TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Priigoat]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share price losses?

 

[defc0n]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share price losses?

At the moment I have little doubt of there being lots of FUD from now and continuing into 2019. Q3 will be considered a special one off event by bears.

I only know there will be continued volatility . I’m only expecting a sharp rise following Q3 delivery news, followed by a sharp drop. Probably the same for Q3 earnings.

I will also probably end up selling too early .

 

[RobStark]

Just look at the US automakers circa 2004-2007, persistent sales declines of 5-8% were enough to perennially put them in the red for billions.

Detroit Automakers can withstand 5-8% reduction in yearly sedan and crossover sales. Segments where Tesla currently competes in.

What they can't withstand is annual 5-8% reduction on pickup and body on frame SUV sales.

In that sense they may be the last eaten by the Tesla bear vs European and Asian automakers. Even though most sales for Asian makes are less expensive sedans and crossovers most of their profits are from $30k plus sedans and crossovers.

I used to think the Asian automakers were the safest from Tesla because they mostly competed in price brackets significantly below Tesla but it may be that Tesla is and increasingly will conquer their most profitable sales too.

 

[winfield100]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share price losses?

I suspect the price will fluctuate, based on the Average True range for 2018, somewhere between $12 and $20 per day, or more, if you do a 2 standard deviation envelop then as much as $23 or as little as $7, though I suspect higher over the next month

If you follow the Accumulation/Distribution line and money flow index, they __seem__ to say that money is flowing out, but people are accumulating cheaper shares.

If you follow the "psychic sentiment index" which is a "guestimate"/best guess, /spider that crawls the internet for negative articles

(Note the peak negative articles on 9/7 that correlates with the downdraft and rule 201 invocation)
looks like a creshendo that day, but shorts may be getting exhausted, which has been said before
How much FUD can the media make?

Personally, i'm leaning towards upwards, but, eh, who nose? The shadow nose

 

[Off Shore]

If we think short's and the FUD spinners are bad with Tesla....imagine what happens when the legacy car company basically says no more dividend and we are going to loose massive amounts of cash while we change from only building a few EV's to going all in.

The doomsayers will have a field day. All the internet word warriors will go insane.
So instead they will sell as many ICE car's as they can while offering some cute or not so cute small batch EV's

The Mrket share will continue to drop ....they will announce...O I don't know....stop building cars (Ford except one the mustang)
Or here is our EV ...look it "shares" a lot of feature's with our ICE ( MB)

I really would not like to be the one to look the emperor in the eye and say..."your forked"

This is possibly a good time to mention again that only one carriage maker, Studebaker, managed to survive into the ICE era. While the present situation is different (there were no multi-billion-dollar carriage works with millions of shareholders), the incumbents face huge challenges, and not all of them are going to survive.

Edit: Keep leaving words out.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share price losses?

Best case scenario $444 by November 2018
Worst case scenario low to mid $300s
It all depends on how fast we move up this coming week
Shorts seem to be losing the grip on price action and I strongly suspect bulls ready to seize control

 

[sdtslafan]

I've been looking at Dana Hull's twitter account...yes, I know, that makes me PATHETIC.

But she's been retweeting a lot of positive customer comments about Tesla. Funny how losers can change course so quickly when they realize they were fighting for the wrong side...

And now she's tweeting Elon with questions, sorry Dana, Elon wouldn't come near you with a 10 foot pole.

Edit: I guess writing an article including an animation of Elon burning cash with a flame thrower can burn bridges.

 

[RABaby]

You sound very optimistic. In your world, everybody that is not buying TSLA today is stupid

Perhaps those not buying are not necessarily stupid but those who are selling TSLA short are suicidal.
Let's rejoice in their quick, painful demise.

 

[neroden]

Wot, you're that writer bloke, neroden?

No, no, no. Not at all. (If he ever sells his car, I'll buy it.)

I'm just saying I didn't want purple cars until I met my girlfriend (20 years ago) who would have everything in purple if she could.

 

[Thekiwi]

Axios mentions in passing in its most recent piece that Tesla has raised $19 Billion (through equity and debt) - and links to a dodgy Forbes post from April that seems to include the authors $5 Billion future estimate of Tesla debt raises in 2018 (which is obviously false)

Can anyone tell me the correct figure - or better yet complain to Axios on Twitter.

What Lehman wrought

 

[RABaby]

No, no, no. Not at all.

I'm just saying I didn't want purple cars until I met my girlfriend, who would have everything in purple if she could.

You're not the pedo guy, are you?

 

[humbaba]

I hate to bring NIO back into this thread but there will of course be inevitable comparisons. I disagree with this author as to what makes NIO "special" as opposed to Tesla: Stop Calling Nio the Chinese Tesla: It Has a MUCH Brighter Future

I found the article interesting (though I still only skimmed) and, while one could debate which thread to post a response in, I think that as this is comparing the Nio business to Tesla it has relevance here.

I think the primary thesis (stop comparing Nio to Tesla) is a very accurate assessment and underscores why I had no interest in them beyond their second day of trading. For example:

1. Of the two, only Tesla's CEO is the constant subject of ad hominem attacks ("Elon Musk is running Tesla with all the intellectual rigor of a fifth grader")

2. Of the two, only Tesla is providing broad competency (Nio is outsourcing damn near everything, including the car)

3. Of the two, only Tesla has a track record of striving for better ("for reasons that are still unclear to me, Tesla broke up with Mobileye in 2016, depriving Tesla of the lidar expertise")

I found the last point particularly telling. It takes about 30 seconds to find out why Tesla ditched Mobileye and lidar going to cameras and radar.

