TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

You are wrong.

For John to sell those 5 shares he has loaned out he will have to recall them from Bob.

If this is the sticking point, you're wrong. Both the original owner can put his 10 shares up for sale, and the new owner can sell his 5, at the same time. The shorter has to buy 5 shares on the open market to deliver to the original owner in time to settle his trade.

In the low volume case, if John uses a brokerage, no recall is forced, the shares come from the total pool.
Just like pulling $100 from your bank doesn't cause someone's mortgage to be foreclosed upon.

If all (or a large percentage) of the brokerage's holders sold (to other brokerages), it could cause a recall.

Yah this:

You're wrong too. John may not have loaned out his shares, the broker might have done it from a margin account. John has no clue that the shares were loaned, and doesn't have to do anything before selling them. That's why there are settlement periods, so that the broker can recall the shares (note: after they were sold) to effect settlement.

 

[Steve m]

Perhaps dilutive is the wrong word. I'm not talking about the impact to dividends or voting rights.
I'm talking about the impact to daily stock price in the open marketplace.

If there are more shares available to trade then that inherently puts downward pressure on stock price as it artificially increases the SUPPLY OF TRADEABLE SHARES.

So please answer this one very simple question - When stocks are "loaned" to short sellers, does that increase the number of total available shares available for trading in the open marketplace?

No.

Ounce John has lent out a share he can not lend that share again or sell it until he has recalled it.

Sam can lend or sell it.

But it is still just the one share.

Like the donut. If you lend it or eat it.... You cant eat it again.

 

[dc_h]

No.

Ounce John has lent out a share he can not lend that share again or sell it until he has recalled it.

Sam can lend or sell it.

But it is still just the one share.

Like the donut. If you lend it or eat it.... You cant eat it again.

Get a room!

 

[Unpilot]

If Bob And John and everyone else in this mythical short game would just give the shares to me....I would take care of all of them...virtual and real.

Problem solved.

 

[humbaba]

BASF, Nornickel join forces in EV battery push

Start-up of the plant, which will be able to supply batteries for about 300,000 EVs a year, is planned for late 2020, the supplier said in a statement.

What a push!

300k EVs per year? Is that with 20KWh batteries? Or 100KWh batteries?

[Edit: in case it isn't obvious, # EVs per year is meaningless. The battery output is more informative. Since they aren't saying it only makes sense to assume that it will have minimal output levels. If they were going to compete with a gigafactory they would be bragging about their real output.]

 

[tivoboy]

doesn't really matter about the shares, just keep lowering your stops.

 

[heltok]

Maybe a bit off topic in this thread about what happens to the number of shares when a stock is shorted, but stock is down 2%, the last 1% happened as the other tech companies also lost 1%.

 

[humbaba]

While the percentage is off, $TSLA is mirroring NASDAQ. Keeping an eye out for <$250 action...

 

[Lessmog]

31 is parallel cell count in a group. 96 is the series count (number of cell groups). Modules usually (to me) refers to the two long and two short cell group assemblies. Series count should be even since there are 2 long and 2 short packs.

No reason an SR pack can't have a smaller or odd cell group size, make the groups narrower, and maintain the same pack voltage with the 96 groups in series configuration.

I see. Confusion of terms, my end probably.
Perhaps there are 31 cells (10+11+10) across, grouped in parallel, which are then in turn connected in series as modules lengthwise (25+23+23+25) to make up the total voltage? Am I less confused now? Thanks!

 

[Steve m]

You're wrong too. John may not have loaned out his shares, the broker might have done it from a margin account. John has no clue that the shares were loaned, and doesn't have to do anything before selling them. That's why there are settlement periods, so that the broker can recall the shares (note: after they were sold) to effect settlement.

I tend to speak post settlement. So post settlement. When the deal is done. There are only the legal shares left. What ever pool they came from.

The origional long will have had to recall their shares. The short seller will have had to replace them. Ether by borrowing someone elses or buying them from the market.

It might be an interesting legal point. And I would love to hear the opinion of a lawyer.

But in a commercial sale. It isn't complete until the item is delivered and paid for.

Is this different for stocks?

 

[anthonyj]

This price action is getting on my nerves now

 

[Buddyroe]

Bunch of morons running that company. Their stock and sales are in the toilet, so they pay an actor tons of money to do what? convince the world they are actually the car company of the future? I don't think so.

Just like when Samsung would take shots at Apple .... Ford is feeling the heat and no amount of high paid endorsees will stop what is about to happen to them.

Cheers to the longs

This reminds me of the Mazda commercials where they brag on being the "Driving" car, and Driving Matters, etc.

