TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

Heh, my buy yesterday went through. Albeit not with a lot of wiggle room Really wish I had had my "dry powder" available then; I don't expect another such great opportunity any time soon, and that was only a "drain the checking account" buy (6 shares). Why do international wire transfers have to take so long? :Þ

NSA needs time to read them?

 

[winfield100]

Meh, one can rip down the "competition hypothesis" far better than that. Tesla makes more batteries than everyone else combined, and is growing it faster - 30% capacity increase by the end of the year alone. How are they supposed to make a competitive volume of EVs without a competitive volume of batteries?

Announced "competitor" volumes are correspondingly tiny. Kona, 18,6k/yr. Niro, 21k/yr. I-Pace, E-Tron and Taycan, 10-30k/yr. This isn't even going to keep up with the global growth in EV demand, let alone "kill Tesla". And many are getting delayed.

Excepting the Taycan, they all charge at a tiny fraction of the speed (mph/kph) of Teslas. People who know nothing of EVs obsess over range as the only stat that matters, but in the real world buyers want "enough" range for their daily life, and once they have that, charge speed replaces range as the parameter of interest. Teslas are "charge while you eat a meal" cars, while the others (excepting Taycan) are "charge while you catch a short movie" cars. There's a massive practicality difference.

Furthermore, they all charge from a poorly maintained, patchwork network that's many years behind Tesla. This isn't some sort of pro-Tesla hype; even most people whose cars use CCS concede this. Check out Plugshare and click through CCS stations and note the disturbingly high minority of stations that are down - often the only charger at a site. And these disjoint networks usually have their own unique payment and/or membership requirements, making travel all the more difficult. This is the disaster you get when you (as an automaker) abrogate responsibility for recharging the vehicles that you manufacture.

And meanwhile? Tesla is anything but stationary. They're a rapidly moving target.

The "competition hypothesis" keeps failing year-after-year (despite how firmly the shorts keep believing in it) because they fail to understand these facts.

@KarenRei kWh Batteries in 2018, Tesla vs Europe + rest of US + Toyota + etc
The vast majority of the time it takes 10-15 seconds to charge, just plug in and walk away and do "other things"

 

[CorneliusXX]

Fred is immature and never should have been given the stature that he received. And yes, he's even getting almost Business Insider-y sometimes. Who would have thought that Electrek of all places would be jumping on the "Make News Out Of Every Tesla Fire" bandwagon?

He's only gotten worse since Musk unfollowed him on Twitter.

As my petty revenge I've decided to turn ad blocker back on for electrek until they stop being so snarky.

 

[Krugerrand]

As my petty revenge I've decided to turn ad blocker back on for electrek until they stop being so snarky.

I see your ad blocker and call all in with a not visiting the site for the next 365 days AND telling all my friends/family to follow suit.

 

[KarenRei]

There could be several hundred thousand Model 3's in North America within next couple of years.....many of which will travel beyond their home charging apparatus.

Thus, I view Tesla's SC network as a future cash cow (ie similar to Apple's APP Store) that right now is severely underestimated by Wall Street.

There's another aspect to the above that I forgot to mention. Billing for high power feeds for commercial and industrial customers isn't like that for home customers. In addition to the cost of the power, every month you're hit with "demand charges", which are very expensive, and based on the peak power (kW) drawn by the customer during that month.

Let's say for example that your utility's demand charges are $10/kW and you have a supercharger out in Podunk, Idaho which nobody uses. Let's say it has only two chargers and 4 stalls, which is pretty much the minimum size Tesla makes (with apart from rare exceptions). Let's say your daily usage varies from 0 people charging to several people charging - on average one person charging per day on average 60kWh, but once a month you'll probably have both chargers in use during a "busy time", feeding two stalls. So they each feed 117kW, maybe drawing 130kW from the grid each, or 260kW at that moment in time. So that cements your demand fees for the month at $2600. Meanwhile that month you've sold 1800kWh of electricity. Congratulations, your demand fees alone amass to $1,40 per kWh.

There are two ways around this:

1) Powerpacks. The longer the period of time you can spread the load around, the lower the peak you have to draw from the grid. Of course, that means more capital costs.

2) Better utilization. Sell more kWh = divide the demand charges among more kWh = shrink the per-kWh demand cost until it's no longer a problem. 60kWh/day is a less than 1% utilization rate. Jump up to 10% utilization (assuming this raises peak demand to ~320kW) and demand fees are $0,15/kWh. Jump up to 30% utilization and demand fees are $0,05/kWh.

#2 is key to turning existing superchargers from loss leaders to self-sustaining, if not profit centres.

 

[X Fan]

Any indication of timescale?

Not yet.....I may ping the dealer next week to see what they are telling clients.....

 

[winfield100]

View attachment 333030
Just received an email (lame btw) from an Audi of Naples sales rep stating that the e-Tron reservation window will open on September 17th.

IMO, the Mercedes unveiling was a bust and should have no impact to TSLA price....I wonder if Audi's product will have a similar or negative impact to SP (albeit short lived once Tesla's quarterly results are unveiled).

Thoughts?

btw: I'm "overjoyed" & lol at his "THANK GOODNESS" comment......

wowsers, just did a test drive of a Tesla M 3 performance w/ autopilot in Naples Friday PM.
Smoked a couple of BMW and mercedes on rt 41 accidentally

 

[X Fan]

And in other news...

https://jalopnik.com/ford-recalls-2-million-f-150s-over-seat-belt-fire-risk-1828853976

...and Tesla has quality issues? Really?

