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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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quite frankly, was there EVER truly a 35K model? Wasn't it always after tax credits and state rebates (and they really like to use the CA rebate as example since it's still the highest on average by sales). so, it was always at 45K to begin with, and even when released will soon be the new price (after 2019).
No. We had +$9k for LR battery and +$5k for PUP included.
The battery just went down -$4k for MR and the base price is $45k.
Once the battery goes down another -$5k for SR and you take out -$5k for PUP then you get $35k.
And whatever incentives are still available at that time, apply to $35k.
 
Was away, in Paris fo the weekend, to see K-Pop sensations BTS, well not my cup of tea, was for one of my daughters... 30 pages to catch up, has taken a day... :confused:

Here are my selected thoughts...

Yeah. Imagine Tesla actually making USB playback work as well as a CD player (currently it's a lot worse). I can't imagine it after five years of contacting every point I can think of.

Tesla has huge disadvantages in software, due to the grotesque failure of their software team to actually listen to customer feedback. There may be an open letter on this published soon.

Biggest issue that I have with Tesla media player is the lack of gapless playback - there's always a 1-2 second pause between tracks, which is really annoying when songs run into each other, which for my preferred genre (progressive roc), is often the case.

Saudi Arabia has always been barbaric and evil, since it was founded by a warlord in a pact with murderous, fanatical iconoclastic religious extremists. They're no better than the Lord's Resistance Army, they just get away with stuff because they have oil and oil is valuable. People are just noticing Saudi Arabia's evil more lately -- maybe because we're less dependent on oil, so less inclined to turn a blind eye? It's also severely unstable and a dangerous place to visit what with the government-sanctioned kidnappings. I hope nobody important from Tesla ever even *goes* there; it's not safe. If the Saudis want to buy stock on the NASDAQ, I guess we can't stop them, but if they want to talk to Tesla, they should have to come to California.

And now the murder of Khashoggi is admitted. I have to say that in this part of the world, this kind of thing is relatively "normal". I find it amusing that Turkey is making so much noise about it, there can't be many bigger thugs than Erdogan, he's a master of locking-up his enemies and journalists.

I hope Tesla keep well-away from KSA.

FWIW, USB playback is better in v9. Still not great (no auto restart after re-entering the vehicle, and some albums show tracks out of order even though the track numbers show correctly), but well ahead of the steaming pile it was in v8.

Recently-played items show in the media player's recent list, and albums generally display in the correct order when navigating through the artist first.

Still work to be done, but they appear to be trying.

Need V9 in Europe then - indeed it's awful in V8, I gave-up using USB.

Are we sure about this? I thought it was a joke.

I took it as a joke too, I don't think Elon would adult to it if it were true (Bored Elon Musk, that is)

1. Moderate his behavior on social media
2. Come thru on his prior comments on being both GAAP and non GAAP profitable in q3 and q4; and
3. Do whatever is possible to come thru on his production prognosis for model 3

I think Elon's doing all of these things. His tweeting of late has been superb, back to his old happy-self I'd say.

Lol Kramer


Is this guy bipolar? Last week he was saying Tesla is too risky to invest, now it's the best...?

Are you sure that Fact Checking is ONE person and not an 'information centre'?!

Seems way too brilliant to be one person and the 'Name' is a giveaway...…….

" You answer the engineering bit and I'll tackle the financials and he can do the fill-in bits and we need it by 4.00pm..."

Legionem autem multi sumus

As it's weekend, thought thismay make interesting reading following on from the discussion of Detroit vs Silicon Valley. British Leyland workers fighting to save the Speke plant in 1978

Rumours of closure, conflicting figures for job losses and a fight to survive in a global car industry - it could have been Vauxhall or Jaguar in 2009, but this story is set on a windswept site at Speke in 1978.

British Leyland's Speke factory symbolised all that was wrong with UK car manufacturing in the dark days of the 1970s, a million miles away from the high performing plants of today at Ellesmere Port and Halewood.

On 9, 10 and 11 December BBC North West Tonight is examining how far the regions car industry has come from those troubled days, and what the future holds.

In 1978 British Leyland's Speke Number Two plant was under threat of closure, afflicted by a series of crippling strikes, low sales of the TR7 it manufactured, and a history of poor industrial relations coupled with inefficiencies.

In 1959, Triumph, as it was then known, had relocated to Speke after the government 'twisted its arm'.



_46878975_tr7a.jpg

The car that was the beginning of the end for Speke, the Triumph TR7
The Speke factory built the Triumph Herald, Vitesse, 1300 and others through the 1960s.

