Jayjs20
Member
There's one (kinda), can I get another?
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I agree with you and as Peter Thiel says - I wouldn't bet against Elon. Then again, I wouldn't bet against Neroden. This is like choosing between parents. Can I live with Uncle Factchecker instead?
Scores on the doors:
ER - 8/10 (perfection regarding the manufacture of free cash flow but some factory pics would have been nice for the family album)
Call - 4/10 (dare I say - a little dull... I will show myself out)
Europe: +9,04%
I feel like anything less than 12% is a disappointment.
Screw the wash sale rule. Unless you have such staggering losses that no amount of gains can offset them on your taxes, just buy in if you think your gains will easily outweigh the tax write-off. Of course if you don't think this will happen, you should probably hold back.
Not an advice etc.
You are correct. It applies to both.I think if he buys options he'll also be screwing the wash sale rule. IANATE but I believe the wash rule applies to stocks and options.
What is Unkown?Europe down 2% now in pre-market. Thx for 50 more shares...
Are we still on for 007's prediction a year ago? (12th Oct 17):
$550 is merely a pit stop
By mid 2019 this could very possibly be a $2900 stock or 8 X current SP of $355
That's exactly how I'm positioned
Let the games begin
Who do I need to call to make this happen?
Loved the last sentence: the moderator stated that this result came out of nowhere, and Gene Munster immediately corrected that by saying that was not correct, that it was always the plan of Tesla to get to this result, but that nobody believed it.Gene Munster: it’s not a rabbit out of a hat, they’ve said they were going to do this. Love it.
Gene Munster: If Tesla CEO Elon Musk didn't 'mess it up,' the stock would be over $400
I agree with you and as Peter Thiel says - I wouldn't bet against Elon. Then again, I wouldn't bet against Neroden. This is like choosing between parents. Can I live with Uncle Factchecker instead?
I remember 4 years ago, after the debut of AP1, back when it could read stop signs and lights, come to a complete stop, drive highway to highway; at the first customer demos, it actually stopped at the stop sign at the end of the track. And then shortly thereafter Musk made some comments that FSD was just a couple years out, with vision and no lidar. I was just a noob here at TMC during that time. Talks on the investor threads were talking of the coup Tesla was going to pull off with FSD. The daydreaming and excitement was real. Tesla was so far ahead of every other automaker, the data it could gather because every car was learning from every other car. FSD seemed it really was just right around the corner. Those were exciting times, but there was one person that really was quite the buzzkill. He kept saying that everyone that said FSD was only a couple years away was WRONG. I remember being quite annoyed that he spoke with such unfounded authority. He could’ve at least said it was just his opinion, right? And at times it would take over the conversation of the investor thread. This one poster telling most of us here we were wrong, and no matter the quantity of people that tried to dispute his claim, many experts in similar fields could not dissuade him. Eventually it appeared the board just agreed to disagree. Long story, long, that dissident was @neroden.I'm afraid I agree with @diatz and disagree with @neroden regarding FSD: Tesla is way ahead in the FSD game today. It's just that not even competitors like Waymo appear to have realized this:
I expect FSD and transportation-as-a-service to become major drivers of Tesla revenue and valuation.
- The Tesla AI chip is a game-changer: designed for NN and only for NN processing gives them significant advantages compared to NVidia - and Tesla's first-principles design gives them an advantage even over Google's third generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU).
- Tesla's chip was designed by two chip design legends: the guy who designed the first x86-64 CPU at AMD (Jim Keller) which CPU has beaten Intel at their own game, and by the guy who designed Apple's first own CPUs, including the first 64-bit Apple CPU (Pete Bannon). Bet against these guys in the AI chip design space like you'd bet against Elon in the reusable rockets space. (Note that after finishing the AI chip design Jim Keller went to Intel's server division, probably pursuing another dream job - Pete Bannon has productized the HW3 design, implementation and roll-out.)
- The next generation Tesla neural network layers are already in the V9 firmware, probably testing-only in shadow mode. Here's @jimmy_d's tear-down of that network: "I didn’t expect to see a camera agnostic network for a long time. It’s kind of shocking." Note that V9 includes that new network but it's probable that only HW3 can run it efficiently. I think the new network was included to support field-test units of Tesla HW3 with v9 firmware as-is, and perhaps to run it in shadow mode on HW2.5 at very low frame-rates.
- Another quote from jimmy_d:
- "This V9 network is a monster, and that’s not the half of it. When you increase the number of parameters (weights) in an NN by a factor of 5 you don’t just get 5 times the capacity and need 5 times as much training data. In terms of expressive capacity increase it’s more akin to a number with 5 times as many digits. So if V8’s expressive capacity was 10, V9’s capacity is more like 100,000. It’s a mind boggling expansion of raw capacity. And likewise the amount of training data doesn’t go up by a mere 5x. It probably takes at least thousands and perhaps millions of times more data to fully utilize a network that has 5x as many parameters.
This network is far larger than any vision NN I’ve seen publicly disclosed and I’m just reeling at the thought of how much data it must take to train it. I sat on this estimate for a long time because I thought that I must have made a mistake. But going over it again and again I find that it’s not my calculations that were off, it’s my expectations that were off."- The unnecessary and uneconomical LIDAR detour the others are taking might take 1-2 years for them to undo. Elon correctly saw it that the LIDAR approach is a dead end and Tesla now has a significant head start with 8 cameras in every consumer car, and probably up to 30 in the Tesla Semi.
A typo Nick...What is Unkown?
Surprise of Q3 letter: bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019.
That 12 to 18k is only form Fremont and China. Euro production not included.What I'm hearing is they are planning to make 12k-18k/week M3 longer term. I'd never heard larger than 10k/wk. That's bullish. And making them in EU/China is better, as shipping costs will be lower.
Loved the last sentence: the moderator stated that this result came out of nowhere, and Gene Munster immediately corrected that by saying that was not correct, that it was always the plan of Tesla to get to this result, but that nobody believed it.
‘Nobody’ definitely doesn’t include a lot of the members here.