Dan

and don't forget the oft noted quality king, Toyota, with their million car recall this week too...:Toyota to recall 1 million Prius hybrid models over fire risk

 

[X Fan]

wowsers, just did a test drive of a Tesla M 3 performance w/ autopilot in Naples Friday PM.
Smoked a couple of BMW and mercedes on rt 41 accidentally

I thought I saw a blur on 41 coming past me.......

btw: was it still raining....if so, how was traction?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

@KarenRei kWh Batteries in 2018, Tesla vs Europe + rest of US + Toyota + etc
The vast majority of the time it takes 10-15 seconds to charge
View attachment 333128

10-15 *minutes. My car rarely even gets past the “Starting to charge...” phase in 10-15 seconds...

 

[Boomer19]

Wow, a lot of sound logic and common sense in that video. That apology to Toni last earnings-call paid dividends!

And a new day, Gene has his COO.

what video ?

 

[winfield100]

I thought I saw a blur on 41 coming past me.......

btw: was it still raining....if so, how was traction?

rain was heading in from SSE, made it back to store just as started.
accelerated from both ~35 and ~50, by flooring it, complaints from spouse about "Slow the &^%$ down!" accompanied by giggles.
autopilot is rock steady

 

[winfield100]

10-15 *minutes. My car rarely even gets past the “Starting to charge...” phase in 10-15 seconds...

to elaborate, since 11/30/2014, i plug the PHEV in, it takes 10-15 seconds, then i would go to work, or into the house, some random time later it would be full of usable electrons.......

 

[MarcusMaximus]

to elaborate, since 11/30/2014, i plug the PHEV in, it takes 10-15 seconds, then i would go to work, or into the house, some random time later it would be full of usable electrons.......

Ah, fair. Make that ~3 seconds for me.

Of course, this doesn’t apply to road trips. Which I find myself doing much more often than with any prior car.

Actually, this is a good argument against EV’s: sure, at home you can just plug in, but you’re going to be stuck supercharging all the time because road trips in them are so damn fun.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I've been following and investing in Tesla since late '12 (M3 owner in '18) and I have never been this confident in Tesla and Elon's leadership. Tesla has surpassed my wildest expectations and I remain extremely positive for the future of EVs, Tesla (and TSLA), and life on Earth.

Debunked arguments:
1) Tesla can't build EVs.
2) Tesla can't build EVs of good quality.
3) Tesla can't build EVs at scale.
4) Tesla can't build EVs at a profit.
There is nothing left for the non-believers to grasp on to, except for their attempt to assassinate the character of Mr. Musk, which is now underway. Many pro-Tesla supporters are giving in to the constant negative drivel that is spewed from mass paid media. Don't give in to the FUD. Tesla has already won, having accelerated EV adoption by the big autos by ten years, and Tesla is on the verge of becoming the greatest company on Earth.

I believe EVs will dominate the auto and truck industry in the near future.
I believe Tesla will continue to be a major player in the EV market which is expanding exponentially.
I believe the big ICE auto manufacturers are still five years away from mass producing a comparable EV, and wish they would get on board sooner as every EV produced, regardless of manufacturer will support the EV mission.
I believe in the future of humanity and Mother Earth.
I believe.

With TSLA as a significant holding of my family's personal wealth, day-to-day fluctuations in TSLA do concern me, however as stated above I have never been this confident in Tesla. I wouldn't give up my M3 for any car in the World. The future is here and the future is ours. Embrace it. Thanks to all employees at Tesla, their suppliers and financial backers, and special thanks to Elon for making this happen. What a ride!

Daniel

 

[Fact Checking]

what video ?

It was embedded in the comment - here's a clickable link to Tony Sacconaghi's video.

BTW., the "Elon's a douche" character attack died a fiery death during the CC and during the Joe Rogan interview.

 

[Hogfighter]

Super non-scientific data point. The highest VIN seen by the end of June was 49xxx. The highest seen as of today is 106xxx, with 3 weeks to go.

For the mathematically challenged, that 57,000 3’s, or an average of 5,700 3’s per week so far in Q3. Of course, they could have been hiding higher # VINs to keep from going over 200,000 cars in Q2, but surely not more than 5,000.

 

[aubreymcfato]

@KarenRei kWh Batteries in 2018, Tesla vs Europe + rest of US + Toyota + etc
The vast majority of the time it takes 10-15 seconds to charge, just plug in and walk away and do "other things"
View attachment 333128

This is exactly the kind of content you should also post on Twitter ;-)

 

[bluetrue]

I think Electrek's production numbers are correct, but I also think that the "smashing records" tweet and Elon's letter about doubling production are correct as well. I think there was a breakthrough in production this week. There's a reason Elon decided to finally go on Rogan. He originally said that he wouldn't go on Rogan until production had stabilized at 5k. I think they've had trouble stabilizing at 5k, but this week maybe they had a breakthrough with the last remaining bottleneck and now they can do 5.5 - 6k, which will give them a shot at doubling production from last quarter, even if Electrek's numbers are correct.

 

[davecolene0606]

Yep, the question is whether his judgment is getting worse or if it's always been like this.

I feel a great disturbance in the force...

C’mon Dave, fundamentals man, fundamentals...

Fire,Away!