TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

That f***ing Saudi prince is gonna poison the new business deal with Tesla.
I foresee a huge backlash in media, and more FUD.

What "new business deal with Tesla"?

Can people please acting talking like there's some sort of confirmation like Saudi Arabia is engaging in some sort of massive new deal with Tesla simply because they said they're going to be making a large cleantech announcement?

 

[RobStark]

Now what? Will/should Tesla walk from the deal? If not, does the stock (and company reputation) take a huge hit?

Do the greedy bastards on Wall Street care MbS killed a Saudi journalist in Turkey?

More so than massive new revenues/profits stemming from Saudi Arabia?

"Ethical funds" don't invest in Tesla because Elon gets too many TSLA options and doesn't embrace the Mafiosi at the UAW.

 

[tivoboy]

I'm really not sure how that would affect my taxes. I know that there's a 10% penalty for early IRA withdrawals, but that's the limit of my knowledge. I'll have to take a look.

But I'm not sure how many, if any, of the people I know even have IRAs. My general point is that many people can't qualify for any, much less all, of the EV tax credit so it isn't relevant to them.

It's not a withdrawal, it's a conversion. IRA is pre-tax contribution based, ROTH IRA is not. If one converts an IRA (especially in a lower income personal tax year) you'll be assessed a tax rate based on that years income if you convert IRA funds to a ROTH. It's not too much, similar to what your in year income tax rate is. From there forward that ROTH has no income tax assessed in the future (and it can be withdrawn at earlier times than a traditional IRA)

So, it "creates" the income tax liability that would be offset by any federal TAX CREDIT. Essentially you're regaining the opportunity to put money into a ROTH which would normally be after tax, without the actual out of pocket tax impact.

As for the second part, most people ARE taking advantage of the 7500$ federal tax credit, so it's certainly in the consideration for buyers and at this low end vehicle level it would certainly impact some portion of the Model 3 buyer. Model S/X, possibly not so much it just such a higher entry price point that the buyer probably wouldn't alter their purchase decision if it was reduced or in the end, went away.

 

[tivoboy]

Unless you already maxed your Roth for the year. I'm looking for creative ways to up my liability for the year as I funded my regular pretax IRA heavily at the start of the year until I realized that I wasn't going to get 7k in tax liability at that rate. Any ideas other then make more money (already on that)?

Sorry for getting off topic. At this point I am really glad that Tesla isn't being taken private with Suadi funds as the US has an automatic sanctions protocol if your government is found to have been whacking journalists. Would have made for a lot of uncertainty.

you could sell stocks that you have in a taxable account, which would create a tax liability for the sale (short term is best for this) and then simply re-buy those stocks. You'll have the tax, but you will have reset the basis on the shares sold (and repurchased). the math on that one is pretty simple for capital gains.

 

[RobStark]

my first post included the comment that I don't make enough to afford a Tesla. Stock is one thing, a vehicle is another. Theoretically, yes, I could get a Tesla. And I keep running through the math trying to find a way.

But I could be making a substantial amount more (enough to buy a Tesla) and *still* not be able to take advantage of the tax break. These discussions seem to be mostly by people who unquestionably make enough money to have large tax burdens so the reality of many buyers seems to be missed.

You can also go through a leasing company and they roll the tax credit into the lease payment. Or most of it anyway.

That should also lower the buyout price at the end of lease.

 

[bhtooefr]

You can also go through a leasing company and they roll the tax credit into the lease payment. Or most of it anyway.

That should also lower the buyout price at the end of lease.

Depends on how the leasing company structures it - AFAIK a lot of leasing companies apply it as cap cost reduction rather than to the residual.

(This has resulted in many people finding it literally cheaper to return an EV to the dealer and then buy it back as a separate used transaction than to buy out the lease, although Tesla's strong actual resale value will likely make it not as bad.)

 

[cheshire cat]

Do the greedy bastards on Wall Street care MbS killed a Saudi journalist in Turkey?

More so than massive new revenues/profits stemming from Saudi Arabia?

"Ethical funds" don't invest in Tesla because Elon gets too many TSLA options and doesn't embrace the Mafiosi at the UAW.

