TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

I still find this disconcerting:

Good from overall big picture right?
While burst and end of quarter rates have been report to be 5K +, those higher rates haven't been ale to be maintained for whole quarter.
A guidance of 60-65K for 4Q would be good IMHO and that would put average per week rate around 5K.

The change in color options might have created some increase in throughput -- but the next big one it seems will only happen around Dec once the new Panasonic lines (3 at GF) will be there. (Fremont already did 10K drivetrains ) ..~ Cheers.

 

[mongo]

Good from overall big picture right?
While burst and end of quarter rates have been report to be 5K +, those higher rates haven't been ale to be maintained for whole quarter.
A guidance of 60-65K for 4Q would be good IMHO and that would put average per week rate around 5K.

The change in color options might have created some increase in throughput -- but the next big one it seems will only happen around Dec once the new Panasonic lines (3 at GF) will be there. (Fremont already did 10K drivetrains ) ..~ Cheers.

New lines should be going before the original date of December, per Panasonic.
Panasonic is ‘ahead of schedule’ to add Tesla Gigafactory 1 battery cell production lines

 

[RoadsterPlease]

260

 

[traxila]

I still find this disconcerting:

I guess the original target of a Model 3 launch in 2020 did not make the list.

 

[elasalle]

So far 3410 votes, 50% nominating Tesla:

How do we count only the votes from folks in Paris and who actually visited the motor show.
(disclaimer .. I voted too )

 

[KarenRei]

I still find this disconcerting:

I love the fake "missed target" lines Bloomberg added

1) Tesla's production rates were never supposed to be linear; Tesla has talked from day 1 about how they're supposed to be S curves. Drawing a linear fit over an S curve production rate is a guaranteed way to make production look like a miss.

2) Tesla's planned production rates have always been peak rates, not average rate. The green line in the above graph is ostensibly an average rate (but not really, more on this in a second). Tesla's average rate goal for Q3 - which they hit - was 4k per week.

3) The green line is just simply wrong. They averaged 4k per week across Q3 as a whole, not just at the end of it.

4) The light green bars are also wrong; there was no "end of quarter drop". Bloomberg's VIN-based system overestimated the production in the middle of Q3 and thus had to have it drop off at the end of the quarter to compensate.

5) Naturally, Bloomberg left off the earlier goals where Tesla wasn't even supposed to start production until the end of '17, or the even earlier, even less ambitious goals.

It'd be nice to have a legitimate version of that graph to share.

 

[humbaba]

so far neither a rocket a climb, nor a drop to previous levels. Still waiting.

 

[shootformoon]

I love the fake "missed target" lines Bloomberg added

1) Tesla's production rates were never supposed to be linear; Tesla has talked from day 1 about how they're supposed to be S curves. Drawing a linear fit over an S curve production rate is a guaranteed way to make production look like a miss.

2) Tesla's planned production rates have always been peak rates, not average rate. The green line in the above graph is ostensibly an average rate (but not really, more on this in a second). Tesla's average rate goal for Q3 - which they hit - was 4k per week.

3) The green line is just simply wrong. They averaged 4k per week across Q3 as a whole, not just at the end of it.

4) The light green bars are also wrong; there was no "end of quarter drop". Bloomberg's VIN-based system overestimated the production in the middle of Q3 and thus had to have it drop off at the end of the quarter to compensate.

5) Naturally, Bloomberg left off the earlier goals where Tesla wasn't even supposed to start production until the end of '17, or the even earlier, even less ambitious goals.

It'd be nice to have a legitimate version of that graph to share.

I feel amazed until today this thread still has so many posts using this bloomberg tracker. Its method and results are proved to be, what can I say, not reliable.

 

[humbaba]

I feel amazed until today this thread still has so many posts using this bloomberg tracker. Its method and results are proved to be, what can I say, not reliable. I would think this tracker are built for people who enjoy cnbc nyt so much

to be fair, as I recall this has come up in the past with the understanding that at any point in time Bloomberg is generally wrong but that over longer periods it isn't bad. Which Karen alluded to with her bit about them over estimating production and then backing off to bring it back in line with reality.

