TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

A tasteful one though. Not too expensive.

 

[defc0n]

Agree, just did, thanks!

Of course Nasdaq decides to suck again today. Crazy. Hoping for good numbers...

 

[Ludalicious]

Upper BB is 328, closed at 334. No sign of stopping just yet.

View attachment 348163

Currently undersold and well above the 50MVG. I am going to wait a little to get back in. Tesla has been going strong though... Dam

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case you are wondering, in his tweet Elon is referring to his bio on Tesla IR web site. This got the shorts trollsphere going today.

Elon Musk | Board of Directors | Tesla, Inc.

Plus, the Tesla IR website no longer shows any titles on the BoD page:

2018-08-31:


2018-10-29:


So there's moves a foot. Likely at least the new Chairman announcment coming soon. Anybody know the deadline date?

 

[Tslynk67]

Well some big stocks were down nearly 10% at one point today and at the same moment $TSLA only -1%

Seriously, it's like a 10% green day. Love it!

Many big tech stocks now "corrected" down 20-30% in the last week, $TSLA up the opposite way. All things being equal, we should ride it up higher.

 

[Brando]

Well technically ford wasn’t given a choice.

It was a low interest LOAN - of course they had a choice - just stupid to pass up cheap money Tesla borrowed $465 million, I think.
Chrysler & GM were bankrupt, so they could NOT to apply for these loans. about $16 billion total loans.
Fuel-Efficient Auto Loan Program Looking Beyond the Big 3

 

[Foghat]

Elon Musk | Board of Directors | Tesla, Inc.

He seems to be referencing his chairmanship being taken away, which he’s saying to all naysayers you can take any title you want, the world knows where the captain of the ship is at...

BTW, as shareholders, we still get to vote on our company’s chair, not the SEC.

 

[Artful Dodger]

He seems to be referencing his chairmanship being taken away, which he’s saying to all naysayers you can take any title you want, the world knows where the captain of the ship is at...

BTW, as shareholders, we still get to vote on our company’s chair, not the SEC.

Note that he didn't just delete his own titles, nobody on the BoD has any Titles currently:

 

[dandurston]

You are wrong about both directions, the conversion rules of the notes are more favorable to Tesla than the outcomes you describe:

• Below $360, as per the 2019 notes prospectus Tesla has the right to increase the conversion rate, i.e. reduce the conversion price all the way down to around $250, at their discretion. So they don't have to go through a capital raise if they want to induce conversion to shares.
• Beyond $360 Tesla doesn't risk dilution, as Tesla has the right to pay the notes in cash. Tesla pays $920m and a "hedge contract" provides the rest of the cash. (Up to an about $560 share price IIRC.)
• Elon also reiterated it several times that they'll pay back the notes on cash, regardless of the stock price.
• Tesla made enough cash in Q3 alone pay off the notes in cash. By March 2019 they'll have the Q4 and a good chunk of Q1 income as well.

So conversion to shares and dilution is very unlikely to happen at this stage, regardless of the share price.

Thanks for this. I appreciate you explaining my error.

 

[brian45011]

I thought I heard Elon specifically say with emphasis that these bonds will be paid off in cash. So all this other stuff is moot.

Fire Away!

Every quarterly filing since the May 2013 prospectus for the 2018 notes has stated Tesla's intention to repay the principal of all convertible note issues in Cash:

Since we expect to settle in cash the principal outstanding under the 1.5% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2018, the 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2019, the 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2021 and the 2.375% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2022, we use the treasury stock method when calculating their potential dilutive effect, if any.
​

However, the only convertible issue that has actually been settled is the 2018 Notes, and somehow stock was used for much of those recent settlements:

"In the second quarter of 2017, $144.8 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged for 1,163,442 shares of our common stock (see Note 14, Common Stock ). As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $1.1 million.

In the third quarter of 2017, $42.7 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 250,198 shares of our common stock (see Note 12, Common Stock) and $32.7 million in cash. As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.3 million.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, $12.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 96,634shares of our common stock (see Note 14, Common Stock). As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.1 million
​

It's akin to Lucy yanking the football away at the last second: perpetually and totally unexpected.

 

[SpaceCash]

These guys are STILL shorting into a raging pot of ultra bullishness. They're insane.

 

[SpaceCash]

Does anybody realistically believe any big fish are waiting on the 10-Q to jump in?

 

[CaliBear1]

OH SO CLOSE!

I set a sell order of 20% of my shares at 350 to fund my 3PD. I stood in line pre-reveal and have patiently waited for circumstances to align. So close. Patience grasshopper, patience.

 

[dqd88]

Well some big stocks were down nearly 10% at one point today and at the same moment $TSLA only -1%

Seriously, it's like a 10% green day. Love it!

Many big tech stocks now "corrected" down 20-30% in the last week, $TSLA up the opposite way. All things being equal, we should ride it up higher.

Thoughts on when you think things bottom out (for overall tech)?

 

[Foghat]

Note that he didn't just delete his own titles, nobody on the BoD has any Titles currently:
View attachment 348175

I think he’s going to make his new title “Magnet of Stuff.”

Or

“Magnet Of Stuff For Eternal Time”

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anybody realistically believe any big fish are waiting on the 10-Q to jump in?

Well, 584K shares trade in the first minute today. I'd say that's jumping in, soaked up the shorting like a beryllium jacket. Rinse, Repeat, as long as those shorts wanna give'um.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think he’s going to make his new title “Magnet of Things”

LOL, Sugar Magnet?

 

[SpaceCash]

I'm so hoping for a VW/Porschesque squeeze. I've seen people argue against it, saying it's not possible these days but the arguments have not been compelling to me

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thoughts on when you think things bottom out (for overall tech)?

Nov 6.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Can't believe I missed the September sales announcement, gonna lose my fanboy card if I don't watch out.

Gross sales(revenue not sales) of Model 3 were about equal to Camry and Accord COMBINED in September. Sick.