But you may be surprised at what they DO invest in

 

[cheshire cat]

Depends on how the leasing company structures it - AFAIK a lot of leasing companies apply it as cap cost reduction rather than to the residual.

(This has resulted in many people finding it literally cheaper to return an EV to the dealer and then buy it back as a separate used transaction than to buy out the lease, although Tesla's strong actual resale value will likely make it not as bad.)

Finger trouble sorry

 

[pyromatter]

Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory takes a step forward with structural cable patent

From the patent:

Structural element 104 may be a strip or a bar of metal, e.g., iron, steel, stainless steel, aluminum, copper, tin, or nickel at a thickness so as to provide structural support but allow for manipulation (for example cold bending) into different geometries.

For example, structural element 104 may be a 1.5 mm thick bar of copper. The structural element 104 may be cold rolled prior to installation by the robotic arm 106 or cold rolled by the robotic arm 106 itself.

Besides pure metals, the structural element 104 may be formed from other materials including, but not limited to, alloys that exhibit suitable ductility in providing the adequate amounts of flexibility and rigidity.

Structural element 104 may also be non-metallic. For example, the structural element may be made of a monomer, polymer, or hybrid polymer-metal composite. Exemplary polymers include silicone polyethylene complex polymers, which can be malleable as well as retain form, homopolymer high density polyethylene (HDPE), which can achieve good plastic deformation retention, or another polymer.

To form specific bends and geometries, localized heat may be used to thermoplastically deform the polymer. An exemplary polymer-metal composite is copper and iron nanoparticles embedded in polyvinylchloride. Other structural elements may also be used as long as they may be formed or deformed into the desired structure.
​

I suspect this will be used initially in the Model Y.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Wow. Tesla just raised price on Powerwall + other hardware by $1,200, and also raised estimate of install price. That's a substantial jump. Theories about the timing logic w.r.t all the expanded capacity? Doesn't look like market is that reactive to it.

Tesla increases the price of the Powerwall as demand greatly outpaces production

 

[pyromatter]

Elon Musk's Tesla seeks to trademark 'Teslaquila' 

 

[mongo]

Wow. Tesla just raised price on Powerwall + other hardware by $1,200, and also raised estimate of install price. That's a substantial jump. Theories about the timing logic w.r.t all the expanded capacity? Doesn't look like market is that reactive to it.

Tesla increases the price of the Powerwall as demand greatly outpaces production

More orders than capacity combined with value being higher then previous price point. Balancing against power pack production/ revenue?

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory takes a step forward with structural cable patent

From the patent:

Structural element 104 may be a strip or a bar of metal, e.g., iron, steel, stainless steel, aluminum, copper, tin, or nickel at a thickness so as to provide structural support but allow for manipulation (for example cold bending) into different geometries.

For example, structural element 104 may be a 1.5 mm thick bar of copper. The structural element 104 may be cold rolled prior to installation by the robotic arm 106 or cold rolled by the robotic arm 106 itself.

Besides pure metals, the structural element 104 may be formed from other materials including, but not limited to, alloys that exhibit suitable ductility in providing the adequate amounts of flexibility and rigidity.

Structural element 104 may also be non-metallic. For example, the structural element may be made of a monomer, polymer, or hybrid polymer-metal composite. Exemplary polymers include silicone polyethylene complex polymers, which can be malleable as well as retain form, homopolymer high density polyethylene (HDPE), which can achieve good plastic deformation retention, or another polymer.

To form specific bends and geometries, localized heat may be used to thermoplastically deform the polymer. An exemplary polymer-metal composite is copper and iron nanoparticles embedded in polyvinylchloride. Other structural elements may also be used as long as they may be formed or deformed into the desired structure.
​

I suspect this will be used initially in the Model Y.

This is awesome. Remember, the thing that robots have trouble with is all of the "fiddly bits". If you have some cables or flexible / squeezable components that hang off of a part, that's a nightmare for robots to install. But if you can make parts rigid yet cold bendable, then that's a robot's dream come true.

