TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[beachbum77]

You think it’s reasonable to argue that because some of the first Models Ss had drive unit or battery replacements that that somehow means the Model 3 doesn’t make sense as an Uber vehicle?!?!? That because one negligent Roadster owner needed to pay for a new battery and it was expensive that it’s not an economical decision to use a 3 for an Uber vehicle?!

He implied that Model 3s would need drive unit and battery replacements as soon as they ran out of warranty. Yes, he did. He’s always very clever leading people to connect dots that don’t in fact connect. Ignoring that Tesla has made continual improvements to drive units and batteries and has always stood behind their product.

He makes it appear he’s being reasonable and takes great care to measure his tone. Adds smiley faces to smooth his jabs.

You seem to keep insisting on putting words in my mouth I never said. I never implied any such thing about the motors or battery packs. My point was if a failure should occur the car owner will be paying for it, not Tesla as in the case of Model S and X units that have unlimited mileage warranties.

If you feel a $50,000 Model 3 makes a good choice for full-time use as an Uber ride you are entitled to that opinion. My number crunching says otherwise once depreciation is factored in and loss of warranty is reached. The uncertainty of parts replacement costs is a huge overhang for anyone considering high mileage use of a Model 3. The prohibited use of the SC network for commercial operators limits the number of hours any Tesla could be operated per day.

So do your own math and prove me wrong. I have no problem admitting a mistake if you can prove I made one.

 

[bdy0627]

Market rebounds, tsla not an inch. Strange after early strength

Shorts remain very firmly in control even at this price level.

 

[lklundin]

Shorts remain very firmly in control even at this price level.

Are there any specific trades to support that assertion?
(IB has reportedly a record high level of shares available to short sell, at a low interest rate).

 

[Boomer19]

I don't think we know when the earnings call is going to be yet, my money is still on first week of Nov 2018.

yes. bloomberg estimtes 10/31 (i guess bc it’s the 5th wednesday after qtr end?)
but i’m still betting something like nov 1,6,7

 

[beachbum77]

That approach isn’t going to work either. I’ve said no such thing, implied no such thing, and there are enough long time posters to know that.

You keep claiming I have an agenda yet you have offered zero proof. Spacecash just claimed I am paid to post here, which is total nonsense but he or someone else pulled down his post before I could respond. For the record, I post here since I find some Tesla information seems to appear here before it does in the press or gets better analysis here. I find that very interesting.

I am a very serious investor and have proven that by posting my actual trading record on this thread. I have no qualms going long when the timing is right as I also showed to all of you. So I will offer the free advice my Irish mother used to give people, "unless you have something nice to say, shut the *&%$^ up. And she always said it with a smile

 

[Dutchie]

Bought TSLA a couple of months ago @280. Went up right away. Now down. In the long run is is just a blip. The fact is that everyone is looking at Tesla through a microscope. When Elon burps then the market swings big time. I think that even SEC follows Tesla through a microscope. That whole SEC thing is a nothing burger and I would love to see a an independent judge rule on that. The only thing Musk did wrong is not follow NASDAQ rules and inform them ahead of time that tweet was coming.
SEC would have a hard time proving ill intend. On contrary, SEC has caused more harm to investors than Musk's tweets.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think it's mostly because part of the SEC agreement was for the Tesla board to monitor his tweets, and many thought that they would no longer have to worry about Elon's tweeting and he came out and made sure everyone knew that was not true. Many hoped that he finally got the message that twitter is by far a net negative for him, and the company.

Now many longs are reconsidering holding because Elon has a potential Tweet of Damocles hanging over the company. This price action isn't shorts shorting more,IMHO, it's longs dumping.

If Elon were to give his twitter account over to his brother Kimbal or just get rid of it all together, the stock would go up $30-50 tomorrow.

Twitter sucks. There are many people who go down the rabbit hole and destroy themselves on it.

I’m in agreement with what you’re stating, and I think Elon is smart enough to see that his behavior on and off Twitter has negatively affected shareholders as well as the company. I feel for him as he’s going through a lot of emotions right now. I just hope he makes the right decision for all of us and settle quickly so that we can move on and focus on what’s important, Model 3 and the mission. The distraction is quite unnecessary and should be eliminated as we are on the cusp of profitability. We can’t have these distractions hang over us like this, the company has worked to hard, too long for this to happen. Let it go Elon, and settle so that we may have productive dicussions about numbers, deliveries, forecasts, etc. instead of sec. We’re all sick and tired of the sec, once Tesla is making boatloads of money, you can tackle them by changing laws and influencing congress to prevent shorting. For now, take one for the team....

