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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I don't know -- I feel like the SEC's point is that at the time of the tweet, nothing had in fact been secured. It's certainly impressive that he scrounged up $30b in two weeks following, but I feel like they make a solid case for nothing actually being secured at the time of the tweets and that Elon knew this.



Where do you see that?
He is a buyer, to "secure funds" you don't need to have signatures, basis promises are enough. SEC claims he had it neither.
The complain is built by some "Fifer"s, now Musk has to call a "big bad Wolf" to blow it up. But of course it will take time. A lot of time.
 
that there is a press conference seems to signal they are not going to be looking for a settlement here. Musk is in real trouble here.

If he were to be banned or worse, I hope the board elevates someone (Jerome?) from inside the company to CEO.

Mod: I never move on headlines, especially when investing. Isn't this a bit premature? Or are you just as careless to express an opinion about your state of mind, similar to Elon?
 
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I've just read through the complaint:


Their case looks weak to me, because it ignores the August 8-24 time period, where Elon secures funding. It ignores the presentation Silver Lake and Goldman Sachs gave to the Tesla board, where they present 30 billion dollars of funding and outline that they think the going-private transaction can be pulled off.

Here's the contemporary Wall Street Journal report:

Public Bravado, Private Doubts: Inside the Unraveling of Elon Musk’s Tesla Buyout

"By Wednesday evening, they had a presentation for Mr. Musk, proposing a roster of deep-pocketed investors, including Volkswagen and Silver Lake itself, that had agreed to contribute as much as $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said."​

"Wednesday" was August 22, two weeks and one day after the tweet.

This falsifies a central claim of the SEC's lawsuit, outlined in the very beginning:

"Musk’s statements, disseminated via Twitter, falsely indicated that, should he so choose, it was virtually certain that he could take Tesla private at a purchase price that reflected a substantial premium over Tesla stock’s then-current share price, that funding for this multi-billion dollar transaction had been secured, and that the only contingency was a shareholder vote."​

So Elon was virtual certain that funding was secured, and two weeks later 30 billion dollars of funding was indeed not just secured but committed as well. So Elon's belief, which the SEC claims to be false, was demonstrated to be correct within 2 weeks. The SEC has no case that I can see.

A lot of bluster in the SEC lawsuit, an ask-for-the-moon request to bar Elon from being a CEO (this could be pressure tactics to force Elon to settle), and some interesting details: it looks like the Saudis indeed offered Elon to take Tesla private a couple of days before his tweet.

BTW., a side note, the SEC lawyers writing this complaint are visibly biased in favor of shorts in the lawsuit, they describe them as 'investors', almost as victims, so it should IMO be investigated separately who leaked to shorts from the SEC: today's price action was very weird: NASDAQ rose but Tesla was shorted like there was no tomorrow.

Thank you for linking the complaint. What I find most hilarious is that his comments caused TSLA to rise 6% and they act like that's a big deal. Part of the defense should be to look back and see how many days TSLA has risen by 6% in one day. There has got to be several dozen since IPO, if not hundreds.

They never even address in the complaint the falling stock price after the deal fell through. Who are they trying to protect? The shorts that were hurt with a 6% rise? Why do they not even mention the falling of the stock price from the ongoing uncertainty.

Anyway, I think Musk will get a slap on the wrist for not alerting Nasdaq and making statements that were exaggerated based on underlying facts. The coverup is worse than the crime, and he admitted honestly who he had / had not spoken to. I do believe his tweets were misleading but I do NOT believe they were false. Big difference there...

Regardless, I'm in TSLA for the long haul. Musk has created a behemoth that will not be easily taken down.
 
Worst case is if SEC intends to drag this on. If conspiracy is correct and they are in league with their wall street gangs, this is the intended result.

From the banking crisis in 2008, we learned that until the case is settled, there's always an overhang on the stock price and present a ceiling. My guess is this puts a ceiling on stock price at $300 over the duration of the trial. Mainly due to "removal as an officer". We can safely assume that the trump administration is hostile towards Tesla/Greentech just as the obama administration was hostile towards banks and pharma. So the intend is to drag this out.

Mitigating factor is a better than expected delivery in Q3 and Q4 that forces tesla to be evaluated purely on its financials, but that is really uncertain as then the market will just apply a 20x PE value instead of all the future innovations. I'd be selling into those strengths.

All of this is Musk's own doing though. From the technical chart stand point, Tesla was doing well until his tweets caused the island reversal pattern. Hopefully He really learns some hubris this time. Like his ex wife said, he become king crazy sometimes from being at the top of silicon valley.

The best thing to do is settling this rally fast without being removed as the director. But knowing Elon's tendency to fight, he'll drag this on to get his version of truth out. But his truth might be a reality distorted version like Steve Job's is. The court of public opinion of plebians that is out for rich people's blood might say otherwise.

Possibly the board will have to appoint an interim CEO to take care of things while Musk gets distracted by the lawsuit. Either way it's not a good thing to have this distraction during the most important ramp. Possible CEO candidate to take care of affair, I'd say Kimbal is great as a figurehead. JB will have to stop indulging in batteries and step up as he has the most tenure at Tesla to make ppl listen or Maybe get Eric Schmidt to come out of retirement to handle things for a bit.
 
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I think the best we can do is start calling Trump and Congress and have the person at the SEC who started this removed. That can really only happen after the case is closed. Twitter is Musk's way to communicate with shareholder. Now we have to let the case play out and see if his tweets were out right lies. If they were not I am calling my congressmen since at that point it's nothing but the SEC manipulating TSLA.

We don't know what information the SEC has. It must be damning because I have never heard of a CEO getting removed/barred for making a public announcement about wanting to take their company private. Shareholders are supposed to be informed of that info. Everyone is going to conclude that the SEC has serious info that is not public.
I don't think they object to that - "contingent only on a shareholder vote" is the problem, I suspect.
 
Musk ... Please for the love of god delete your goddammed twitter account and STFU.

Anyone else want to chime in on what a great communicator and media manipulator Musk is ?

Sheesh .....
If you're foolish enough to buy into the BS "case" the SEC is bringing that's your problem. Again, Elon did nothing wrong with those tweets, they are trying to railroad him.
 
Elon Musk is truly a complete jerk... Sec sueing him not without reasons and even holding a press conference. God Damnit Elon, why did you lie?? Great work

How on Earth is this well known astroturfer who pretends to be a long and shows up whenever he thinks he can move the stock still not banned after all this time?
 
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