Krugerrand
Meow
With a straight face and fingers crossed behind your back.
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With a straight face and fingers crossed behind your back.
See, that could all be true, but i'm not sure if it is. I'm not aware of any chips Tesla currently produces, so they've got to buy their hardware from the same industry suppliers. With that comes firmware, which Tesla can update via OTA and others can not or don't want to do. With that also comes firmware for those boxes, some industry standards like a CAN bus, a real-time operating system tying those things together and oftentimes another operating system used for everything user-oriented.
So you probably have
- some tweaked firmware for those boxes
- a real-time OS controlling them (Slides from Keen Security Lab (Tencent) suggested in 2016 it was FreeRTOS)
- a CAN bus for communication between them (still in Model 3 right?)
- another user-facing operating system on top of that (Adapted Linux for Tesla, forgot which flavour)
Only if they are cell constrained. Considering Tesla is way behind M3 production forecast made late last year, they are unlikely to be cell constrained.
Most likely they are slightly demand constrained in North America for high priced model 3. The slightly less expensive M3 is designed to give a push to those buyers wanting for a somewhat less expensive model.
Tear downs put the LR cost at ~ 28k: Tesla Model 3 teardown points to only $28,000 in potential material and production cost
Elon confirms 28k cost at 10k/per week: Elon Musk on Twitter
Those calculations say a 3MR costs 50% more than even an S Tesla is going to ‘kill’ the auto industry with Elon Musk’s way of thinking about manufacturing, says SpaceX CTO
(I think Tesla sandbagged the margin numbers, or didn't plan for the LR AWD popularity) Alternatively, if the MR is a higher percentage of the mix, the margin improves.
A clade of madagascar primates which are clean, fast, and whose natural range has a radius of about 260 miles.
mltv
Member
MR is probably for market share reason and less about profit and margin. It is to appease those waiting for SR and make a compelling comparison with honda/toyotas. Those who move up from SR to MR are likely getting more of their friends ready to jump in to SR in 2019.
There could be a deal sitting there on the table, covered by a napkin to keep it somewhat fresh while the negative news cycle is too loud.
I am pretty sure, that if I ask the question "is it just me", that everyone will certainly pile on and says "YES!",, but
Is it just me that doesn't think that this latest announcement about the "31K$ Mid Range Model 3" is a good thing.?
As I look at it, we weren't expecting ANY lower cost car for many months, because the demand and delivery of the HIGHER priced cars was strong enough to fill ALL that Tesla could produce. And, why wouldn't you just sell those cars to at least DOMESTIC buyers, when the tax credit is the highest for at least the next couple months? It's same vehicle deliveries - hopefully, MAX production and it's going to be higher revenue and margin overall.
Now, we get the announcement that one can order NOW and GET that new CHEAPER car with the FULL tax credit (and the funky/fuzzy math they use to indicate the price is only 31K ((IN CA mind you and IF you factor in five years or gas savings - I've ALWAYS hated how they present pricing that way))..
Add to that that it is IMHO MOST likely that this is the same battery pack, not just the same size and shape but with the same cells. They have done this before its fine, but the input costs are the SAME. They just turn off access to some capacity. Like they are turning off access to some performance as well. And yet, it's COSTS them the same so the margin on these vehicles will be compressed a bit. Small bit, but every bit counts.
So, again - most likely JUST ME but I see this as a DEMAND problem for now. At least seasonally, if not overall. If they already have to somehow lower market pricing to move vehicles at the production rate they have risen to or the supply they have produced, well then we have a much bigger problem. Not one that can't be fixed, but in the near term - it would be a problem.
Let the flames begin.
Is it just me that doesn't think that this latest announcement about the "31K$ Mid Range Model 3" is a good thing.?
As I look at it, we weren't expecting ANY lower cost car for many months, because the demand and delivery of the HIGHER priced cars was strong enough to fill ALL that Tesla could produce. And, why wouldn't you just sell those cars to at least DOMESTIC buyers, when the tax credit is the highest for at least the next couple months? It's same vehicle deliveries - hopefully, MAX production and it's going to be higher revenue and margin overall.
Now, we get the announcement that one can order NOW and GET that new CHEAPER car with the FULL tax credit (and the funky/fuzzy math they use to indicate the price is only 31K ((IN CA mind you and IF you factor in five years or gas savings - I've ALWAYS hated how they present pricing that way))..
Add to that that it is IMHO MOST likely that this is the same battery pack, not just the same size and shape but with the same cells. They have done this before its fine, but the input costs are the SAME. They just turn off access to some capacity. Like they are turning off access to some performance as well. And yet, it's COSTS them the same so the margin on these vehicles will be compressed a bit. Small bit, but every bit counts.
So, again - most likely JUST ME but I see this as a DEMAND problem for now. At least seasonally, if not overall. If they already have to somehow lower market pricing to move vehicles at the production rate they have risen to or the supply they have produced, well then we have a much bigger problem. Not one that can't be fixed, but in the near term - it would be a problem.
Let the flames begin.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Not everyone has a sense of humor or can recognize humor or they simply have a different sense of humor. Ben and her right hand Jerry had just been following me around all day giving double disagrees on all posts because emotional abuse and me not yet seeking help for my vigilanteness. Not my fault, though, I’m stuck in the whirlpool of echo chamberness.
Wait for it....
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The L3MR has much less cost for battery cells, possibly $4K less than the LR.
One thing that might move the stock price in the next week would be the CR reliability survey. At this point I think most people forget the Model S is 'above average.' They get the impression Tesla's are unreliable from the narratives being pushed. I've seen far less reliability impacting complaints on the Model X. If that rating gets up to average and the Model 3 gets average reliability it can go a long way and will certainly move the brand ranking quite a bit higher. Heck, could the Model S tick up to 'far above average?' They do seem to keep getting better and better.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Everyone interprets news through their own lens until that viewpoint is no longer viable. So bears are interpreting this as things like "demand flagging", "FSD failing", etc, just as we interpret it as things like "margins soaring", "cash position good enough to not need to discount FSD via preorders", etc.
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No need to construct a contradiction in my arguments. In that case there is none. You know other cars still exist and sell for a profit. Even cars that are un-like a Model 3.
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It is relevant for a benchmark/ range check. The line may not be stable, but it's cost is not increasing significantly. Your calculation says there is an extra 15k of cost per car. Depak mentioned 2k in depreciation at 10k /week. For 5k, that is only an extra 2k. There are less GA stations, so labor should be on par or better than S. At 40k per car, split between an extra 2k depreciation and 8k labor, that is 80 hours of labor per vehicle ($100/hr), at 5k/wk 400k labor hours, that is 770 people per shift on the line (x13 shift a week = 10k people) . 4k extra deprecation and 6k labor would imply ~580 people per shift (7,500 people total).
bdy0627
Active Member
Remember, Tesla just resolved an SEC lawsuit against the CEO and the company, and still has an ongoing DOJ investigation as well as a separate SEC investigation into another matter. Wall Street is primarily short against Tesla and has the media working for them. The stock isn't just going to sail right through such times, even in good times. Now add in market turbulence with concerns about a deeper market correction or even possibly a developing bear market. As much as I would love to see it go immediately back up, that's probably wishful thinking right now.
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