 

[omarsultan]

Musk and Tesla are doing much better than headlines suggest

Media outlets are doing what they can to survive. They are laying off seasoned journalists with strong fact-checking instincts. They are laying off fact-checkers. They are laying off editors. They are rethinking how they write headlines to compete with clickbait

Many more good points ...

That is a good article and spot on.

Somewhere upthread @DaveT said something about Tesla getting control of the narrative. Completely agree, but it's too late to turn this news cycle--there is too much momentum and the best thing you can do is hunker down and let it play out. The good news is eventually folks will tire of hearing Tesla-is-failing stories and stop clicking and stop generating revenue so it will be someone else's turn in the barrel.

Elon & Co should, however, be preparing for the inevitable Tesla redemption story which is coming and the media will want to tell (again, we love our redemption stories and will happily click on those headlines too). Give it a couple of profitable qtrs and Elon will be the visionary hero again.

And eventually, Tesla will find itself in the barrel again but hopefully with better levers to shape the narrative.

 

[sundaymorning]

Bought TSLA a couple of months ago @280. Went up right away. Now down. In the long run is is just a blip. The fact is that everyone is looking at Tesla through a microscope. When Elon burps then the market swings big time. I think that even SEC follows Tesla through a microscope. That whole SEC thing is a nothing burger and I would love to see a an independent judge rule on that. The only thing Musk did wrong is not follow NASDAQ rules and inform them ahead of time that tweet was coming.
SEC would have a hard time proving ill intend. On contrary, SEC has caused more harm to investors than Musk's tweets.

Absolutely. Does anyone here remember about the Uber CEO incident with the cab driver? No, and the guy was forced out over it. Months or possibly weeks from now everyone may even forget about 420 hell. Right now things are looking really good for Model 3. The ramp is healthy, we’re cash flow positive in my opinion, and we should be adding at least a couple hundred million to the $2.2 billion reserves.

 

[omarsultan]

I think it's mostly because part of the SEC agreement was for the Tesla board to monitor his tweets, and many thought that they would no longer have to worry about Elon's tweeting and he came out and made sure everyone knew that was not true. Many hoped that he finally got the message that twitter is by far a net negative for him, and the company.

Maybe I misunderstood things, but I thought the twitter oversight was strictly related to business matters relating to TSLA--the issue with the "going private" tweets was that they were ad hoc and there was no tie in to any kind of governance around the release of material info. I did not think the agreement meant some sort of blanket muzzle on Elon--seems like a 1A issue and a giant PIA given the variety of topics he tweets about.

 

[Nocturnal]

251,man, I don't think I can toss anymore cash onto this.

 

[hobbes]

Musk and Tesla are doing much better than headlines suggest

Media outlets are doing what they can to survive. They are laying off seasoned journalists with strong fact-checking instincts. They are laying off fact-checkers. They are laying off editors. They are rethinking how they write headlines to compete with clickbait

Many more good points ...

At least this way we got our own @Fact Checking guy spending lots of time here now - thanks for all the good input .

 

[Remus]

Absolutely not. He's repetitive, annoying, and paid-to-post. Frankly you're sus as well.

OK

 

[Nocturnal]

I think it's mostly because part of the SEC agreement was for the Tesla board to monitor his tweets, and many thought that they would no longer have to worry about Elon's tweeting and he came out and made sure everyone knew that was not true. Many hoped that he finally got the message that twitter is by far a net negative for him, and the company.

Now many longs are reconsidering holding because Elon has a potential Tweet of Damocles hanging over the company. This price action isn't shorts shorting more,IMHO, it's longs dumping.

If Elon were to give his twitter account over to his brother Kimbal or just get rid of it all together, the stock would go up $30-50 tomorrow.

Twitter sucks. There are many people who go down the rabbit hole and destroy themselves on it.

It would be interesting to see somebody add up all the "losses" that misuse of Twitter has caused over the years. Has to be in the many billions.

 

[dc_h]

Already a year ago PV contracts in that region went below 18 $/MWh (i.e. contract awarded to company agreeing to build and operate PV-plant for 25 years for that payment),
How is Saudi Arabia setting solar pricing records? Is it sustainable – repeatable?