 

[elasalle]

to be fair, as I recall this has come up in the past with the understanding that at any point in time Bloomberg is generally wrong but that over longer periods it isn't bad. Which Karen alluded to with her bit about them over estimating production and then backing off to bring it back in line with reality.

There is convergence at end of quarter and divergence at beginning of quarter

 

[Webeevdrivers]

to be fair, as I recall this has come up in the past with the understanding that at any point in time Bloomberg is generally wrong but that over longer periods it isn't bad. Which Karen alluded to with her bit about them over estimating production and then backing off to bring it back in line with reality.

I don’t know. It was off by a few 100 percent before the 3Q update. It was indicating somewhere around 1600 cars per week and dropping a 100 per day. It was manually updated only when they had to. I lean towards deliberately misleading for alterior reasons.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Once again even on a day most factors indicating a climb a massive dip right after opening......I'm getting kind of tired of this *sugar*.

I didn't type sugar.

 

[ZachF]

TSLA up 3% vs 2% for NASDAQ

 

[tinm]

Anyone else concerned about possible upcoming expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla given the apparent assassination of a U.S. Green Card holding journalist likely by the Sauidi government? Twitter is full of activity right now about companies, media, and governments backing out of the Davos in the Desert event, which was rumored to be where a major Tesla announcement was going to be made.

Now what? Will/should Tesla walk from the deal? If not, does the stock (and company reputation) take a huge hit?

 

[humbaba]

I don’t know. It was off by a few 100 percent before the 3Q update. It was indicating somewhere around 1600 cars per week and dropping a 100 per day. It was manually updated only when they had to. I lean towards deliberately misleading for alterior reasons.

If it was overestimating at the beginning of quarter what sort of reason would they have been deliberately misleading for?

I tend to stick with incompetence before conspiracy. There are cases, such as the near uniform negative slant in the mass media regarding Tesla that seems hard to explain through simple incompetence and maybe that includes the Bloomberg estimate, but it has all the hallmarks of bad methodology with manual correction, not conspiracy.

 

[JRP3]

Get your orders in soon to get full tax credit Tesla vehicles ordered after October 15 lose out on full tax credit eligibility

Tesla customers who want the full $7,500 federal tax credit have until October 15 to order a Model S, Model X or Model 3 electric vehicle, a new deadline posted on the company’s website that could spark a flurry of sales.

 

[humbaba]

Anyone else concerned about possible upcoming expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla given the apparent assassination of a U.S. Green Card holding journalist likely by the Sauidi government? Twitter is full of activity right now about companies, media, and governments backing out of the Davos in the Desert event, which was rumored to be where a major Tesla announcement was going to be made.

Now what? Will/should Tesla walk from the deal? If not, does the stock (and company reputation) take a huge hit?

I agree, it is concerning and it may affect the stock price. But there's nothing to really do about it. TBH I don't trust information from Turkey, but his missing for an extended period of time is a fact and bad optics are bad optics.

Its hard telling if Tesla will walk away from a deal when we don't even know that there was a deal, or what the deal would have been. Lots of speculation here to be sure, but we don't really know anything.

 

[Unpilot]

Damn you 260!

 

[Krugerrand]

I feel amazed until today this thread still has so many posts using this bloomberg tracker. Its method and results are proved to be, what can I say, not reliable.

Reliably wrong is still a form of reliability, no?

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone else concerned about possible upcoming expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla given the apparent assassination of a U.S. Green Card holding journalist likely by the Sauidi government? Twitter is full of activity right now about companies, media, and governments backing out of the Davos in the Desert event, which was rumored to be where a major Tesla announcement was going to be made.

Now what? Will/should Tesla walk from the deal? If not, does the stock (and company reputation) take a huge hit?

What "possible upcoming expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla"? Saudi Arabia saying that they have a cleantech announcement says nothing about "an expansion of Saudi investment in Tesla".