And it's another example of Tesla's "aggressive moat-bridging strategies" that got them to this point. Traditional automakers saw, "Gee, robots have trouble with many of the tasks of building cars, so that's just the way it is, so we have to hire a ton of people to do them." Tesla looked at the problem and decided, "Well, we'll see if modern computer vision and manipulation algorithms can do it." That failed due to the fiddly bits. So Tesla is now saying, according to this, "Okay, fine, we'll just get rid of the fiddly bits then!"

BTW, this shouldn't just affect the Model Y. Remember that Model 3 was also designed with the concept of heavy use of robotic general assembly; they've just had trouble bringing it to fruition. I fully expect them to - part by part - start migrating to this approach over time.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Elon Musk's Tesla seeks to trademark 'Teslaquila'

Love it! I know I'm reading way too much into this but it doesn't seem to be the act of a company not about to hit its production/revenue goals!

 

[1101011]

Glad to see we've not lost our sense of humor.

Elon Musk's Tesla seeks to trademark 'Teslaquila'

 

[Leo9]

TSLA is not doing great today unfortunately. I would not be surprised if we close red again.

 

[dqd88]

If you make enough to afford a Tesla, you should have enough taxes to get the full rebate. Unless you are really good at avoiding taxes.

How much taxable income would one need to get the full rebate?

 

[mongo]

Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory takes a step forward with structural cable patent

From the patent:

Structural element 104 may be a strip or a bar of metal, e.g., iron, steel, stainless steel, aluminum, copper, tin, or nickel at a thickness so as to provide structural support but allow for manipulation (for example cold bending) into different geometries.

For example, structural element 104 may be a 1.5 mm thick bar of copper. The structural element 104 may be cold rolled prior to installation by the robotic arm 106 or cold rolled by the robotic arm 106 itself.

Besides pure metals, the structural element 104 may be formed from other materials including, but not limited to, alloys that exhibit suitable ductility in providing the adequate amounts of flexibility and rigidity.

Structural element 104 may also be non-metallic. For example, the structural element may be made of a monomer, polymer, or hybrid polymer-metal composite. Exemplary polymers include silicone polyethylene complex polymers, which can be malleable as well as retain form, homopolymer high density polyethylene (HDPE), which can achieve good plastic deformation retention, or another polymer.

To form specific bends and geometries, localized heat may be used to thermoplastically deform the polymer. An exemplary polymer-metal composite is copper and iron nanoparticles embedded in polyvinylchloride. Other structural elements may also be used as long as they may be formed or deformed into the desired structure.
​

I suspect this will be used initially in the Model Y.

More vertical integration for Tesla:

An advantage of this flat cable configuration with known geometries and wires/conductors spaced at known dimensions (and preferably collinear) is that the process of connecting the flat wires/conductors to connectors may be automated through, for example crimping, traditional soldering, or laser soldering. In a specific implementation, encased wires are held on a flat conveyer or with a robotic arm, and the wires are stripped using a stripping attachment so as to preserve the wire spacing. The robotic arm (or another robotic arm) may then pick up a connector and crimp the connector to the wires by pressing down (or utilizing an appropriate tool).

No need for humans in the process: stripping (currently automated along with wire length cutting), crimping (currently automated, but one wire at a time), and assembly into connector bodies (currently manual operation for entire harness).

For comparison: a 40 position insulation displacement connector (IDC, old school hard drive cable) only requires one press operation. Versus cutting, stripping, and terminating 40 wires (80 ends), and then placing each in the correct cavity of a connector...

Also makes the cable more durable and consistent. Note the lack of insulation on each wire also, the overall assembly provides that. More cost savings, no insulation or over wrap (tape or split loom).

Agree this is headed for Y, with a network + (48V?) power bus architecture and smart nodes(mostly cameras, sensor, and LED drivers) that handle power switching.

 

[mspohr]

But you may be surprised at what they DO invest in

Looks like serious fallout for MBS from Turkey disappearance at Saudi embassy.
Saudi summit in crisis as Khashoggi case prompts mass withdrawals
Saudi summit in crisis as Khashoggi case prompts mass withdrawals

 

[MarcusMaximus]

TSLA is not doing great today unfortunately. I would not be surprised if we close red again.

It’s doing... about as well as the rest of the market? Closing red is, of course, always possible, but right now it’s just following the market.