In 1970 British Leyland, who had taken over Triumph, spent £10.5 million building Speke Number Two plant, it was one of the most modern and best equipped plants in Europe designed to build 100,000 vehicles a year all under one roof.

When BBC Nationwide visited in February 1978 the plant only had a few months of life left.

Workers were just returning to work, after a 17 week strike, to fight plans to close the site.

Graham Turner an Industrial Journalist gave his opinions on the problems facing the British Leyland plant in Speke, "The management over the years have I think, been very soft and they've let themselves get in to a position where the shop stewards virtually run the plant," he told BBC Nationwide in 1978.

"They are a pseudo management, the managers can hardly move a foot without getting the agreement of the shop stewards.

"There's a splendid thing called the Mutuality Agreement whose main purpose it seems to me is to stop the place being managed at all."



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There's a very good case for saying Speke is one of the most inefficient car companies, not just in Leyland, but in the world.
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Industrial Journalist Graham Turner speaking in 1978
The factory had been completely turned over to the production of the Triumph TR7, a sports car that was beset by reliability problems.

The TR7 was originally launched in 1974 to target the North American market, but after disappointing sales across the Atlantic it was relaunched in 1976 for the British market.

Workers at the plant didn't have a high opinion of the car, "This car is a disgrace," one told the BBC.

"It never sold, despite all that management have done is say it would be the greatest export they ever had for Leyland.

"It's a load of bloody rubbish that car, one load of bloody rubbish."

Another worker blamed management mistakes for Speke's plight, "There was one time on the TR7 they had 5000 left hand wings for the front end and they sent down to Coventry for 5000 right hand wings," he explained.

"And what happened? They sent 5000 left hands up.

"Now that laid us off for three days, through stupid management.

"That's nothing to do with us, but this has gone on time and time again.

"It's gone beyond a joke now."



_46879043_worker2.jpg

Workers blamed 'stupid management' for the plant's failures
While the TR7's stuttering sales were a major issue for British Leyland, Graham Turner viewed the future of Speke as gloomy, because of a number of inefficiencies at the plant, "Speke is at the bottom of the league - the Leyland league - in so many ways and that's saying a lot," he said.

"If you take productivity Leyland is not a high productivity company and Speke is at the bottom of the productivity league. It's only half as efficient as Abingdon.

"Speke is top of the league for absenteeism, more than double the company average. On Monday's and Friday's anywhere between 15% to 25%.

"Over-manning is 25% worse than the next Leyland plant.

"All that adds up to a highly inefficient plant in a highly inefficient company.

"There's a very good case for saying Speke is one of the most inefficient car companies, not just in Leyland, but in the world."

In 1978 there was also a perception that industry on Merseyside suffered because of the areas reputation for strikes and poor industrial relations', Nationwide reported that "People talk of the so called 'Merseyside Disease', the idea that somehow people here don't work as hard as in other parts of Britain."



_46879044_plant.jpg

The plant shut for good in 1981, the site is now a supermarket
One British Leyland worker thought the problems were a legacy of Liverpool's dock system of labour, "I think it dates back this to our grandfathers and the time when they were on the docks in pens," he told Nationwide.

"It's just a thing that they hate management.

"They don't really hate them, but it dates back to that time when you were picked if your face fitted or if you'd work for less money.

"Even if you work say in Tesco, you still have a little thing about the management."

Workers at Speke were fighting to save their jobs, launching a 'Right To Work' campaign in an effort to keep the plant open.

It would ultimately prove fruitless as the globalisation of the car industry took it's toll, first on Speke, and ultimately on British Leyland.

As Graham Turner recognised in 1978 the company was now competing on a different level, "A 'Right To Work' campaign is alright," he said.

"But I don't think they can have 'A Right To Work When You Feel Like It' campaign, as unfortunately in the Big League that does not work.

"They're not playing in the Merseyside and District Football League, they're playing in a very tough world league."

"I'm afraid they've not been playing the kind of game that keeps you in that league, it just brings relegation and sometimes kills the club."

In May 1978 British Leyland workers at Speke withdrew their opposition to the closure of Speke Number Two and in 1981 all car production ended on the site with closure of the body plant at Speke Number One.

To be fair, BL were producing the biggest pos cars imaginable, they deserved to go bust and the unions just accelerated that.

OK, so it's bugging me enough to pull the trigger and post about it, knowing very well there are strong emotions related to this topic- but anyway, here it goes.

Am I the only one who feels there is some hysteria, or double standard related to the Saudi situation (as it pertains to Tesla)?