By comparison, when Uber killed a woman they made some noise about having their observers pay more attention, but then just went back to business as usual. There is absolutely no indication that they had a meaningful lessons learned from the incident, no shift in their methodology or technology to show that they placed a high enough value on that woman's life to push themselves to find a *better* methodology or technology. It appears to have been categorized as "cost of business".

Nio is positioning themselves as a competitor to Waymo, or Uber or GM Cruise -- not to Tesla. So, here I agree with the author, stop comparing Nio to Tesla.

 

[RABaby]

@ASRI11 I have to ask how you could rate that post as informative? It was a joke. Maybe sarcasm doesn't translate well You don't think I was accusing a member here of being some sort of pervert do you? Especially since he recognized it as a joke in rating it as funny.
Ordinarily I accept a rating for what it is, but in this particular case, I suppose I need to be clear.

 

[guidooo]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

I'm not the expert, but i don't see a reason why we shouldn't end Q3 at a share price similar to where the price was just after Q2 results were released (let's say the price point at august 2, $350).

 

[winfield100]

Where do you guys think will TSLA be trading in the next 4 weeks before and after the release of the Q3 results?

Will we be able to achieve a new all-time high? Or is there still too much FUD going on? Is there even the possibility of a negative perception of the Q3 results leading to share price losses?

to further answer your question, based on a, to me, hysterically funny article from (ick) Seeking Alpha, (the author has an extremely dry wit and certain "outlier" indicators like Elon options
1) "......there appears to be some indication that Tesla institutional investors may be affected by Elon Musk’s personal charisma, good or bad. To estimate the potential link, I further correlated institutional holdings with a tweeter score which measures the Tesla sentiment on Tweeter (Thomson Reuters). The correlation suggests that for every 1% increase in tweeter sentiment, institutions will increase 150,000 shares of holding. As the Tesla sentiment score has fluctuated between -15% and +15%, and current score is close to -15%, a recent low (after the go-private deal fell through). It stands to reason that the Elon Musk sentiment score should rise and help institutions participate in the future capital raise."
ie, institutions will soon (or are) buy LOTS of shares (-15% to 0% = institutions buying appx 2.25 million shares, boosting the stock price just a tad bit)

2) "..whenever Tesla made an additional 100 cars, institutions increased their holdings 184,000 shares. Or, for every 1% Tesla’s stock is overvalued, institutional holding was reduced by 730,000 shares. To no one’s surprise, the number of cars that Tesla has produced is the most dominating factor over topline revenue,.."
"...weekly Tesla institutional holdings in terms of percentage and shares for the period of 2012-2018 (Bloomberg).."

SO, to simplify, Elon Tweet index has nowhere to go but up, and that causes _institutions_ to buy, and as Tesla produces more vehicles institutions also buy, a double whammy for shortz

and stock prices will go up (Look at the A/D line again)
(it will soon like the GCU "Sleeper Service" is boosting for the Excession)

 

[dmunjal]

BMW declared a while ago that "EV owner want that their cars are recognized as an EV". I wonder where this false information is coming from. They obviously did surveys and they did them wrong. I believe that EV owner want a good looking car but not something that looks like from a SF movie. If you look at the i3 or I8 you can say that maybe a portion from the design comes from the carbon fibre material decision but there is in my view a complete misinterpretation what a consumer wants and BMW seems not to listen.

People do not need a futuristic design but a car that just works well and has great specs. I like the range they announced above 400 miles although I have strong doubts that they know how to make that happen. Maybe its a bet on the solid state battery that a lot of manufacturers here hope will come to market and be a game change. I doubt that and believe the Lithium Batteries have still a lot of improvement if not most still in them and it will be the technology that replaces ICEs in the next 2 decades.

If BMW takes the iNext design and brings it to the market they will limit the level of interest to a smaller group of consumers and leave the broad mass they should shoot for out. Another missed opportunity.

There is a long list of those missed opportunities out there and the car design is just one of them.

Some people say, "Give the customers what they want." But that's not my approach. Our job is to figure out what they're going to want before they do. I think Henry Ford once said, "If I'd asked customers what they wanted, they would have told me, 'A faster horse!'" People don't know what they want until you show it to them. That's why I never rely on market research. Our task is to read things that are not yet on the page.

Steve Jobs

 

[HopJokey]

Elon starting to reek of desperation...
Elon Musk on Twitter

Bears have been wondering why Tesla has been doing the ddealership--lite model and giving away perks like these...

Starting to look like Tesla might have a demand problem. Why are they giving this away while they still have a backlog of 420k+ orders?

It's only for the super high margin items, the Model X or S or the Performance Model 3. Doesn't pertain to any of the non-P Model 3s.

 

[kcveins]

Elon starting to reek of desperation...
Elon Musk on Twitter

Bears have been wondering why Tesla has been doing the ddealership--lite model and giving away perks like these...

Starting to look like Tesla might have a demand problem. Why are they giving this away while they still have a backlog of 420k+ orders?

You know that this has been out there for the last 2 years, right?

 

[tivoboy]

Best case scenario $444 by November 2018
Worst case scenario low to mid $300s
It all depends on how fast we move up this coming week
Shorts seem to be losing the grip on price action and I strongly suspect bulls ready to seize control

No way that low to mid 300’s is the worst case scenario. A retest of 2018 lows is the moderate worst case.

 

[AlMc]

Elon starting to reek of desperation...
Elon Musk on Twitter

Bears have been wondering why Tesla has been doing the ddealership--lite model and giving away perks like these...

Starting to look like Tesla might have a demand problem. Why are they giving this away while they still have a backlog of 420k+ orders?

. Man, I can not argue with your logic. <sarcasm>

When I was younger (many years ago). I did not like 'firebirds'.....'65 Mustang man here....My opinion has not changed.

Off topic weekend: Don't go away mad...just go away.