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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The original case appears to be as per Reuters:
The case is Wochos v Tesla Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California, No. 17-05828.
Amended complaint on 9/28, nothing filed since 10/3

upload_2018-10-26_15-46-22.png
 
Various online charting, I'm looking for how many times a level has been rejected, married some some volume accumulation level going into the resistance level.

332 and 344 are only 1-1.5 levels of resistance, not failing twice or more. 355 is much more significant. With Calls out in Jan/Feb above 380-400 if one is getting $$ for those in this run up, think about scaling as they bounce higher.

@tivoboy Fascinated with options strategies -- can you explain how scaling would work in this context in a little more detail? Can I take that to mean picking up options deeper OTM as the underlying stock price rises?
 
"didn't immediately respond". I bet Tesla responded and the WSJ decided not to print the response. It does not say Tesla did not respond or said no comment. Tesla probably said something like, "We are unaware of any changes in the DOJ investigation."
That doesn't exactly fit what the WSJ wants to print so they exercised the choice to just leave that out and their short buddies exercised a few more positions.

Looks like there was a response (via reddit):
Tesla says has not received subpoena on Model 3 production | Reuters
 
Alright, I don't have exact dates of conversations and realizations but the story I heard...

The contractor for the module line for months was "we almost got this it's fine just a bit more time" which is typical from a failing contractor. It wasn't until Elon being his micro manage self went down there and gathered some heads for chopping did Tesla realize holy *sugar* you guys really don't have this. The cause was a bit of classic Elon hubris as Tesla not only wanted the most automated line but also with a very small footprint. You ended up with overly complicated machines that they couldn't even get the programming right for. Anyways then Tesla takes over and their guys think "well I'm sure we can work out the last few kinks and get this *sugar* running". Some time goes by (not entirely sure how much) and they realize holy *sugar* we have to start from scratch. They pulled Tesla people into the project but also hired outside help to redo the whole programming of the line. Which Elon openly talked about. The outside help was not Grohmann as they were working on building a line from scratch, robot and programming wise, in parallel in case Tesla couldn't get the original line to work. With Tesla staff and outside contractors working 12-14 hour days 7 days a week they got the original line working.

This is why the DOJ investigating a company for missing a production rate by a measly 6 months is asinine. Any large company has many groups saying many things, translated by managers trying to look good, getting telephoned up the chain. Not even taking into account Elons honest and optimistic nature. It has to be massively obvious deception for it to be CRIMINALLY (DOJ, beyond reasonable doubt) proven in court. This is why you hardly ever see the DOJ look into *sugar* like this, except when it's Tesla apparently.

Anyways, that was the major factor for the delay as I understand it so unless they are looking into something else, from what I heard, the whole thing is a distraction.

/End rant
Not an advice
blah

So here is there 10/2/2017 deliveries report statement:

Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model 3. Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks. Although the vast majority of manufacturing subsystems at both our California car plant and our Nevada Gigafactory are able to operate at high rate, a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.

It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.
and the same Q press release:

To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.

While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear. Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January. With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate. That will enable us to make the next generation of automation even better while making our capex spend significantly more efficient.
Neither of which seem unreasonably stated. What is the actual worst statement in regard to possible infraction? If the 20k in December was only referenced back in June/July and then dropped that seems perfectly reasonable to me.
 
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Yeah, that's a Market Maker enforcing the closing price at $330.90 so Max Pain was worth a $76.1M buy order in the final second of trading.

Market manipulation is a thing. Eight billion dollars changed hands today in TSLA. :eek:

Can you elaborate for this noob pls Lodger.

Why is $330.x versus $329.9x so significant?

Is it a psychological thing or is some step function at play?
 
Some dates to watch:

View attachment 347229

This is the November/December US congressional calendar. Congress is in session right now and will continue to be until 13 November. Yellow is when a full congress is in session; blue is senate-only.

Obviously most people are concerned about the macro effects of election day results, so no need to rehash peoples' theories. The big question is, when might a bill to reformulate the EV tax credit go under consideration, if it were to happen? Technically it could be as early as the 13th, but that seems highly improbable that we'd see anything in that first week. On the other hand, if they want to leave the effects of the credit uninterrupted, they'd need to finish it in December - through reconciliation in the House by the 13th and the Senate by the 14th.

Such a bill making news (news = any indication that it might pass soon) could be a significant TSLA mover. Obviously a renewal would be a big boost. The effects of eliminating the credit aren't as clear; that would improve Tesla's competitiveness, but decrease the addressable market size. Wall Street would probably interpret it as an overall negative.
I think you meant they're in recess until Nov 13th, at which point they'd be back in session?
 
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Amended complaint on 9/28, nothing filed since 10/3

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So if it's available and either of you have time over the weekend can you check what's new in the amended complaint filed 9/28? I also see Tesla filed a motion on October 1 and the judge granted it on 10/3.
I can't access the files though plus my US legal understanding goes as far as courtroom TV dramas...
 
I don't get it. What's the point of a superbowl ad? Is Tesla starving for demands?
I don't know, but I can guess. I watch late-night TV, and am subjected to a parade of [inane] car ads. Every time I see one, as I hit the mute, I think "These guys are so f***ed," and I wonder what a Tesla ad would look like in the same time slot. I think that impulse is strong here.
 
Today we have seen a very strong performance of Tesla. Against all overall negative market sentiment, recession fear and macros the stock found only one direction and that was up.

Even when WSJ/Reuters tried their old FUD approach the stock dipped sharp and short and changed course still in the green just to establish a new upward trend.

Be assured that each of this FUD attacks make the SP more resilient against the next one and asking me its the last the shorts have left. So with every failed attempt the next one will be even more shallow.

Shorts lost control today. If no substantial bad news appear this weekend be it macro or Tesla related we can fairly assume that another strong week is ahead of us.
 
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Can you elaborate for this noob pls Lodger.

Why is $330.x versus $329.9x so significant?

Is it a psychological thing or is some step function at play?

Max pain for today's Options expiries is at the $330 strike/closing price:

Max pain, or the max pain price, is the strike price with the most open contract puts and calls - and the price at which the stock would cause financial losses for the largest number of option holders at expiration.
Max Pain Definition | Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp
 
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