Now in no way am I suggesting, that an assassination of a journalist is acceptable! However, I wonder how all those people who have huge issues over the Saudis owning some shares in Tesla or just doing business with them feel about China. A dictatorship is a dictatorship. Just because China has learned the lessons from the Soviets and realized that on an economics level communism is unsustainable, they are not much better with regards to freedoms, or democracy than any other dictatorships.

China is a communist dictatorship where people disappear if the government doesn't like them - like the recent case with the actress and all the others you don't hear about because they are not famous, who BTW might disappear for good. They also restrict civil liberties, monitor and censor the internet and of course there is widespread corruption keeping people loyal and the system alive.

Yet, everyone applauds the Shanghai factory, no one was concerned about Tencent's involvement and if Tesla announced delivering a huge battery farm we would all comment on how good this will be for Chinese air quality.

What I am trying to say is, you either operate on base of principals and do not do any business with those whom you deem morally unacceptable - but then that goes for the iPhone in your pocket too. Or, you are pragmatic and say, OK my company will not actively support these regimes or allow majority control, etc, but serving the billions living there with clean energy products is net beneficial to the entire planet.

So if Tesla were to announce a massive battery deal or setting up a PV factory to supply a huge solar power plant, should we really be upset?

I think China is quite good compared to KSA.

Already suggested up thread in a one line question: "Are you a gestalt entity?" (I had to look it up, but it works.)

Wow, never thought I'd bamboozle an International Professor - will have to put that in my CV.

Tesla skateboard and something vaguely like this chassis perhaps for the more sedate drives (with Jetsons sounds)
View attachment 345817

This is something I find interesting, with Tesla's skateboard you can put any design you like on top and wrapping it. Huge scope for classic designed to be resurrected.

We should have never sold a single weapon to any entity in the entire world. Unless of course our end game is endless war and relentless arms races.

The idea that we spend trillions developing the most advanced weapons by far and then give away our overwhelming superiority for a few billion is too asinine to be understood as anything but intentional.

It's beyond my imagination why weapons are even produced any more. Humongous waste of money and certainly shouldn't be sold to despotic states.

Most of the longs bought their shares years ago and never touched them since -- hence the name "longs".
Shares we purchased years ago have absolutely no influence whatsoever to recent stock price movements.
On the other hand, the 60%-75% of the daily traded volume by shorts has a direct and strong influence.
Thats the statistics you see reported by Papafox every day, and it practically never goes below 50%, mostly above 60%.
So yes, indeed, the shorts have bigger influence than the longs since they do most of the trades.
Pretty obvious logic 101, unless you bury your head in the sand and point to irrelevant numbers sitting in accounts for years.

So in fact what us longs should be doing is selling our shares for the highest price possible, then re-buying them at a higher price again - that would put the SP up in no time!

Sorry for the weekend OT:
Chooose is a climate action platform that battles the core problem of climate change - emissions from big polluters.

Companies that pollute buy carbon credits equivalent to the tons of CO2 they release into the atmosphere.

Chooose also buys carbon credits. But instead of polluting, we tear them up and remove them from circulation completely. The money paid for carbon credits goes to UN-certified clean energy projects in developing countries.
Now, I have some questions:
  • what do you think about it? is is a feasible strategy?
  • I often wonder, in my absolute ignorance, if Tesla could do more with the CARB credits it possess. Elon always said they are receiving pennies on the dollar, and they are going to earn *a lot* of them in the coming months. Do you think it could try to destroy some of them to make it more difficult ot other manufacturers?Is it possible to starve the market?

This looks really interesting, is it legit?

I have it on good authority from my astrology believing wife that Tesla SP is shooting up in 2 weeks. I am already more than a little annoyed that she will claim victory rather than it being anything to do with the predicted Q3 profit...
Anyway, I have work to do - more chickens to count before they lay eggs into my small and singular basket.

I think your wife's methodology will yield just as good results as all the chart-watchers, after 2.5 years of hanging around here I haven't seen anyone predict the future price of $TSLA with any accuracy.

Tea-leaves, thrown bones and the study of entrails also likely more effective...

BUT which Vienna ?

Vienna Georgia
Vienna California
Vienna Virginia
Vienna Missouri

Surly not Vienna Austria. They don't speak english !

Out of character.
I am amazed how many (as a second or third language) write english with such eloquence.

Maybe all of the above?

Good morning/afternoon after nice weekend :)

Sorry mods, start will be a bit out of topic.
Title of this thought would be THE NOSE.
Yes this small sense sitting in the middle of the face and mostly doing nothing. Well not so small in my case.
Someone my argue that we smell with our brains. True. But let us focus on sense we are calling the nose.