What they're trying to sell people on is, "hey, we're WAY behind on technology, but for those of you who also have you heads stuck in the sand, WE HAVE THE CAR FOR YOU!!".

Oddly, Mazda's sales continue to decline. Go figure.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone else find it interesting that there’s no consensus about how short selling really works? It’s as if nobody actually knows.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

when the market bounced of the bottom, tsla rallied so hard. Good sign

 

[KarenRei]

BASF, Nornickel join forces in EV battery push

Start-up of the plant, which will be able to supply batteries for about 300,000 EVs a year, is planned for late 2020, the supplier said in a statement.

What a push!

Cliff's Notes: If you buy an EV with the new BASF batteries, they were made with materials from one of the most polluting mining complexes on Earth.

Nickel ore is smelted at the company's processing site at Norilsk. This smelting is directly responsible for severe pollution, that generally comes in the form of acid rain and smog. By some estimates, one percent of global sulfur dioxide emission comes from Norilsk's nickel mines.[18] Heavy metal pollution near Norilsk is so severe that it has now become economically feasible to mine surface soil, as the soil has acquired such high concentrations of platinum and palladium.[19]

The Blacksmith Institute once included Norilsk in its list of the ten most polluted places on Earth, citing 2007 emissions statistics. The institute estimated that nearly 500 tonnes each of copper and nickel oxides, as well as two million tonnes of sulfur dioxide are annually released into the air at the site.[20]

Russia's Federal State Statistics Service lists Norilsk as the most polluted city in Russia. In 2017, Norilsk produced 1.798 million tonnes of carbon pollutants—nearly six times more than the 304.6 thousand tonnes that was generated by Russia's second-most polluted city, Cherepovets. Norilsk, the report states, decontaminates almost half of its emissions.[21]

Never mind the whole "supporting Russian oligarchs and the Russian government" aspect. BASF batteries now equate to "Putin Cells".

 

[jeewee3000]

Anyone else find it interesting that there’s no consensus about how short selling really works? It’s as if nobody actually knows.

Not really.

It just shows it is rather complex subject matter that you can only grasp fully with a few years of training regarding the financial markets (i.e. college or the like).

On a board like this - with all due respect - the majority hasn't got the above knowledge or experience. Of the few that do, most are probably not active posters and have better things to do than try to explain the markets to others for no benefit whatsoever.

Disclaimer: I for one am not versed in financial markets and therefore do not participate in any discussion regarding the workings of the markets. The above reasoning is an analogy drawn from my profession as an attorney: I sometimes read on legal forums where 99% of posts are plain wrong, but I have no desire/motive whatsoever to correct anyone.

TL;DR: take all information you find on the internet with a grain of salt and do your own research on the topics you really care about.

 

[avoigt]

Anyone else find it interesting that there’s no consensus about how short selling really works? It’s as if nobody actually knows.

Thats indeed interesting. I am not surprised that I do not know all about it and because of that I will never short a company. One of my rules is never invest in anything you don't fully understand.

Still I am surprised that opinions here are that divided.

Maybe its a bad analogy but if you play roulette for instance in a casino people believe they understand it and try to calculate likelihoods which are in most cases wrong and at the end the Bank always wins. If you tell them the likelihood to win they call you wrong.

The same seems to be the case with complex instruments at the stock or bond market where I sometimes get the feeling the banks by purpose try to imply its easy to understand but investors do not really understand what they are investing in and loose.

 

[HG Wells]

Anyone else find it interesting that there’s no consensus about how short selling really works? It’s as if nobody actually knows.

To Boss Short:

They don't know. They really don't know.

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[humbaba]

This price action is getting on my nerves now

While the magnitude of action is amplified, this is mirroring macros. It aggravates me as well. I remain skeptical of any short term gains being realized. I think for many, $TSLA is not a good investment:

1) Stock price only looks reliably strong on long term horizons
2) Volatility is high which is conducive to ulcers
3) Stock price is heavily manipulated downward by outside interests
4) ROI is not likely to be good compared to other select stocks

I'm more enthusiastic about the company than I am about the financial ROI for investing in $TSLA. While I think it will happen, I am only confident in the long term (at least 5-10 years -- it could be sooner but there is IMO nothing compelling to be so).

Of course, options or swing trading could always work out -- there are other ways to invest than holding stocks for the long term. Not an advice.

 

[Drax7]

Not quite clear why the stock does not respond to
Very good ongoing production increases .

With Great sales growth all other issues are secondary.

What are the impediments to stock rising?
Elon Tweet risk, bond maturity risk, interest rates risk,
What will it take to overcome them