TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SO16]

I beat you by $2 !

Sold yesterday at $300, for a tidy loss. Will buy some calls with that money today.

I’m just holding.

 

[Fact Checking]

Silver Lake said they could handle the process, not that funding was confirmed. Then Musk, not the board, said it wasn't a good idea after all.

No, that's wrong, it was much more than that, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Public Bravado, Private Doubts: Inside the Unraveling of Elon Musk’s Tesla Buyout​

"On Monday and Tuesday, advisers from Goldman and Silver Lake plowed forward on a deal which may work."

"By Wednesday night, they’d a presentation for Mr. Musk, proposing a roster of deep-pocketed buyers, together with Volkswagen and Silver Lake itself, that had agreed to contribute as a lot as $30 billion, folks acquainted with the matter mentioned."​

"That had agreed to contribute as lot as $30 billion".

It's pretty clear that within ~2 weeks funding was not just secured but committed as well.

 

[uselesslogin]

What I would like to know is if the short exposure increased? Was it weak hands selling? Was it bots reacting to the news? Or was this orchestrated and acted upon by shorts who sold big time with the opening? Weak hands or bot reaction means someone is out of luck. If it was a short activity, then the percentage of shorts should have increased - unless they are slowly covering now to make a few bucks and enjoy the reset in price from which they will continue to play their games.

Maybe Ihor will have an update later. The only tool that the little guy can use in fighting these manipulations is time. Hold and wait. You can forget any help from the SEC and the financial press is a tool of those who own it. It really shouldn't be placed on the same level as general news because the distortions are obvious and the intent is clear. One could argue the same about general news and politics, but financial media is very focused and it all comes down to money.

One data point is the fee rate at IB was 1.49 this morning and is currently 1.78. From that it would appear a lot of the action is new shorting.

 

[replicant]

People, relax. Musk controls the most advanced weapons company on the planet - SpaceX. The NSA and the US military will politely tell the DoJ to Go F Themselves before things start looking ugly for Musk.

Who do you think control the USA the most: the aerospace industry or the fossil fuel interests and all the industries that still depend on oil and gas (including auto, the electric utilities, the chemical giants, etc)?

 

[humbaba]

Think about this for a second.


What you are stating is

"If I hadnt shot myself in the foot, then you definitely would have"


And then hating the accused non-shooter for shooting yourself in the foot.


This type of thought process is honestly fascinating to me. Shorts dont have anything to do with this, and i have been positive about it not being as significant as made out to be unless there is some material proof it was to 'hurt shorts' (we know it was but proving it will be tough).


Seriously though, read that sentence, and think about it

You know, I realized recently that you hadn't posted in a while. In fact, the last time you posted was after your inability to rebut my refutation. But I digress, I see that you are not interested in conversation here. Given the lack of interest by the mods you might well duck yet another ban, but that doesn't mean your inciteful posts are insightful or desired.

 

[fmonera]

The professional needs to shake out the herd (us) before a solid up movement can start. They will take advantage of bad news to buy more stock, until the majority of the floating offer is on their hands. Among other things, that is because we (the herd) tend to exit our winning positions too early, and that stops the movement.

In essence, in my oppinion:
- We are still on a solid demand zone
- A lot of professional buying happened 2 weeks ago
- On the up movement after, there are no new professional selling

That makes me suspect this is just a ShakeOut movement to load more stock.

Anyway, for me, all I said is still speculation, I need confirmations now ...
- not the place to buy unless this is a confirmed ShakeOut (we need a test). In that case that is time for me to "Bet the farm"
- not the place to sell at all

 

[Reality]

No, that's wrong, it was much more than that, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Public Bravado, Private Doubts: Inside the Unraveling of Elon Musk’s Tesla Buyout​

"On Monday and Tuesday, advisers from Goldman and Silver Lake plowed forward on a deal which may work."

"By Wednesday night, they’d a presentation for Mr. Musk, proposing a roster of deep-pocketed buyers, together with Volkswagen and Silver Lake itself, that had agreed to contribute as a lot as $30 billion, folks acquainted with the matter mentioned."​

"That had agreed to contribute as lot as $30 billion".

It's pretty clear that within ~2 weeks funding was not just secured but committed as well.

VW Denied this, but it isnt worth arguing at this point.

 

[AndyH]

.

The BOARD of the company effectively knew NOTHING about this at the time. The board went on to actually distance itself (and the company) from the statements of the CEO who made the comments, while somewhat supporting the CEO's opportunity to discuss the option with the board and outsiders.

/QUOTE]

This is the pressrelease from the board on Aug 08:

Last week, Elon opened a discussion with the board about taking the company private. This included discussion as to how being private could better serve Tesla’s long-term interests, and also addressed the funding for this to occur. The board has met several times over the last week and is taking the appropriate next steps to evaluate this.

Elon might have been hasty with his 420 tweet but he had discussions with the board under the previous week.

 

[Florin]

I'll take the other side of this view.. Just for kicks and giggles.