The story goes like this:
It was beautiful sunny Saturday. One of the last opportunity to ride my bicycle before colder days that are coming to Europe. I have two bikes possibilities to chose MTB (mountain) and street bike. I like them both but for colder day I rather use MTB. I live in a town with 120k inhabitants so I need 15min to ride out of town to reach the forest in surrounding hills. I go there to recharge my batteries. My wife says that I'm sport addicted. I admit, but that's another story.

The October's forest is beautiful. Leaves still on with multiple colours that only nature can play with. When you spend some time there you start to smell leaves, humus, moisture, mushrooms mixed with fresh air. You fully bread not only because of riding tempo, but because you can! My nose is calibrating with air freshness for which I'm very happy.

Trouble starts when you are coming back to civilisation. First you smell farms, than one guy starting fire burning branches of trees, then you smell heating from wood, oil. You can feel PM10 particles. You can easily detect fumes from diesel, gasoline engine. If you are lucky you can ride after an old engine that consumes engine oil. On buss station you can smoke for free if you want.

When you are riding a bike you change air masses very quickly so the smell differences are very noticeable.
OMG what we are doing?! To the planet, to ourselves.

I'm not only sport addicted but I'm also Tesla addicted.
Which pictures went trough my head?
Now pay attention to those noses:
View attachment 346088 View attachment 346089 View attachment 346090
I could add also pictures of other global warming deniers.
Are these noses work? Do they need some checking as basic sense? Maybe some maintenance?

You are wrong.

For John to sell those 5 shares he has loaned out he will have to recall them from Bob.

doesn't really matter about the shares, just keep lowering your stops.

tl;dr, but I now have a new name for shorty shorts: Fat-Nosed *****s - free biscuit for whomever guesses the final word there and is able to post it.
 
This is very frustrating.
I will never short but have to invest (time) on how to keep the shorts of my back!
It isn't just a matter of shorts: you really should know the terms of your brokerage account.

(I'm not saying I know all the details of mine, I'm just noting that it is the account holder's responsibility. If you don't know the terms what do you really know about the account?)
 
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Not to depress you but Norilsk are the largest producer of nickel (and palladium) in the world. Much of their production is consumed in China, so there’s a reasonable chance that some of it has found its way into whatever device you wrote that message on. Best not to think too hard about the cobalt and tin either.

"Whatever device I wrote on" doesn't contain hundreds of kilograms of nickel.

The fact that Tesla uses primarily North American sourcing for most of its raw materials has always been a big selling point. And it most certainly matters given the sheer scale of how much material goes into an EV battery pack (vs, say, a cell phone battery). It's not okay to just throw up your hands and say, "Oh, but everybody does it". No. You call out the worst sourcing of materials, and you try to avoid the manufacturers who use them.

And yes, different manufacturers - including of cell phones and laptops - do have various sourcing guidelines. For example, several years ago, most of the big western brand names established policies binding on their suppliers to weed out artisinal cobalt from their supply streams. What matters is if customers know about and care about where the raw materials come from. And the answer to that is absolutely calling out when companies use problematic sources.
 
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It isn't just a matter of shorts: you really should know the terms of your brokerage account.

(I'm not saying I know all the details of mine, I'm just noting that it is the account holder's responsibility. If you don't know the terms what do you really know about the account?)

Can't argue with that.
One more item on the to do list.
Thanks Humbaba.
 
Anyone else find it interesting that there’s no consensus about how short selling really works? It’s as if nobody actually knows.
perhaps a salient point would be
?how to stop/end/halt/reduce short selling?
1) take company private, recall _all_ shares
didn't work (yet)
2) have _ALL_ your shares in a non-margin account or at a brokerage that doesn't lend then out to be shorted
If your shares can be loaned to be shorted, _you_ are part of the problem that enables shorts, even a miniscule amount
3) reduce your margin to zero and move _ALL_ Tesla shares to accounts or brokerages where they are not able to be shorted/loaned
(whine, but there a are millions of shares out there)
4) are _you_ enabling shorts in any way?
take steps to reduce/stop it. Ask your brokerage if your shares are loaned out, then ask to either recall or take business elsewhere
5) this should reduce the "Whack_a_Moleshorts" problem a small amount, one step at a time
 
