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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Sorry boys but I just sold a little.

And bought a model 3, just a lemur because 2 kids and 1 engineer income household can’t really justify 70k auto.

That being said, most of the financing came with this week’s options plays.

Thank you all for advice and technical responses.

Edit: legit love you all and have been waiting for this day for 7 years. Cannot wait.

Can’t decide if I’ll name it spiegel or Einhorn
 
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Who sells this cheap gas that you speak of and where can it be purchased?
At this point I would like to remind our American friends about gas prices in Europe vs. the US. Where I live we pay the equivalent of $5.3 per gallon. So, in the everlasting words of the poet JT, "cry me a river". :p
 
I haven’t seen anyone comment on power NN. Today I noticed pedestrians and people on bicycles showing up on my UI. No car update done this week so I am wondering if it’s improvement in NN. thinking about puttin my dogs in the middle of road to see if they are picked up too:)
Maybe because there's a thread for that? Maybe.
 
Karen.... always good to take some money off the table... but don’t anchor your viewpoints to TSLA 2014-2018. When Tesla stock jumps, it’s saddest to see long term bulls make a double while daytraders make a triple. There’s a reason why Buffett says never to sell your winners.
buffett also says, he can't time the market. Some people can. ;-)
 
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First time posting. I've been lurking since the 420 tweet and bought in at $370. Executed then did research, I know I know, that was not very bright of me lol. I've been reading this thread for an hour or so every day since then. Really appreciate the vast amount of knowledge that many of you here have.

I can't believe I'm complaining about this, but I wish I have enough time to read all your great posts. I'm wondering if anyone has a working script that sorts posts by the amount of likes and/or informative ratings? i.e. user enters the criterion for the number of likes/upvotes and the script will pump out a "highlight of the day" report. I did a quick Google but didn't find any. If no one has it, I'll try to create it and will share with whoever is in the same boat.

Cheers.
 
Sorry I copy paste the transcript here. I think it's important everyone read what Ellison said about Elon and Tesla.

The full transcript of Ellison's Tesla comments:

"I think that's right question if you're a betting man, right? So if you have anything to do with them trying to predict markets in the investment community in doing this stuff, that's the question. What -- I think I can tell you what the end state looks at, right, but it's so crazy -- it's very hard -- what I really want to know, if I'm an investor, by the way, and my second largest investment, I will disclose it now, I'm not sure if many people know. I'm very close friend's with Elon Musk, and I'm a big investor in Tesla. And so Tesla had a good day, and I think Tesla has a lot of upside. Do you know the most popular car by revenue in the United States over the last 3 months? The #1 car in the United States by revenue and there Tesla model 3 outsold in revenue. Forget about Ford and GM, they weren't even close, outsold Honda and Toyota. I loved all the articles about -- and I would -- Elon learn doesn't know what he's doing, the pictures of him smoking dope and the Wall Street Journal writing all these articles is going to have to go out of money. I'm really smart. I work for the Wall Street Journal, I know a lot about writings with the Wall Street Journal. (inaudible) the Wall Street Journal. I love -- I read it every day. I do. Is my favorite -- to be honest, it's my favorite newspaper. Yes, that is my favorite newspaper more than the economist now. And so I almost people got all the money. This is all nonsense and it's who are you? This guy is lending rockets. He's landing rockets on robot drone reps in the ocean, and you're saying he doesn't know what he's doing. Well, who else is landing a rocket? Have you ever land a rocket on a robot drone? Who are you? I mean, okay, okay, you're telling me he's an idiot. You're telling me he's an idiot. just want to know who you are so I know why should I believe you as opposed to my friend, Elon who -- and we're out here watching this rocket land, which I think is really cool. You are there in front of your Apple Macintosh and typing up an article saying Elon is an idiot. Okay, all right. Have a good day. Tesla had really good day. But picking what quarter, let me tell you something about Tesla. Elon says are you going to get the get this entry will ramp up the Model 3s by Q3, and he is told the whole Tesla team excited and trying to get this done. And we missed Q3, God, dammit, we're Q4 for sure, but motivating the team, setting tough goals. But it turned out is very hard to predict what quarter, so there was some relation to her question, my little riff here. You're saying, okay, when -- what quarter is Oracle just going to surprise you. Where this revenue come from? We were expecting this. This is not any -- we can -- this point just kind of -- it's not going to our chart from nowhere. You revenues kind of flat but actually it's not flat. Some things are growing very rapidly, and other things are shrinking. And we're kind of managing to flat. The only way could be flat for this length of time is if we are kind of deemphasizing businesses we don't care about, growing businesses we do care about, and going through this transition and a kind of a market acceptable weight, and that's what we've been doing trying completely -- so underneath the covers, you get -- underneath the revenue, and you look at this business. Some of the businesses are exploding. Some of the businesses we just don't care about. We want to shrink them. And we don't those -- a lot of businesses that we don't care about. Anyway, there's no way to -- until we get the first date -- a few data points on autonomous database to see what the adoption rate is and kind of start to measure the slope of that curve, there is no real way for me to tell you -- I mean, is it first calendar quarter '19. Is it in the second calendar quarter '19, I don't know. But I do know like Elon knows. It's a pretty good product. We got to get it to the market. And we're going to sell a lot this stuff. I just can't tell you exactly what quarter. Now, when it hits, and you got a couple of data points, you're going to let say it hits in Q2 and you get another data point in Q3, start to sense the slope in the curve, it's growing and then all you guys can place your bets. But I fully understand somebody who would say, well, I don't see it in the numbers. However, as I say, nice presentation. When is it going to show up in the numbers feel like I'm just cannot wait to until when it shows in the numbers. You can do that. I mean that's a choice. I could've waited in terms of buying a lot of Tesla, wait until it shows up to the numbers. Prove to me but I went like we have dinner got damn Tesla factory. Go to the Tesla factory, I went home, Elon slept there. Go to the Tesla factory, look at the Model 3 line, look at down Model 3, go to the Giga factory, to all of this stuff, talk to the people, talk to -- figure out -- good product, really cool assembly line. Giga factory, amazing. Are there problem. Yes, there's huge problems with Panasonic because you're trying to get these batteries to work and your primary manufacturing provider is having problems. You're got to work through that engineering. It's an interim project work. It's hard to get all the pieces together. But if you have all these pieces together, it's hard for other people to compete. And I think at this point with autonomous database and Gen 2 data center, we have -- we've got a really firm infrastructure foundation underneath our most strategic product which is our database where and most of the world's data being stored and that. We think it's going to migrate to a combination of our public cloud and cloud customer. I don't know where else it's going to go. You can't -- people have tried -- believe me, people have tried to move an Oracle workloads to Redshift or Aurora. They even try to move it to Microsoft SQL Server. It doesn't work. We're much faster. We have many more features. There's a reason why we beat Microsoft in the database business. We beat IBM in the database business. We do have a majority of the database business. But most of the world's data -- valuable data is in the Oracle Database. Now we have an even better database in the cloud and it's very easy for people to move and they're going to start in earnest in 2019, and where this ends up? Again, low bid, $100 billion business. What do you think they -- I can tell you some SaaS margins. When we get a new SaaS customer, we get another SaaS customers, what do you think the margins of others give $5 million a year, nice contract. $5 million a year to run ERP in the cloud. What percent of that $5 million do you think is margin, incremental?"
 
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Karen.... always good to take some money off the table... but don’t anchor your viewpoints to TSLA 2014-2018. When Tesla stock jumps, it’s saddest to see long term bulls make a double while daytraders make a triple. There’s a reason why Buffett says never to sell your winners.

Believe me, I get that. But it's also dumb to leave yourself overexposed to a single stock, when you have a capital project of your own (a house) whose final cost is an unknown. I have to manage my risk properly against the consequences of being wrong. And because I took good advantage of those low prices (my lowest and biggest buy being at $248,66 ;) ), I'm in for more than I'm comfortable with.

That said, I'll probably overexpose myself again later because, let's face it... the bear thesis is only wounded, not dead. ;) They still think this is a one-time thing. They think GF3 is a potemkin village. They still think Tesla will need a capital raise. They still think Musk is a liar who's going to jail. Look at the analyst views after the report - still lots of price targets in the low $200s. And as long as the wounded bear thesis is still fighting, the stock will resist running too high. It's after Q4 that I see the potential for a long run-up.

But for now I have to trim back a bit. Put a bit of that cash that I took from the pockets of short sellers back in the bank ;)
 
Shorts are capitulating everywhere....I haven't seen this one reported yet:

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