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Just before the "you're welcome"
I vote Elon Musk be retitled "not the" Chairman and he can use his "not a" flamethrower on anyone who objects to his title change.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
elon trolling before Tesla announces a great Chairman pick
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not that Musk is like Gandhi - but, Gandhi had no official position. He was not even a member of the Congress (party) that was the main force behind independence fight from the British.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Our posse is totally bummed that he is no longer Chief Architect. For the love of Heloise, what's next? Who is taking over the Chief Architect duties?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
BREAKING: Elon to retain title as President of Tesla:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk Verified account @elonmusk
"Legally required officers of a corporation are president, treasurer & secretary. Guess I have to keep 1st one or it will confuse the authorities."
3:06 PM (PDT) - 29 Oct 2018
Elon Musk on Twitter
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
They way nsdq futures are heading, TOMORROW might yield capitulation. Even though today was an over 800+ reversal (ITD), we probably need ANOTHER 5% to the downside on the NSDQ. Everything will get taken out regardless, so be cautious. I know nobody will believe this, but stocks that are UP will be used to buy more stocks that are DOWN. So, as much as everyone may think we're off to 420, at 330$ (AH) this is still an ATM from mid year, last WEEK, etc. Profits will be used to buy better % gains going forward. The chance that TESLA goes up 30% from here SOON is low, but the chance that SQ, or AMZN or V or F even goes up 30% from these levels is much higher. Money chases opportunity, not fundamentals.
While I don't think you needed to be quite so rude about it, you provided a good answer. I had the same question Analyst007 had - because I have mistakenly been thinking there was a fixed number of shares at stake, hence our confusion when we hear that stock price doesn't matter.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Not remotely historically accurate -- google "Gunboat Diplomacy". There's a long history of countries like England invading countries which have large English investments, often at the behest of the investors, in fact. Much of the conquest of India was done for this reason...
In fact, you don't go to war with a place which manufactures everything crucial to your economy. Which is why nobody at all is going to attack China.
I'm not sure why you'd need to rewire them just for the LED conversion. Unless they have a particular flavor of "bulb" which is somehow uncommon, they should be able to get a retrofit LED module that includes power conversion and all that and thus can be changed out like a failed bulb replacement.
Though, a complete replacement with new "bulb" housing and etc can be beneficial for optimal light dispersion. In my town they've been replacing the old arc lamp street lights with LED lights for the last couple of years, and they replace the whole pole while they're at it (but not the wiring to the poles, just the poles themselves), and the new poles have different arm / light head design that is more optimal for the LED modules. We get way better street lighting with the new LED modules, and the city saves some money on energy costs. win-win! None of ours are gaining EV charging but that's because these are almost all along the medians of roads, etc - there's very little parking area along roads for which such a system would be useful for (and those few places that are more "european style" typically have L1 or L2 chargers going in already - there's not many such places but they're trendier/more upscale so they get the EV chargers).
edit: Or perhaps you're saying HV like 480V or higher, vs 220/240V for the lamps? I guess that's possible, but most street lamps I've seen are 220/240V range. Again, trivial to design a retrofit bulb that can handle 480V or whatever, but that would cause a problem for EV charging.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Doing some playing around with numbers, and here I've finally seen the "Amazon moment" that @Fact Checking talks about. It was more surprising honesty than what I'd thought it would be.
After finally getting over the hump of it's do-or-die Model 3 ramp, Tesla looks to be heading towards an operating cash flow of around 20% of revenues, but lets assume after next year, Tesla decides to grow at about 35% per year, and therefore it's OCF drops to an average 15% from having half of it's production mature at ~20%, and half in various stages of being ramped averaging ~10%. Lets also assume that at the end of 2019, it decides it's going to raise capital again, but only at a rate that causes debt to decline faster than revenue.
The result is that, starting in 2020, Tesla can afford a literal effing explosion in capex spending! Those numbers in yellow are equal to or greater than what the big boys (VW, Daimler, GM, Ford, etc) spend, only without huge chunks of it going to maintaining soon-to-be worthless ICE manufacturing capacity. It could spend more in a year easy, than it did during the entire 2016-2019 M3 ramp!
Tesla from 2017 to 2019 does a complete 180. It goes from a company with large relative amounts of debt, and poor operating cashflow, to a company with booku cashflow and little relative debt. Most other auto manufacturers have debt at 70-100% or revenue.
The "Debt interest" number is a theoretical number that applies a 6% interest to the debt. The OCF-DI is operating cashflow minus the cost to service debt, again a theoretical number just for a gauge of how much free money it can throw without increasing debt.
The big boys in the Auto industry generally have OCF in the $10-16 billion range, and if you take out debt service, much less. They also have little to no revenue growth, so they can't add much (Or any in the case of manufacturers with no growth) total debt without relative levels increasing... Tesla, on the other hand, can raise billions in capital and have relative debt levels decrease!
People in the launch business a few years ago used to talk about the "SpaceX Steamroller" as the investments they made in re-usable rockets finally started to pay off starting about 2017.... Next year I think we'll be starting to talk about the "Tesla steamroller."
In general I agree. But Tesla will have to spend on Capex in 2019 to maintain that growth long enough to get to that 2020 jump. China financing will be a big chunk and they do not have to spend much to go from 7k/w to 10k/w at Fremont, probably more that what is listed there. But in general it will be much cheaper then the last 3-4 years when they were building out the GF1/GF2 and Model 3 capacity.
In particular duplicating lines is going to be very capex efficient because they dont have to start paying on that equipment until its in place and operational. Since they are not inventing the lines form nothing this time around, that will mean that the lines will start producing revenues about the time the start incurring the largest chunks of capex. Certainly there will be capex that falls outside of this, but the big chunks paid for thousands of robots, will come due 30 days after they are validated as functioning within spec. Which they will test by programming them to make model 3s. Copy, Paste, dominate.
Same goes for battery cell and packs. They will take known system, conflagrations and layouts... with only a few iterative tweaks for further optimization of course. All of this pain of production hell will be streamlined to an extent. Certainly there will be some hell to get through, but it will be an order of magnitude smaller. Only time will tell, but I think Tesla is finally being Conservative and sand bagging the timeline for GF3 in China.
Thanks for the info from your experience in the "biz". I'd *suspected* this but I figured maybe I was being too paranoid in assuming that they were all doing it.
People who get pickups for work are going to count the $$$.
Remind me what use Murdoch is again?
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