable.
That aside, none of your stated numbers for the Model X are accurate. The NEDC range of the Model X 75D is 416km, not 381. 0-60 is 4.9 seconds, not 5.2. You didn't give an efficiency number for the Model X, but your statement there is also incorrect. On a 75kWh battery, the Model X is getting real-world 381km range vs, again, 360km for the EQC, despite its 80kWh battery.
Because they know the mainstream media is clueless about EVs and will simply parrot what they are told. I would imagine some the SP movement today is also due to the belief that mainstream competition for Tesla has arrived.
I thought a scatterplot of analysts' TSLA targets vs their historical performance (Tiprank's rating) might be interesting. Take a look.
77% of the analysts in the top half of analyst performance are neutral to bullish on Tesla at $300.
100% of the analysts in the bottom half of analyst performance are bearish.
Those were all the recommendations I could find (Tiprank doesn't show the latest 5 but I found 2 or 3 of them). If anyone has any more I can add them to the plot.
77% of the analysts in the top half of analyst performance are neutral to bullish on Tesla at $300.
100% of the analysts in the bottom half of analyst performance are bearish.
Those were all the recommendations I could find (Tiprank doesn't show the latest 5 but I found 2 or 3 of them). If anyone has any more I can add them to the plot.
OK. So you're thinking of somewhere in the $270-$283 range as a likely near-term floor, then?
It's pretty clear a lot of people aren't expecting those points, as you can determine by all the lunatics who think Tesla will run out of cash and go bankrupt (there continue to be articles about how Tesla will need to "raise money" in the near term, which AFAICT is blatantly false), or the even loonier people who think Tesla has a demand problem or that vaporware competition will reduce their demand. I figure when the majority of those people realize they've been had (which I peg at Q4 financials, or maybe after Tesla pay the bonds off next March), it's going to change the market structure.
I'm not usually thinking about the near term, of course. I totally believe your pre-Q3 predictions. Why not? Near term isn't my area of expertise, long term is.
Hey, I'm appreciating your projections. If I can time my purchases at a local low, it adds to my later long-term profits quite a lot. So if you're right, I'm gonna get a spectacular buying opportunity and make a mint when Q4 numbers are released.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
No, this is good. He has to mature as a CEO who can let go of meaningless confrontations to maximize the usage of his time.
If you're talking CALENDAR Q4, we won't see that data for a long time. If you're talking corporate Q4, CQ3, I don't see it going to be substantial. Probably will certainly be profitable, but I think they are probably spending considerably more than to plan for production, remediation and delivery in the current quarter. There isn't too much of that which can be moved out into future quarters (with exception of maybe deliveries that are going through third parties-and they could put AP into delays), so it's going to hit current quarter input costs.Probably not.
Maybe too many of the long-term buyers are out of dry powder
Momentum traders like tivoboy are bearish right now.
But I think it's just the usual nonsense. For long-term accumulators, opportunities we have not seen since the SolarCity merger may be coming up.
The market is going to go nuts when Tesla shows a substantial fourth quarter profit. I am not sure how it will react to the third quarter, but there is no way in hell they ignore the fourth quarter.
It will be a GREAT setup though. for CQ4, so position accordingly.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I agree with the frustration, particularly if you can't expand your holdings in $TSLA (personally, I *really* hope that my purchases were from someone shorting $TSLA).
But unless you are planning on dumping as soon as the sp goes above what you paid for it there really doesn't seem to be much to be concerned about: the point where FUD could kill the company by driving down perceived value (the stock price) and thus restricting fund raising options appear to be over with the inevitable positive cash flow.
In the long run the stock pretty much has to go up and, as has previously been observed here, the longer it is depressed the greater the velocity when the spring gets released. I don't think *really* high stock prices are going to happen in the near term, but it is hard to conceive they can keep the sp depressed this much through the end of year and it is laughable to think it could be held down for a whole year.
I'm in it for the long haul and am enjoying the low prices this action is giving me since I wasn't aware of the whole Tesla situation early enough to get in before.
[edited for stupid typo]
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I take that as a very encouraging sign that he is burying his ego and change his behavior on Twitter.
It is illegal but it's well documented that it happens all the time and it's basically impossible to prove, so it never gets prosecuted. They have clever ways of doing it: for instance, you want to bring the stock price down, you *deliberately hire someone* who you *know* will be pessimistic; you don't have to give them any information they're not supposed to have, but you (the boss doing the hiring) knows what they're going to say in advance.
Yep. Nothing succeeds like financial results, and those of us who are following the company closely know that financial results are coming.
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