From the way I see it. the CEO of a high profile publicly traded company made a public announcement and put a very specific take out price (not price target, but PRICE) on the stock, and said that he had "funding secured" of what would have to be a SUBSTANTIAL amount of M&A capital. The indication and assumption here of "funding secured" was that for those who have done M&A, would indicate that a significant body of work, discussions, analysis, modeling and relationship building had probably been done.

The BOARD of the company effectively knew NOTHING about this at the time. The board went on to actually distance itself (and the company) from the statements of the CEO who made the comments, while somewhat supporting the CEO's opportunity to discuss the option with the board and outsiders.

At that point, all parties scrambled to make sense of the comments and back it up with possibilities. And then apparently decided that in the span of a few days/week, they had decided that well, "it wasn't in the best interest of the shareholders" I've worked on M&A deals, NOTHING happens that fast - at all.

I don't see this as something that is going to lead nowhere from a penalty or censure of someone or the company in some way.

I don't like it. I don't WANT it, but I'm not putting my head in the sand about what really appears to have happened and what the POSSIBLE repercussions could be.

just my .02$

Elon said he is THINKING of taking Tesla private. You can have your 0.02$ back.

 

[Reality]

You know, I realized recently that you hadn't posted in a while. In fact, the last time you posted was after your inability to rebut my refutation. But I digress, I see that you are not interested in conversation here. Given the lack of interest by the mods you might well duck yet another ban, but that doesn't mean your inciteful posts are insightful or desired.

I was on a 30 day ban, i even posted the ever hilarious post of


"Back from my 30 day ban, what did I miss?" that got like 14 funny votes.


Anyways, if you would like to link me to your post, i would be happy to respond.


I probably shouldnt have posted today, and you are right i have trimmed down posting a lot (some uh....involuntarily). I am starting to feel i have nothing to offer and even less to gain from here as time goes by. If it wasnt for the @luvb2b model that i like, i prob would leave for good. Might still.

 

[Fact Checking]

VW Denied this, but it isnt worth arguing at this point.

One of the other leaks said that a "European car maker" was lined up which could still cover Daimler or BMW, but in any case I'd like to see the exact wording of the VW denial here.

 

[LordAstinus]

$TSLA short interest $10.4 billion, 35.26 million shares shorted, 27.65% of float. Shorts are up $625 million in mark-to-market profits as #tesla is down almost 6% in mid-day trading on criminal probe news. Shorts are now up $305 million for the year & +$2 billion since The Tweet

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Watch the shorts/FUDsters skirt 272.37 all afternoon. They don't want to trigger the SEC short selling uptick rule again, so they can continue to play their games tomorrow.

The very underside of dispicable.

 

[Reality]

Watch the shorts/FUDsters skirt 272.37 all afternoon. They don't want to trigger the SEC short selling uptick rule again, so they can continue to play their games tomorrow.

The very underside of dispicable.

can you link me to this rule? I am unfamiliar

 

[RobStark]

And your point is?

"France was an early adopter of computer networks and built out a national network early on (minitel). This was a benefit at first, but unfortunately it was not TCP/IP which made it painful in the long run. Having established infrastructure is not always helpful."

The analogy of Tesla infrastructure to French computer networks is retarded.

 

[humbaba]

I was on a 30 day ban, i even posted the ever hilarious post of


"Back from my 30 day ban, what did I miss?" that got like 14 funny votes.


Anyways, if you would like to link me to your post, i would be happy to respond.


I probably shouldnt have posted today, and you are right i have trimmed down posting a lot (some uh....involuntarily). I am starting to feel i have nothing to offer and even less to gain from here as time goes by. If it wasnt for the @luvb2b model that i like, i prob would leave for good. Might still.

You know you get site notifications anytime someone replies to your posts, right?

If all you really get out of TMC is reading @luvb2b's excellent models -- you do realize that you don't even have to login to see them, right?

 

[SGordB]

Note that according to Bloomberg:

"Federal prosecutors opened a fraud investigation after Musk tweeted last month that he was contemplating taking Tesla private and had “funding secured” for the deal, said the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss a confidential criminal probe."

So while the leak is today, the criminal investigation appears to have been opened right away. Seems to me it may be no more than due diligence by the DOJ in the face of allegations Musk tweeted with criminal intent (e.g. to punish the shorts). I suspect such a criminal case will be very hard-to-impossible to make, but I'm no legal expert.

 

[humbaba]

"France was an early adopter of computer networks and built out a national network early on (minitel). This was a benefit at first, but unfortunately it was not TCP/IP which made it painful in the long run. Having established infrastructure is not always helpful."

The analogy of Tesla infrastructure to French computer networks is retarded.

You're right, it would be. Which is why I didn't. If you read the *rest* of the post you might understand that.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Just Bought a lot more at 279.

 

[EVNow]

People, relax. Musk controls the most advanced weapons company on the planet - SpaceX. The NSA and the US military will politely tell the DoJ to Go F Themselves before things start looking ugly for Musk.

LOL. NSA is busy making sure Trump doesn't start a war with Venezuela or order Assad assassinated. They don't have time for minor stuff like this.