In fact due to the mass reductions of the Standard Range battery pack we might even see lower capacity at introduction (50kWh instead of the 55kWh), which would further increase margins and would also allow an entry price below $35k.
I'm so glad you said that. I had thought similar but was too CS to post for fear of reprisal. My perfect world take on this would be a incremental drop in base price equal to or at least close to the reduction in the FedCred. e.g. 1/1/19, base price lowers by $3,750, 7/1/19, base price lowers another $1,875, and the final base price settles in at $35k-$7.5k=$27,500 for the foreseeable future.
Seems extreme and as a shareholder, can't see a good reason other than to alleviate end of cut off panic, chaos, PO'd customers that missed the cutoff. But what a gesture to the public to be able to say in my best Oprah impression, "you get full credit, you get full credit, you get full credit, forever.
In a later post you mentioned that even if it's a break even margin at base price, surveys have shown less than 10% will actually opt for no upgrades of which I agree.
And lastly, lack of demand doesn't seem to be an issue yet so that lever may never need to be pulled.
 
perhaps a salient point would be
?how to stop/end/halt/reduce short selling?
1) take company private, recall _all_ shares
didn't work (yet)
2) have _ALL_ your shares in a non-margin account or at a brokerage that doesn't lend then out to be shorted
If your shares can be loaned to be shorted, _you_ are part of the problem that enables shorts, even a miniscule amount
3) reduce your margin to zero and move _ALL_ Tesla shares to accounts or brokerages where they are not able to be shorted/loaned
(whine, but there a are millions of shares out there)
4) are _you_ enabling shorts in any way?
take steps to reduce/stop it. Ask your brokerage if your shares are loaned out, then ask to either recall or take business elsewhere
5) this should reduce the "Whack_a_Moleshorts" problem a small amount, one step at a time
If Tesla is sustainably profitable, none of this matters. Positive cash flow will naturally eliminate the shorts. The valuation has to justify the stock price, etc. Little temporary attemps to not loan shares doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Tesla longs shouldn't even be worried about shorts, they're vocal, but all Tesla needs is actual profitablity and then continued growth prospects to send the stock price up. They've gotta get the M3 to mass market pricing and with good margins. That double whammy will solve all these problems.
 
The possibility of a recession could ultimately be great for Tesla. Right now - despite how much Tesla insists it doesn't need to raise capital - there's a market presumption that they're going to need to. A recession makes a capital raise harder, so Tesla's price drops as the market does. But if you eliminate this aspect - if Tesla can demonstrate that, like it says, it doesn't need a capital raise - a recession works favorably:

* Unlike everyone else, they're supply limited, not demand limited. All but the most hardcore bears realize that given how long it's taken Tesla to get to the point of even needing to introduce the MR in the US, that once you add in Europe and Asia, they're booked for quite some time, even ignoring new reservations, and even accounting for recession-related cancellations. This puts Tesla in a favourable position as a safe hedge for people wanting to invest in the auto industry.

* A recession makes everything cheaper for Tesla - raw materials, parts, shipping (both domestic and international), and pretty much everything else. Which boosts Tesla's profit margins. Which lets them go to even cheaper vehicles, increasing their market size even more.
 
The possibility of a recession could ultimately be great for Tesla. Right now - despite how much Tesla insists it doesn't need to raise capital - there's a market presumption that they're going to need to. A recession makes a capital raise harder, so Tesla's price drops as the market does. But if you eliminate this aspect - if Tesla can demonstrate that, like it says, it doesn't need a capital raise - a recession works favorably:

* Unlike everyone else, they're supply limited, not demand limited. All but the most hardcore bears realize that given how long it's taken Tesla to get to the point of even needing to introduce the MR in the US, that once you add in Europe and Asia, they're booked for quite some time, even ignoring new reservations, and even accounting for recession-related cancellations. This puts Tesla in a favourable position as a safe hedge for people wanting to invest in the auto industry.

* A recession makes everything cheaper for Tesla - raw materials, parts, shipping (both domestic and international), and pretty much everything else. Which boosts Tesla's profit margins. Which lets them go to even cheaper vehicles, increasing their market size even more.

@KarenRei

Wouldn't a recession lower Tesla's medium-term ceiling, however? I think some of that expectation is baked into the stock price. Also, hard to see how Tesla shrugs off macros in a recession given how much its been mirroring the NASDAQ as of late.

I mean, I hope you're right -- but those are my concerns; interested to hear opinions to the contrary.
 
The possibility of a recession could ultimately be great for Tesla.

Yeah, agreed, I tried to make a similar point in this comment: "EV sales could also have additional levels of recession resistance: the segment is so supply limited to such extreme levels that it might be able to weather a moderate non-financial and non-housing recession without much of a drop in sales."

But it highly depends on the type of recession and how it affects the competition. Some types of recessions will hit ICE new car sales hard - and there the differential growth Tesla would be able to show could be quite impressive.
 
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