How would Tesla compete in that market, when their solar roof targets a rather affluent market (like the original Tesla Roadster)?

Two options in KSA, as I see it.
1: KSA buys 1 billion in batteries for every 5 to 10 billion in solar power. Tesla doesn’t compete with lowest price solar providers.
2: KSA signs big contract for roof systems in new developments and wants upscale Tesla roofs. Build to new would simplify deploy of the new roof and get scale going.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

SEC would have a hard time proving ill intend.

I feel like a broken record here, but the SEC does not need to prove intent. That's not the purpose of the SEC.

The SEC exists to:

• protect investors
• maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets
• facilitate capital formation.

They don't need to prove intent when doing things to try and achieve this mission.

"Proving intent" is necessary for criminal proceedings, but the SEC never puts anyone in jail.

And "protect investors" is only one part of their mission. Shorts and Put option holders are also covered under #2.

The whole point of disclosure laws is so that everyone is on a level playing field. No one gets an advantage via material information asymmetry, which is necessary for the second part of their mission.

 

[Ugliest1]

I maybe asking for trouble here but let me vouch for beachbum77 dispite of the fact I disagree with him all the time. It is important to hear the other side of the argument when it is presented in a calm and elaborative manner. he present the complete argument most of the time, unlike some troll who just repeat stupid sound bites.

I have to completely disagree about presenting the complete argument. There have been way too many posts with twisted "incomplete" arguments, making the hidden agenda obvious.

 

[Tslynk67]

It would be interesting to see somebody add up all the "losses" that misuse of Twitter has caused over the years. Has to be in the many billions.

All you anti-Elon-Tweeting crowd are conveniently forgetting the many times his Tweets propelled the SP upwards.

Yes it has been difficult recently, yes Elon could be a little more careful, but he is what he is and has guided Tesla from a garage start-up to where we are today.

So have some perspective, FFS.

 

[M3Rider]

Show me a single example of Elon saying this in the past.

What gives you the idea that Elon will say screw it?

These are my words to make the point shorter.

I don't know all the past history, but my understanding is that Tesla only had a couple of profitable quarters before. So it is a normal modus operandi. He got tired of shorts saying that you're not a company if you don't turn a profit, so he dedicated Q3 to prove you can make a profit on EVs.

If the point is proven, he could decide it's not worth repeating the exercise in Q4 etc. and go back into the expansion mode.

 

[abasile]

Worth remembering the initial reaction here on this Forum on Thursday night after Elon mocked the SEC in a tweet. Many lomgs, myself included, were aghast. While many of us quickly put it behind us as Elon being Elon, I think many more casual investors saw it as the breaking point - you dont mock a policeman immediately after you made an agreement with him to treat you lightly for a previous transgression.

I have no idea if that means the weaker longs are all out after Friday and today - I just hope we have an end now to those tweets on that topic, and everyone can get back to focusing on the excellent fundamentals emerging.

I'll admit that my initial reaction to Elon's "Shortseller Enrichment Commission" tweet was one of concern, for basically the reason you gave.

However, isn't this supposed to be a free country? We shouldn't have to kowtow to government officials in hopes of appeasing them.

Kudos to Elon for sticking to his guns. As far as I can tell, the SEC is dead wrong to be pursuing a case against Elon. If he decides to go to trial rather than settling, then I intend to support him.

There are some tweets that I wish Elon had not made, particularly the "pedo" tweets. On the other hand, I worry that forcing him to have all of his tweets "approved" could have unintended consequences. I think I'd prefer to just "let Elon be Elon" and not try to reign him in, or take away his board chairmanship. Tesla has achieved greatness under Elon's leadership, and while I believe that Tesla would continue pursuing its mission without him, I agree with others that Tesla would likely become more risk averse and less aggressive at pursuing new goals in energy and transportation.

Personally, my biggest gripe about Elon's recent actions was his willingness to rely on the Saudis for major funding. However, there is room for honest differences of opinion as to whether that would have been a good thing.

Also, it's easy for us to (rightly) say that Elon shouldn't be overly focused on short sellers. But it's hard to blame him for becoming frustrated at the avalanche of negative, shortseller-instigated "fake news" against Tesla, which is where the real scandal lies.