TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[NikeWings]

No, I don’t think the Twitter account belongs to him.

Ahhh I didnt know it was a twitter account - only read his ears were talking. Yah only one TSLA tweet master.

 

[sundaymorning]

Why else would Elon be buying $20 million in shares before earnings? hmmmm, could it be that we’re going to be heavily cash flow positive and perhaps, dare I say, profitable?

 

[ZachF]

$270

 

[KarenRei]

Broke $270

Mood:

"Euphooooria! Forever, ’till the end of time! From now on, only you and I! We’re going up-up-up-up-up-up-up!!!"

Actually, I'm listening to Cyberia Mix right now, but that song immediately came to mind watching the stock chart Hmm, come to think of it, the repeated chant of "Viva! Viva! La revolución!" in the current song seems fitting as well...

 

[HopJokey]

Citron (Andrew Left), the group that mainly shorts stocks is now long TSLA:

Citron Research on Twitter

 

[ZachF]

Citron, the group that mainly shorts stocks is now long TSLA:

Citron Research on Twitter

...Complete with salty reply from Smeagol.

 

[humbaba]

This got me wondering - does this give everyone a chance to upgrade their FCF forecasts, so that Tesla can't get a "beat"? :Þ

I remember seeing this before with a different company. Stock took a hit after the earnings call because even though the company had done everything right according to their own projections and guidance, some analysts had given overly optimistic forecasts. I remember thinking, "what BS that the company's stock takes a hit because some blow hard analyst couldn't predict correctly."

So, yeah, unfortunately, I think that is certainly a risk.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Something just happened: We bounced to green numbers in pre-market

No it’s been brewing for a year

 

[humbaba]

Why else would Elon be buying $20 million in shares before earnings? hmmmm, could it be that we’re going to be heavily cash flow positive and perhaps, dare I say, profitable?

what? And here I thought the only reason he was getting $20m was because that was what Tesla paid the Short Enrichment Committee. Say it ain't so!

 

[EVMeister]

I hate to say it in case of jinxing, but it really feels like the tides might have started turning.

 

[Fact Checking]

This got me wondering - does this give everyone a chance to upgrade their FCF forecasts, so that Tesla can't get a "beat"? :Þ

So they certainly tried that trick with the Q3 deliveries report, and it worked to a certain degree, because delivery reports are highly Tesla specific, and also because the non-linear Model 3 ramp-up's math is essentially guesswork with broad error bars.

This trick shouldn't work nearly as well with cash flow estimates, because if they increase FCF they increase all future earnings of Tesla (=valuation) and remove big sources of perceived risk such as debt repayments.

FCF and associated properties are not Tesla specific at all, and there's a lot of skill on Wall Street in seeing through self-serving FCF FUD and obfuscation.

In short I don't think it should work for Q3, and if Tesla repeats it in Q4 then it should definitely not work - but markets and prices are hard to predict...

 

[NikeWings]

I also think that someone big decided it's time for some earnings play, even though we have rough macro

Or maybe big money is/will finally getting on board? TROW stepped it up recently, but look at these TSLA holders and where their losing cross-holds are invested? Just 10% of that $$$ coming to TSLA would begin to stablize things and possibly reset the momentum. Anxious for next round of 13Fs.....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Edit: looks like the second option.

Well there's this: (let's note these numbers for tomorrow to watch for a beat)

Will Progress in Production Aid Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 Earnings?

"The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Total Automotive revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is pegged at $5 billion. The company registered Total Automotive revenues of $3.6 in second-quarter 2018.

"The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy, Generation and Storage revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is pegged at $473 million. The company registered Energy, Generation and Storage revenues of $374 million in second-quarter 2018.

"The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Services and Other revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is pegged at $312 million. The company registered Services and Other revenues of $270 million in second-quarter 2018."

 

[ZachF]

Up almost 5% with dumpster fire macros.

EDIT- over 5% now

 

[Chickenlittle]

Ok interesting that caterpillar is investing in fisker based on solid state lithium ion battery tech but I am missing something. Where are patents related to this. If you are close enough to attract significant investor from a large company why are there no patents to protect their advancements. Are there some that I have missed? Also don’t understand caterpillars interest in this tech. Heavy equipment to use battery tech? Doesn’t sound right

 

[mongo]

Why else would Elon be buying $20 million in shares before earnings? hmmmm, could it be that we’re going to be heavily cash flow positive and perhaps, dare I say, profitable?

If you are referring to the 8-K, that purchase is "during the next open trading window", not immediately.
However, his recent 10 million and 25 million purchases (while currently a loss) do bode well.

 

[Drax7]

Citron report highlights what the rational expectations are.

It’s even scary bullish

 

[RoadsterPlease]

imagine we would've had a stable market in october, tsla would trade at 350 guaranteed.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here's what I would really want Elon to address (with numbers) or be asked about during the CC:

1. If Q3 was profitable, were the numbers "massaged" in any way to make the financials better than they normally would be? Any ZEV credits used? Any significant costs or expenses deferred?
2. Update on timeline for the new Tesla NN chip entering volume production. Also, are the current Nvidia chips sufficient for final version (all expected features active) of EAP? Will all customers who paid for FSD since that option was available to order be upgraded to the new chip for free?
3. Current M3 production levels, and the expected (realistic) production levels by EOY
4. Commentary on M3 demand mix at the moment (this may put to bed the "demand for top-end versions has dried up" narrative)
5. Any specific difficulties in getting the M3 certified / approved for sale in Europe? If not, what criteria does the management use to determine a good time to start European sales of the M3. There's been a lot of FUD peddled on that recently.
6. Total number of Tesla VPs / C-level executives currently active. Hopefully this would put the recent departures into some sort of perspective (e.g. two VPs left, 35 remaining)
7. Who will the new chairman be, and what factors contributed to the decision (I expect this to be announced either in the investors letter or during the CC).

I think I know the answer to most of these, but it's important to get clear info and confirmation directly from the management, to kill some of the short theses. Just to force them to lift those goal posts and move them further... they might strain their backs or something in the process.

Other topics to be addressed only if positive: Model Y launch and planned production facility; the Shanghai gigafactory.

Later edit: I am aware that many of these questions can be answered based on info found either in tweets or replies to tweets or in previous CCs. I think, however, that many of the theses put forward by shorts gain traction because many investors are not as granular in analysing the available information as some of the people on this forum. The CC is a great opportunity to put out specific information and promote the right narrative, and it is generally more difficult to dismiss if done properly, simply because more people pay attention to it than to individual tweets scattered across several months.

Interesting, but I wouldn’t want any of that. I don’t think making any of that stuff more clear helps TSLA even a little bit.

a) release report
b) repeat report information to analyst question
c) repeat report information to analyst question
d) thru y) see b)
z) hang up

 

[cheshire cat]

Ok interesting that caterpillar is investing in fisker based on solid state lithium ion battery tech but I am missing something. Where are patents related to this. If you are close enough to attract significant investor from a large company why are there no patents to protect their advancements. Are there some that I have missed? Also don’t understand caterpillars interest in this tech. Heavy equipment to use battery tech? Doesn’t sound right

Think some already do up hill empty down hill loaded---regen " ON "--simples